And then there were four. The College Football Playoff semifinals kickoff Thursday and Friday and with it, a lot of hype around who will play for the CFP national championship. Can Indiana beat Oregon for the second time this season and remain the only undefeated program? Will Miami continue its miracle playoff run?
From the matchups to the spreads, there’s a lot to dive into ahead of the CFP semifinal games. Here’s everything you need to know about each semifinal game.
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: No. 10 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels
Matchup to watch: How does Trinidad Chambliss play against Miami’s defense?
Trinidad Chambliss quite literally ran circles around Georgia’s defensive line in the Sugar Bowl last week. Let’s not forget, though, Rueben Bain Jr. and this Miami defense made a mockery of Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. Chambliss can’t come in and think he’s immediately going to have the same success he did against Georgia. That said, Miami can’t play relaxed on him either.
This will be a great matchup to see how well Chambliss plays against arguably the best defensive line in the country. It will show us if Chambliss is all that’s hyped up to be or he just had a really good game against a rusty Georgia team. It will also show how good Miami’s defensive line is.
If the Hurricanes defensive front can contain Chambliss from extending plays and making circus throws like he did against Georgia, then it might be what sends them to the national championship game.
What’s the spread for Miami vs. Ole Miss?
Spread: Miami (-3.5)
Miami is the favorite in this one, which is a bit odd to me. The Hurricanes are coming off a big win over Ohio State, but Ole Miss has been running the score up on teams this year. They only scored less 24 points twice this season. They pile it on teams and Miami hasn’t been in a lot of shootouts.
This game will come down to how well Miami contains Ole Miss’s high-octane offense. I like Ole Miss better just because even the best defenses Ole Miss has seen haven't been able to keep them from scoring a lot. I don’t see that changing against Miami, even with their defense being as talented as it is.
Stats that will decide Miami vs. Ole Miss
- Ole Miss is averaging 315.9 passing yards per game (3rd in country)
- Ole Miss is averaging 37.6 ppg (12th in country)
- Miami is averaging 13.4 ppg against (4th in country)
This game will be all about the amount of points scored. If Ole Miss can score like they have all season, that will be key for them and their success. Miami is good at keeping teams from scoring, but they haven’t seen an offense like Ole Miss’s. You could argue that Ohio State’s is better than Ole Miss, though they didn’t really see an elite defense all year. The two times they did, they didn’t score more than two touchdowns in either game.
Miami will have to keep Ole Miss from running the score up. Georgia held Ole Miss to under 20 points for most of the game until the Rebels teed off on them. Miami not only has to contain them, but they have to keep them from catching fire as well.
Prediction: Ole Miss 34, Miami 24
This feels like a game Ole Miss will run away with. The Hurricanes defense is good and should be able to contain Ole Miss, but there's something about Trinidad Chambliss that I’m just not going to go against him. In college, when players catch fire, they’re tough to cool off and Chambliss is one of the hottest players in the CFP field.
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: No. 5 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers
Matchup to watch: Dante Moore vs. Fernando Mendoza
Since it doesn’t seem like anybody is going to slow down Fernando Mendoza, we just have to strap in and appreciate what could be one of the best quarterback matchups this season. Dante Moore is hitting his stride and after leading a shutout win over Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl, it feels like this could be a classic quarterback duel.
Last matchup between these two teams, both quarterbacks turned the ball over and didn’t quite live up to the shootout we all thought it would be. The way both offenses are playing now, this feels very much like a game where the offenses take over and the defenses just can’t keep up.
What’s the spread for Oregon vs. Indiana?
Spread: Indiana (-3.5)
This shouldn’t be a surprise that Indiana is favored going into the game. After all, the Hoosiers won by 10 the first time around and haven’t lost a game yet this season. They just whooped Alabama, holding them to three points and held previously top ranked Ohio State to 13 points. I wouldn’t think too much into who’s favored, though, this will be a good game regardless.
Stats that will decide Oregon vs. Indiana
- Indiana is averaging 41.6 ppg (3rd in the country)
- Indiana is averaging 10.3 ppg against (2nd in country)
- Oregon is averaging 10.3 ppg against (2nd in country)
Don’t get too wrapped up in those defensive numbers. This will be a game about the offenses. Sure, the defenses will still have an effect on the game, but Moore and Mendoza are the consensus No. 1 and No. 2 quarterbacks in the upcoming NFL Draft. They will take the spotlight and they will dictate how this game goes. It should be every bit as good as it’s hyped up to be, honestly.
Prediction: Indiana 31, Oregon 28
This game should be just as exciting as the Georgia-Ole Miss game in that there will be two offenses going at it all game. The hype around who the No. 1 quarterback should be will be decided in the Peach Bowl and Mendoza fortifies that. I personally think Moore is maybe the better NFL prospect, but I’m not going against Mendoza or Curt Cignetti. They’ve been the team to beat all year and every time they’ve been doubted, they pull through.
Oregon is a good team and well coached by Dan Lanning. Both Lanning and Cignetti are Nick Saban disciples. This will be a game of chess featuring two elite offenses. Indiana gets the narrow win and continues their dream season with a shot at a national championship.