College Football Rankings: Projected Week 12 AP Top 25
The Alabama Crimson Tide had a tricky spot against rival LSU as they tried to hold onto their Top 5 spot in the AP Top 25 college football rankings, but they didn't really ever find themselves in any peril in a dominant effort. However, while the Texas Tech Red Raiders could say the same in Week 11 in handing BYU its first loss, teams like the Indiana Hoosiers and Oregon Ducks had fans on the edges of their seat. They avoided the same upset fate that Virginia and Louisville suffered, but just barely. And now, we have to figure out what the latest AP poll will look like.
Looking forward to the Week 12 AP Top 25 rankings, though, it’s important to remember what spot we’re at on the calendar. With the release of the first CFP rankings this past week, this is when we see AP voters tend to make some changes to their ballots in the way of mimicry. I don’t love it at all, but it’s the way it is. So what we’re likely to see happen is that the results on Saturday and otherwise and how the rankings shift will largely be based on what the College Football Playoff Selection Committee put forth — including where some teams that didn’t even play fit in.
But after big wins from teams like Texas Tech, Oregon, A&M and so on, here’s what we project the AP Top 25 college football rankings will look like when they come out on Sunday at 2 p.m. ET.
Dropped Out of Rankings: Missouri Tigers (19), Memphis Tigers (22), Washington Huskies (24)
No. 25-21
25. Cincinnati Bearcats
Make no mistake, our last look at Cincinnati didn't leave a great taste in our mouth. The Bearcats got their doors blown off by Utah last week and, as such, were not in the Top 25 of the CFP rankings. But with so many losses on Saturday from teams at the back end of the rankings, it makes the most sense to re-insert Cincy into the 25th spot in the rankings. With games against UCF, BYU and TCU still remaining, though, they can still finish with a bit of a statement that will affirm them as a Top 25 team.
24. South Florida Bulls
Everything that could've gone USF's way this week in The American happened. Memphis took its second loss in conference play on Friday night, after the Bulls had already hung a 50-burger on the Roadrunners to topple UTSA handily. With the win over North Texas already under their belt, Alex Golesh's team is going to be back in the College Football Playoff mix once again, particularly now that their path to a conference title seemingly just got easier.
23. James Madison Dukes
It's time we give the James Madison Dukes their due. This team is undefeated in Sun Belt play while the top teams in The American beat up one another, and JMU also only has just the one loss on the season overall. Alonza Barnett is one of the most fun players in the sport, but as the Group of Five playoff spot remains as up in the air as ever before, there's no reason that the Dukes can't keep taking care of business and snatch that spot that was penciled in for the AAC.
22. Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee didn't have to take the field this week, which came after the selection committee sent them a stern message as just barely cracking the Top 25 at the bottom. The AP poll would've likely reflected that, but it's instead reflected in the fact that the Vols really won't move much from their spot last week. Unfortunately for Josh Heupel's team, though, they really only have the season finale against Vanderbilt left to prove themselves with New Mexico State and Florida as the only other two games on the schedule.
21. Louisville Cardinals
Louisville even being seriously near the Top 12 of the first CFP rankings wasn't fully indicative of what the ACC has been this season. The league, as a whole, is parity-driven with a thick middle but no team at the top. And we saw that in droves with Cal pulling off the shocking upset of the Cardinals to hand Jeff Brohm's team their second loss of the season. The birds with teeth aren't out of the running yet, to be sure, but they are now squarely behind the 8-ball in the conference race without a real clear CFP path.
No. 20-16
20. Pittsburgh Panthers
Though they aren't alone, it feels like this was another week in which Pitt is continuing to slip under the radar despite being a real threat. Off in Week 11, the Panthers sneakily only have one loss in conference play and have as good of a shot as anyone in the ACC of making it to Charlotte. However, if they want to make a real statement, it could come next week with a high-profile showdown against Notre Dame now on deck. A win there, and everyone will be forced to take Pat Narduzzi's team seriously.
19. Virginia Cavaliers
At a certain point, it felt like Virginia was going to get clipped after playing with a ton of fire. Sadly, it took a Chandler Morris injury for the Cavaliers to take their first loss in ACC play this season, falling to a frisky Wake Forest team. But now, UVA’s playoff hopes are thrown for a loop in this situation. While they’re still in line to make the conference title game, the fact of the matter is they now have no cushion, and aren’t playing a brand of football that suggests they can navigate that tight margin for error.
18. Michigan Wolverines
Though Michigan didn’t play this week, the more we see from the rest of the Big Ten, the more I become certain exactly what the Wolverines are. This is a good team that is largely well-coached and has future NFL talent at a lot of spots. They are, however, not a great team and not even really all that close. I’m not sure a high floor is enough to break through into the playoff race, but they still might have a chance of keeping their streak against rival OSU alive.
17. USC Trojans
USC was given a proverbial vote of confidence by the CFP Selection Committee as the fourth-highest ranked Big Ten team in the initial rankings. With Iowa losing, that makes a potential path even clearer for the Trojans, especially when the Trojans still face both the Hawkeyes and Oregon. Despite rumors going wild regarding Lincoln Riley right now, USC can’t be counted out just yet, and their decisive win over Northwestern is only another point of evidence.
16. Miami Hurricanes
It almost felt like Miami was licking its wounds with their CFP hopes going up in flames as they faced a heavily limping Syracuse team and weren’t doing much of anything early on. Whatever was said in the locker room, though, something flipped at halftime and the Canes came out for a dominant final two quarters. The playoff isn’t impossible at this point, but it’s getting late quick for Mario Cristobal’s team, and they’ll need a lot of help to find a realistic path in.
No. 15-11
15. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
On the heels of their disappointing loss to NC State last week and while not playing in Week 11, Georgia Tech actually had a great week. The Virginia and Louisville losses drastically open the door back up for the Yellow Jackets and their College Football Playoff hopes. They obviously still have to avoid another slip up to make it to Charlotte to try and earn the ACC’s autobid, but that task looks much less daunting than it did prior to Saturday.
14. Vanderbilt Commodores
Much like in golf where they don’t put pictures on the scorecard, there are similarly not pictures in the win column. Of course, the eye test matters when it comes to rankings, but Vanderbilt was able to fight tooth and nail with a fiery Hugh Freeze-less Auburn and pull out a win in overtime. With a matchup stil looming against rival Tennessee, the Commodores’ playoff hopes aren’t dead just yet, and Diego Pavia’s heroics may have ultimately kept them alive on Saturday.
13. Utah Utes
Unfortunately for Utah as the team was on bye in Week 11, even BYU’s loss to Texas Tech doesn’t help them all that much in the Big 12 race. However, the Utes did get good news from the CFP Selection Committee with a shockingly high No. 13 ranking. That puts them still within striking distance for an at-large berth. And with what this team looked like in embarrassing Cincinnati last week, they should be able to finish 10-2 and force tough decisions.
12. BYU Cougars
Anyone who was highly dubious of BYU isn’t going to feel much different about the Cougars after their trip to Lubbock. Put simply, we saw this team largely not be able to do much of anything for 60 minutes, or at least in the meaningful action of the contest. Having said that, I don’t expect a crazy fall in the AP Top 25. With other losses behind the Cougs and BYU just now taking its first loss, I’d be shocked if they weren’t comfortably still inside the Top 15.
11. Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma’s brutal schedule was widely documented coming into the season and throughout it. But with just three games remaining, they still have every opportunity to punch their ticket to the College Football Playoff. The Sooners we off in Week 11, but their best chance will be next week as Brent Venables will take his team on the road to face Alabama. If they can get by that and expect more chaos just ahead of them, that should be enough for OU to claim a CFP bid.
No. 10-9
10. Texas Longhorns
After avoiding an embarrassing comeback loss to Vanderbilt last week, Texas is sitting in a great spot, despite being off in Week 11. With BYU losing and moving out of the Top 10, that should push the Longhorns inside both in the AP Top 25 and in the College Football Playoff rankings, which means that Arch Manning and Company, as of now, are inside the CFP field as the final at-large bid.
What’s better for Steve Sarkisian’s team is that they’ll come out of the off week with an opportunity to all but lock that up. Texas will be on the road against Georgia next Saturday in what should be one of the most hotly anticipated games of the week, if not the season. If the Longhorns can pull off the upset of the Dawgs on the road, it’s going to be hard to keep them out of the CFP, no matter what happens in the season finale against Texas A&M.
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Especially after Navy was handed the lead in The American, the narrative for Saturday night’s showdown became Notre Dame facing their biggest test remaining this season. How quickly people forget. That was the same talking point last year against Navy (and Army) as well, and the Fighting Irish demolished both. Some things don’t change, and that was certainly one of them in a cold, wet South Bend.
With rain and snow falling at Notre Dame Stadium, the Irish left no doubt. They stonewalled the triple option in this matchup from start to finish, but what was more impressive was that it wasn’t just the Irish rushing attack that dominated as C.J. Carr also had a big night. While their ranking might still be a big high for my liking, this team is just now starting to play its best football with the playoff well within sight now.
No. 8-7
8. Oregon Ducks
I’m simply forced to give Oregon their due. A trip to play gritty Iowa at Kinnick Stadium had me sounding the alarms that the Ducks were on upset alert this week. When I then saw the rain coming down in Iowa City, I was even more convinced that the game was playing into the Hawkeyes’ hands. And while they gave Dan Lanning’s team everything that they could handle, Oregon survived an upset bid with a last-minute field goal.
Dante Moore Jr. didn’t have much success in this game, but stepped up on the final drive for when it mattered most to deliver some of the best throws we saw all day from any team. One thing that was proven, though, was that this Ducks defense is salty. There was no quit, the same of which was true in the running game as well. That’s the type of fight I’ve been needing to see from Oregon, and the team delivering on this stage was big time.
7. Ole Miss Rebels
Essentially since notching the hard-fought win over Oklahoma, the narrative has been that Ole Miss can waltz into the CFP as long as they don’t trip over their own feet. This week was undoubtedly an example of exactly that as the Rebels hosted The Citadel in a buy game. Not shockingly, Trinidad Chambliss and the Ole Miss roster was just overwhelming to the Bulldogs, which resulted in a 49-0 rout that didn’t even feel that close.
It’s great to have a game such as this one late in the season, especially when the Rebs are aiming to finish strong and end the year at just 11-1 overall, which would all but secure a playoff berth. Having said that, we’ve seen Lane Kiffin’s program fall flat inexplicably too many times in recent years to not have our antenna up for an upset, though Ole Miss looks much more put-together as a whole than in any of those prior years.
No. 6-5
6. Texas Tech Red Raiders
I’d been saying for weeks that I was eagerly anticipating Texas Tech getting its shot at BYU, largely due to the fact that I still thought the Red Raiders were the notably superior team in the Big 12, despite the loss to Arizona State earlier in the season. With College GameDay on site in Lubbock, Joey McGuire’s team left absolutely no doubt that was, indeed, the case with a trouncing of the Cougars that gives them full control of the Big 12.
Behren Morton and the offense weren’t perfect by any stretch, but the Red Raiders defense was damn close. Their NFL-caliber talent, most glaringly David Bailey, showed up majorly and made life next to impossible for Bear Bachmeier and Company in this game. With the win over BYU now out of the way, the path is wide open for Texas Tech to now skip-to-my-lou through the rest of the regular season and right into the College Football Playoff.
5. Georgia Bulldogs
With the gargantuan matchup against Texas looming next week for Georgia, there was no shortage of people who looked at the Week 11 slate and thought that the Dawgs could find themselves in trouble on Saturday with a trip to Starkville to take on Mississippi State among a sea of cowbells. Those concerns, however, turned out to be completely unfounded. While the defense continues to not be perfect, Gunner Stockton and the offense are humming at an extremely high level.
Stockton had a big day overall, but was bolstered further by a huge 12-carry, 181-yard day from Nate Frazier. When the Dawgs are able to run the ball at that level with the multitude of weapons they have in the passing game, it’s hard for any defense to slow them down, much less Mississippi State. Again, the Longhorns loom large in the next outing, but Georgia continues to take care of its business.
No. 4-3
4. Alabama Crimson Tide
There was the possibility of a dead-cat-bounce game for LSU in a rivalry matchup with Alabama on Saturday night, even in Tuscaloosa. With the Crimson Tide facing Oklahoma next week as well, the signs of a trap game were all there for Kalen DeBoer and his team. And while it wasn’t pretty for the entire 60 minutes, it was dominant as Bama felt in full control for most of the game and walked away with a hard-fought but ultimately comfortable win.
Given what LSU’s offense has looked like this season, it wasn’t all that shocking to see them stifle Garrett Nussmeier to the point that he was benched. However, the Tigers defense hasn’t been the issue all season, but Alabama still found enough in a versatile attack, once again led by a great outing from Ty Simpson, to get the job done. Oklahoma will be another tall task, but it’s becoming impossible to doubt the Tide with what they show us week in and week out.
3. Texas A&M Aggies
Just a few weeks ago, Texas A&M going on the road to Columbia to face Missouri could’ve been one of the best SEC matchups of the season. Unfortunately, when Beau Pribula went down for the Tigers, that dramatically changed the outlook for the rest of the season when it comes to Eli Drinkwitz’s team. Given that, however, it was impressive still how the Aggies took care of business easily, including against the Mizzou defense.
Rueben Owens and Marcel Reed had big days to lead the way, and that was really all A&M would’ve needed with how thoroughly the defense stifled Matt Zollers and the Tigers offense. There was nothing we saw on the road to make anyone think twice about Mike Elko’s team being inside the Top 3 of the rankings, and that’s going to be the case until proven otherwise. It’s largely a matter of us knowing the Aggies are good, but needing to see if they’re truly great.
No. 2-1
2. Indiana Hoosiers
Early on in Happy Valley, it seemed as if we might be in store for yet another Indiana runaway victory, as they were handling business against Penn State on both sides of the ball. But even after five straight losses, we know the talent that the Nittany Lions have in the program. We finally saw that fight in a post-James Franklin world as they clawed back and had a four-point lead in the final minutes of action.
That’s when we got to see what makes this Hoosiers team so special, though. Fernando Mendoza put together his Heisman moment with an electric drive down the field punctuated by the go-ahead and eventual game-winning score with a ridiculous catch by Omar Cooper Jr. It’s definitely a game that Indiana can grow from, especially with their run defense. However, there’s no questioning the makeup of this team as Curt Cignetti now has back-to-back 10-win seasons.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
If you happened to flip over to Ohio State-Purdue near the end of the first quarter, I imagine your shock was the same as mine in seeing the Boilermakers having clawed out to a 3-0 lead. Of course, that didn’t remotely hold as the Buckeyes pulled away for a 34-10 victory that wasn’t in question from halftime on. However, that’s another questionable start for Ryan Day’s team in which they had to hit the gas after a certain point, which does raise some questions.
Make no mistake, the peak of what we’ve seen from the Buckeyes to this point is why they’re the top-ranked team in college football. Julian Sayin continues playing well, Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate are the studs they are, and this defense has one playmaker after another stepping up. Yet, for a team that truly hasn’t been battle-tested since Week 1, you do have to wonder how that could affect them in the College Football Playoff — though the fact that we’re talking about such a postseason fate as a formality, again, speaks to the extremely high baseline at Ohio State.