Through all the College Football Playoff chaos, the Big 12 could still be a two-big league after all; BYU just has to beat Texas Tech and avenge a 29-7 whipping from earlier this season. The Cougars have been in the playoff race for much of the season, but a late season loss has them on the outside of the field. They most likely can only get in with a win over Texas Tech.
As for the Red Raiders, they’re pretty much playoff locks as even a loss in the title game should boot them out of the field altogether. Ironically, the conference that brought all the chaos in the first, 12-team playoff field has the most clarity entering championship weekend.
Here’s what is at stake for BYU and Texas Tech ahead of the Big 12 title game and what it means for the CFP field.
What a Texas Tech win in Big 12 title game means for CFP field
Texas Tech handled business this season with their lone loss coming to Arizona State. That means as the No. 4 team in the CFP field, they can’t be knocked out with a loss. But what good is just making the CFP when you can leave Saturday having a month to prepare for your CFP game.
The Red Raiders have the No. 4 seed and first round bye at stake for them with a win over BYU. It’s a bad omen having the first round bye though, with all four teams going winless in last year’s playoff field. That said, having extra time to prepare, get healthy and game plan is critical when the stakes are as high as a national championship.
While Texas Tech doesn’t have to play to get into the CFP, they’ll certainly want to snag one of those first round byes and with a win should do that. Texas Tech has been one of the strongest teams in college football this year and the best way to validate that is to finish as one of the top four seeds in the CFP field.
What's at stake for Texas Tech: A first-round bye
BYU needs a win to get into the field and should rely on help with a loss
BYU’s path to the CFP field isn’t quite as easy as Texas Tech’s is. The Cougars have to win to get in. Though they could sneak in with a loss, I wouldn’t rely on that as a BYU fan. Entering Saturday, the Cougars are ranked No. 11 and thanks to automatic bid for conference championship winners, are outside the field right now.
The Cougars could sneak into the CFP field with a loss, if Alabama loses as well. BYU’s only losses would have been to Texas Tech, with the second one coming in the Big 12 title game. The CFP selection committee has mentioned in years past that losing in the conference title game wouldn’t be an indictment on your CFP seeding, though they haven’t necessarily validated that this year.
Last year, SMU lost to Clemson in the ACC title game and both managed to get into the CFP so you’d like to think if both Bama and BYU lose, one of them has to get in. The one thing going against BYU is that they’re currently ranked below Bama, so they shouldn’t realistically jump ahead of them as much as the committee pushing Bama down the rankings being a three-loss team.
BYU’s biggest focus should simply be winning. The CFP selection committee is too unpredictable to rely on them to do the right thing even if they lose. The SEC title game is the only conference championship game that will impact them. The easiest thing for BYU to do is control what they can control, which is upsetting Texas Tech to ensure they get into the CFP field.