Another weekend, another 72 hours of pure, unbridled chaos around college football. Week 3 might have been our wildest yet this season, from Georgia Tech's raucous upset of Clemson to Texas A&M's stunning road win over Notre Dame to Vanderbilt taking it to South Carolina in Columbia to LSU intercepting DJ Lagway five times in a win over Florida.
[deep exhale] Got all that? Good. So, now that the dust is settled, where does that leave us? Well, exhausted and with conference title races already in chaos, for one thing. But what about the College Football Playoff? It's never too early to start looking ahead, so let's do just that by breaking down which stocks were buying, selling and holding when it comes to CFP chances in a few months.
College Football Playoff stock report: Buy
Georgia Tech
Buzz buzz, baby. Another ranked team coming to Bobby Dodd, another statement win for Brent Key — and this time, after Aidan Birr's fire-drill 55-yard field goal as time expired against Clemson, the Jackets look like much more than just a plucky underdog story.
Georgia Tech has survived a trip to Colorado and a visit from the Tigers, and now the rest of their schedule includes ... a grand total of one game against a ranked opponent, the season-ending showdown with Georgia. There are some potentially tricky road trips here to Duke, NC State and Boston College, and the health of QB Haynes King is always a source of concern. Right now, though, the Jackets look like the best team in the ACC not named Florida State or Miami, and conveniently enough they won't have to play either in the regular season.
Even if Tech falls to the Dawgs on Thanksgiving, they still have a great chance to head to the ACC title game at 11-1, in which case a loss to the Noles or Canes might not doom their Playoff hopes.
Tennessee
The Vols looked to be in control of their game against Georgia for much of Saturday afternoon, and if the normally reliable Max Gilbert makes a field goal at the end of regulation, we're talking about Josh Heupel's team as a legitimate SEC favorite.
Of course, ifs and buts don't get you much in college football, and Tennessee didn't seal the deal. But this is still a very good team, and the schedule is among the friendlier in the conference from here: The Vols figure to be favored in every game coming home save for maybe a trip to Alabama on the third Saturday in October, and the only other currently ranked opponent on the slate is Oklahoma.
The loss to Georgia did wipe out most if not all of Tennessee's margin for error. They might not need much anyway, though, and I think the committee would look kindly on this team if it got to the finish line at 10-2.
Missouri
We keep trying to write off Eli Drinkwitz, but he just keeps forgetting to write back. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Mizzou without QB Brady Cook or WR Luther Burden III. But while it's still early, and the Tigers have yet to be truly tested after a relatively weak non-conference slate ... boy, this team sure does look impressive right now.
Beau Pribula can sling it! Ahmad Hardy is the most underrated running back in the country! This offense has averaged at least seven yards per play against Central Arkansas, Kansas and Louisiana! They're going to score a lot of points this season, and if the defense can at least hold serve, we're looking at a legit top-15 team at worst.
Which, with this schedule, might be good enough. Missouri has trips to Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Auburn and Arkansas still to come, plus a visit from Alabama and Texas A&M. With the way this team has been playing, though, a 7-2 close to the season doesn't seem too far-fetched. Beat Vandy, Auburn and Arkansas, split those home showdowns and suddenly you're at 10-2 with a couple marquee wins on the resume. In a year like this, that might get the job done.
College Football Playoff stock report: Hold
Texas
I won't lie: I'm officially concerned about the way Arch Manning and this offense looks right now. Manning sure does seem to be nursing some sort of arm or shoulder injury — it's the most logical explanation for how he went 11-for-25 for 114 yards in a slog of a win this weekend against UTEP — and the Horns can't lean on their running game with a rebuilt offensive line and backs Tre Wisner and CJ Baxter both hurt. The vibes are not great right now, and there's already one loss on the resume.
I'm not selling just yet, though. Texas has Sam Houston State coming up in Week 4, followed by a much-needed bye week before the start of conference play. Get Manning's health right, regroup and I still can see this team getting hot and looking more like the title contender we expected to see.
It helps that the schedule isn't too arduous from here. Even if Texas drops its trip to Georgia in October, a second loss to a top-five team won't eliminate them from CFP contention. And outside of that, the only other currently ranked opponent is Texas A&M, which comes to Austin at the end of the regular season. I don't feel great about it, but I'm also not throwing in the towel. I trust Steve Sarkisian too much.
Notre Dame
I hope everyone's ready for another round of "how good is Notre Dame, really?", because we're almost certainly going to get one in a few months' time.
Yes, the Irish are reeling at 0-2 after a shocking home loss to A&M. And yes, Chris Ash appears to have been a disastrous choice to replace departed DC Al Golden. But CJ Carr is taking steps every week at quarterback, giving hope that this offense could potentially be dynamite before too long. And just as importantly, this schedule is ... let's just say friendly. A trip to Arkansas looks trickier than expected, and there's a home game against USC to worry about, but that's about it in the way of losable games for the rest of the year.
All of which suggests that the Irish could well get to the finish line at 10-2. And if that's the case, boy, I do not envy the committee's job trying to make sense of this resume. They're going to be squarely in the mix, though, and that's enough for me to hold here.
Alabama
Lord help me, I just can't quit Kalen DeBoer. He's won literally everywhere he's been in his coaching career, and while the season opener against Florida State was a nightmare, the Tide have done all they can to assuage the fan base's fears since.
Their 38-14 win over Wisconsin on Saturday wasn't nearly as close as that scoreline would suggest: Alabama averaged a sizzling 8.7 yards per play compared to just 4.1 for the Badgers, while Ty Simpson was once again almost perfect (24-for-29, 382 yards, four TDs). I still need to see this team do it in a marquee spot to fully buy in, but this team was a competent QB away from tapping into one of the most talented rosters in the country — and Simpson sure seems to be clearing that bar.
Maybe the FSU debacle was just a team that got blitzed in a rabid environment while trying to break in a new starter under center. I'm not putting the Tide in the "buy" category because of how hard the schedule is from here, including trips to Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn and visits from Vandy, Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma. I'm not writing them off, either, because I still believe this team is good enough to get very hot.
College Football Playoff stock report: Sell
Clemson
Yeah, it's over. The reality of the ACC is that the Tigers still have a chance to run the table and finish 10-2, although games against SMU, Florida State, Louisville and South Carolina still loom. More to the point, though: Does anyone actually think this Clemson team has what it takes to win nine games in a row?
Cade Klubnik was a gamer on Saturday, but Garrett Riley makes life way too hard on his quarterback; watching Clemson's offense compared to Buster Faulkner's Georgia Tech attack on the other side was shocking. And a Clemson defense that was supposed to get back to the vintage units of yore has had an awfully hard time coming up with disruptive plays.
Maybe the starry names all decide to start playing like it. Maybe Dabo Swinney circles the wagons. Really, though, I was lukewarm on Clemson as a legit title contender to start the year, and this start only confirms that this program has fallen down a rung in the sport's pecking order.
South Carolina
Speaking of preseason darlings that had reasons for concern under the hood. Hopes were high for the Gamecocks thanks to the return of LaNorris Sellers and Dylan Stewart from last year's 9-3 squad that finished as hot as anyone. But that optimism ignored the fact that Sellers and Stewart were just about the only proven producers coming back to Columbia this season.
Sellers still doesn't have anything in the way of skill position help, forcing him to try and carry this offense on his back. And the defense really misses Kyle Kennard, Nick Emmanwori and other pieces from last year's unit. The result? A punchless 31-7 loss at home to Vanderbilt that has now erased nearly all of South Carolina's margin for error for the rest of the year.
That's not great, considering that there are still trips to Missouri, LSU, Ole Miss and A&M on tap, to say nothing of home games against Oklahoma, Alabama and Clemson. Good luck navigating that gauntlet without a functional passing game and a mediocre offensive line.
Vanderbilt
Maybe it's strange to also be selling the team that came into Williams-Brice and stomped the Gamecocks, but I think we need to pump the brakes a bit here.
I love Diego Pavia as much as anyone, and I understand why the hype is kicking into overdrive after consecutive big road wins against Virginia Tech and South Carolina. That said, I think the last two wins say as much if not more about their opponents than they do about the Commodores; Vandy was actually out-gained on a yards per play basis on Saturday.
I also think this schedule doesn't do them any favors. There are trips to Alabama, Texas and Tennessee along with home games against LSU, Missouri and Auburn. Maybe I'm a hater, but I think there are at least two losses in that list. And while a 10-2 Commodores team would at least garner Playoff consideration, I have a hard time believing they'd stand out enough to make the 12-team field. And again, that's assuming they manage to go 4-2 against a group of six top-20 teams.
Illinois
Perhaps this is counter-intuitive given that the Illini are at 3-0 after non-conference wins over Western Illinois, Duke and Western Michigan. But this is more about the teams around them than Illinois itself: The bottom half of the Big Ten looks to once again be pretty dire, especially after Minnesota and Wisconsin lost big non-conference games on Saturday.
That presents a problem for an Illini team that doesn't have too many chances for marquee, attention-grabbing wins. Let's assume that Illinois manages to survive the showdown with Indiana next week (a blockbuster game with huge CFP implications). Ohio State figures to be a loss, in which case the Illini will end the season at 11-1 with ... maybe a single ranked win, depending on how the Hoosiers finish. Seriously: There are no other currently ranked teams on the schedule.
Will that be enough? The guess here is no, not with how many teams figure to be sitting at 10-2 with more robust resumes.