College Football Rankings: Projected Week 15 AP Top 25
College football is never as weird and wild as it is in rivalry week for the last games of the regular season. Only then can you see the struggling Auburn Tigers take the Alabama Crimson Tide to the brink with the SEC Championship Game hopes on the line. That's the only time you'll see an unbeaten Texas A&M Aggies group get out-classed and out-matched by the disappointing Texas Longhorns. And only then will you see Ohio State end its four-year losing streak to rival Michigan. But now we have to sort out the AP Top 25 college football rankings in the aftermath.
Outside of A&M, there weren't a ton of upsets in rivalry week, but there were some — not the least of which was SMU falling at Cal, which somehow pushed Duke into the ACC Championship Game. However, there were some big wins and plenty of chaos. So now we have to sort that all out as we project the final AP Top 25 rankings of the regular season and leading into conference title games.
Dropped out of rankings: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (23), Pittsburgh Panthers (24), SMU Mustangs (25)
No. 25-21
25. Missouri Tigers
Mizzou beat rival Arkansas to end its regular season on Saturday, but it has to feel like a season of what-if for the Tigers. What if Beau Pribula hadn’t gotten hurt? What if they had held up slightly better defensively against Alabama? Regardless, it still seems like Eli Drinkwitz is staying, which is massive for the Missouri program. He's injected real life into this team, and they will be a Top 25 threat again next year, as they stay on this trajectory.
24. Navy Midshipmen
In the lone Thanksgiving Day game we got in college football, Navy did what it could to make the American title game with a big win over Memphis. The Midshipmen fell short. However, Navy was already on the cusp of cracking the Top 25, and the win over the Tigers should propel them back in. This has been a gritty year for Blake Horvath and Company this year, and they deserve plenty of credit for staying in the fight as long as they did.
23. Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee should get the somewhat dubious honor of being a four-loss team that still holds a spot in the AP Top 25. And I’m going to be the one to tell Vols fans that they should feel good after the season that just transpired in Knoxville. Joey Aguilar was a fine stopgap, and going 8-4 after losing a 5-star quarterback — even if a disappointment — is nothing to scoff at. The future remains bright under Josh Heupel.
22. Arizona Wildcats
It feels like next to no one has even given Arizona the time of day this season, which just looks silly right now as Brent Brennan finished the season with a rivalry win over Arizona State and had the Wildcats finishing 9-3 on the year. Noah Fifita and this team have played their tails off as a balanced, fierce commodity and, while they won’t play for a Big 12 title, they certainly deserve a spot in the final AP Top 25 of the regular season.
21. Michigan Wolverines
The four-game winning streak for Michigan in The Game ended on Saturday. It was a spirited effort early on from the Wolverines, but the refrain I’ve repeated time and again this season kept holding true. Bryce Underwood isn’t quite ready yet to elevate the ceiling of this team, and you need a ceiling to beat a team like Ohio State, even in Ann Arbor. It’s still a nice year for Michigan, but more exciting should be the future of what could happen in 2026 or 2027 with Underwood at the helm.
No. 20-16
20. Tulane Green Wave
While the AP Top 25 hasn’t necessarily agreed to this point, the CFP selection committee has been giving Tulane all of its due to this point. And to be clear, Jon Sumrall’s team has earned it, and continued to do so with a shutout win over Charlotte that puts the Green Wave into the American Conference Championship Game. While they aren’t my favorite in the conference, though, a win in that bout with North Texas would all but assure that Tulane makes the playoff.
19. North Texas Mean Green
To keep the dream alive, North Texas needed to win just one more home game on Friday night, and they were able to do so with authority against Temple. The high-octane Mean Green offense put up another 50-burger for their mantle in the big win that puts them in the America title game, where they’ll face the aforementioned Green Wave. I’ve been a proponent of the idea that North Texas is the most deserving CFP candidate in the American, and now they have the chance to prove exactly that.
18. James Madison Dukes
Even if the CFP selection committee appears steadfast in not giving James Madison any credit, the Dukes have been trying to earn their attention week in and week out. This week, it was the Dukes finishing their dominant regular season in the Sun Belt with a thorough dismantling of Coastal on the road in a 59-10 victory. There’s still a chance for JMU to make its way to the playoff, but a lot of that, outside of just continuing to win, appears to be out of their hands.
17. USC Trojans
In the early going on Saturday night against rival UCLA, it looked like Lincoln Riley might just waste all of the good will he’s built up this season with a loss in this matchup. Thankfully for him, it didn’t come to that as the Trojans found their offense in the second half and continued the narrative that the final 30 minutes is their time to shine. They won’t be in the Big Ten title game or the CFP, but there’s no other way to see this besides a big step in the right direction for this program after last year.
16. Virginia Cavaliers
All Virginia had to do in order to secure its place in the ACC Championship Game was to get past rival Virginia Tech late on Saturday night. Given the stakes of a rivalry game, you never knew, but the Cavaliers more than took care of business in a big-time performance that at least made their part of the conference title race easy. There’s no telling what will happen with UVA in Charlotte, but as other contenders have stumbled, Virginia has largely been able to keep its footing, and there’s something to be said for that.
No. 15-11
15. Utah Utes
Utah was always fighting an uphill battle to make it into the CFP after early-season losses to both Texas Tech and BYU. That not only put them behind in the overall rankings, but in the Big 12 as well. Ultimately, despite those being the only two losses on the year for the Utes following the final win over Kansas on Friday, that’s how things played out. It’s still a phenomenal year for Utah, though, and Devon Dampier’s return next season will have them right back in the mix.
14. Texas Longhorns
Texas is going to represent a fascinating test case for the selection committee now with a win over Texas A&M further complicating their résumé. They have three wins over teams inside the Top 15 of the latest CFP rankings, but also have a loss to Florida and three total losses working against them (though, losses to Ohio State and Georgia certainly aren’t bad). That’s going to beg the question if the Longhorns could be the first three-loss team to make the playoff. I wouldn’t bet on it, but there’s definitely a case to be made.
13. Miami Hurricanes
The final score will show pure dominance on the part of Miami against Pitt in a must-win game, and to be sure, the Canes controlled every bit of this game. Having said that, they also played most of the contest after Pitt lost Mason Heintschel. In any case, the Hurricanes needed a lot of help to have a true CFP at-large case or a shot at the ACC title game, and they didn’t get enough. It’s another season that’s ultimately a case of “what if” for Mario Cristobal.
12. Vanderbilt Commodores
In all likelihood, Vanderbilt won’t make it into the College Football Playoff. I’m not going to argue that they deserve to based on résumé, but man, it sure feels like the Commodores deserve it in terms of pure vibes after finishing the regular season with an exclamation point victory over rival Tennessee. Diego Pavia has been electric all year long, and this is one of the most fun Vandy teams in recent memories. The good news: It doesn’t look like this will be the last hoorah for this program under Clark Lea.
11. BYU Cougars
It certainly looked like BYU was a team that knew it had its spot in the Big 12 Championship Game already locked up entering their regular-season finale against UCF, as the Knights jumped out to a 14-0 lead. But the Cougars got their wits about them and then turned it on to run away for a big victory. BYU likely will remain firmly on the bubble for the College Football Playoff as an at-large candidate, but a win in Arlington would ensure that this team that's been awesome all year will keep dancing.
No. 10-9
10. Alabama Crimson Tide
Nothing is ever easy when you're talking about the Iron Bowl at Jordan Hare, but here we are with Alabama, and they ultimately survived a real upset bid from the Tigers. Ty Simpson put the Crimson Tide on his back once again, and the defense came up with enough stops to push Bama to the 27-20 victory on the road and to earn a berth in the SEC Championship Game and setting up a date for a rematch with Georgia.
What will be fascinating, though, is to see what will happen with Alabama if they were to lose the rematch with the Dawgs. As of right now, they are the last at-large team in the field in the CFP rankings. If they lose, would the committee penalize them and push them out, or respect making it to the SEC title bout? That's what will have Bama fans sweating next week — though a win would eliminate any anxiety.
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Still Playing vs. Stanford)
Notre Dame’s task entering Week 14 seemed pretty simple. If they could go on the road for the final game of the regular season, they would almost surely lock up a spot in the CFB Playoff. Of course, this is college football — and even though Notre Dame entered the game as a heavy, heavy favorite, a rivalry matchup on the road can always lead to some weird things happening.
Having said that, the Irish look like a far different and better team than in their two losses to open the year. And let’s not forget, that pair of defeats came against two teams that have been inside the Top 20 of the rankings virtually all season. This isn’t a Notre Dame team that anyone will want to be forced to match up against in the playoff, which is a good sign that they can actually do some damage.
No. 8-7
8. Oklahoma Sooners
Well, Oklahoma was essentially told that their matchup against LSU was win-and-in — but I don’t think anyone in Norman hoped that the Sooners would take that message so literally and do just the bare minimum in order to get the win over the struggling Tigers. But they did win, 17-13, after a late go-ahead touchdown and another strong defensive outing, and should now be getting ready for the College Football Playoff.
Of course, that doesn’t make how tough sledding it’s been for John Mateer and the OU offense of late any less concerning. This team’s defense is among the best in the country, but that’s only going to take you but so far (if anywhere) in the playoff. They’ll need to try and get healthier and figure some things out with the time off until the first round, but the Sooners have ultimately taken care of business.
7. Texas A&M Aggies
Had Texas A&M gone on the road and taken down the rival Longhorns, there would simply be no room to question the Aggies after an undefeated regular season and a runaway berth in the ACC Championship Game. But that’s not what happened. Instead, A&M took its first loss of the season on Friday night in Austin in a 27-17 defeat, and now it’s wholly deserved that we start to take a closer look at what Mike Elko’s team has actually done this season.
The Aggies have just one win over a team that entered Week 14 ranked, Notre Dame. Meanwhile, Texas A&M also played just one team in SEC play that is in the top-half of the conference standings — and that was the game that the Aggies just lost to Texas. Make no mistake, this team should still be a lock to make the CFP, especially since they won’t play for an SEC title. But with a loss now against them, their seeding is going to be anything but simple.
No. 6-5
6. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Considering that Texas Tech already had its ticket to the Big 12 Championship Game, it would’ve been entirely reasonable if this team came out in the season finale against lowly West Virginia and mailed it in, so to speak. They did no such thing, however, as the Red Raiders put a hurting on the Mountaineers — in Morgantown, no less — that would’ve been impressive in any week, but especially this particular situation.
Texas Tech won 49-0, but did so while out-gaining WVU 572-180 in total yardage. The defense was suffocating and didn’t allow West Virginia to even find a glimmer of hope for 60 minutes, while Behren Morton and the offense were firing on all cylinders. This leaves the Red Raiders with a rematch against BYU looming in Arlington, but the bigger news is that they’re likely locked into a CFP spot regardless of what happens in the conference title bout.
5. Ole Miss Rebels
All of the drama surrounding the future of Lane Kiffin seemingly overshadowed the fact that Ole Miss just finished an 11-win regular season that concluded with a dominant win over rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl. This team is legit, even if they don’t have the strongest résumé in the country, and they’ve continued to prove that with each passing week. At the same time, though, there’s a reason that the Kiffin drama is overshadowiing that.
If Kiffin were to leave the Rebels to take the job at LSU, it’s entirely realistic that Ole Miss would have a new head coach for the College Football Playoff, which would be near unheard of. That would make things truly chaotic for this team, but it wouldn’t necessarily mean that they would be out of it given the talent on the roster and the experience on the staff as well. But for now, the Rebs are a CFP lock, which is an accomplishment in its own right.
No. 4-3
4. Oregon Ducks
While Washington certainly isn’t the team or program that it was at the end of Kalen DeBoer’s tenure in Seattle, it seems like Dan Lanning has solved his issues with the Huskies since arriving at Oregon. After suffering three straight losses with the Ducks in the Cascade Clash, Oregon came out and delivered a stout performance on the road on Saturday to finish the regular season at 11-1 and likely affirm their spot in the playoff.
To me, the defense was the star for Oregon. Washington eventually found some success in Saturday’s game, but not nearly enough — and more importantly, the Ducks put the clamps on early to give themselves a cushion and then just hold the Huskies at bay. As Oregon starts to get healthier and with time off until the CFP begins, they could be a bit of a sleeping giant when it comes to the postseason.
3. Georgia Bulldogs
It’s never pretty when it comes to Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate, but at least it didn’t take Georgia an entire eight overtimes on Friday afternoon to get the win over the rival Yellow Jackets this year. And as we’ve seen over the past few weeks from Mike Bobo and the Bulldogs offense, they leaned heavily on a stout run game and Georgia Tech simply didn’t have an answer for it — nor could they counteract the speed on the Dawgs defense overall either.
Few teams have finished the year as strong as Georgia down the stretch, and that’s even with Gunner Stockton not necessarily being at his peak in the regular-season finale. This team is going to be dangerous in the CFB Playoff, where they are a virtual lock. However, with A&M’s loss, they have an SEC Championship Game rematch against Alabama to worry about before they get to the playoff.
No. 2-1
2. Indiana Hoosiers
Anyone who told you that Indiana was going to have any trouble, even in a rivalry game, against Purdue is a liar and you should probably just remove them from your life. This was a pure, unfiltered mismatch on Friday night as the Hoosiers weren’t even at their best and still embarrassed the rival Boilermakers in a 53-point drubbing. They even managed that with Fernando Mendoza largely looking quite pedestrian.
Despite that, Indiana now has a perfect regular season under its belt and will get an opportunity to exact revenge against Ohio State. I don’t expect the Big Ten Championship Game to look much of anything like the regular-season meeting a year ago, largely because the Hoosiers are vastly improved from then. But it’s still wild to consider just how far Curt Cignetti has taken this Indiana program in such a short time.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
The streak is over, the monkey is off the back, or however the hell else you want to say it — for the first time in five years, Ohio State prevailed over Michigan. Even better, the Buckeyes were able to exorcize their demons inside a snowy Big House on Saturday with an emphatic 27-9 win over the Wolverines. And while Julian Sayin played well after an early interception, it was actually the defense and run game that were the stars in the huge victory.
On a larger scale, though, that victory proved quite a bit about Ohio State. While I never doubted that the Buckeyes were a legit College Football Playoff team, their weak schedule and possible lack of identity had me worried about what would happen if they got hit in the mouth or were forced into a different script. They answered that, and actually drug Michigan into the mud. Now, they get Indiana in the Big Ten title bout, and that’s going to be an absolute doozy.