The story of the ACC in the 2025 college football season has truly been chaos in disappointment. Just when you think a team like the Miami Hurricanes or Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are separating themselves, they've fallen on their faces. That's been true throughout the rest of the conference as well, though. And so it's not all that shocking to see that there are still six teams alive and with a chance to make it to the ACC Championship Game coming into the final week of the regular season.
It's been so confusing leading up to Week 14 with the ACC tiebreakers that we actually thought there were some teams eliminated from that sextet, but that turned out not to be the case. We're still in a spot where virtually every team that was vying for its shot still has a chance, even if it's a small one that will need a ton of help to make happen. But with that, we first need to look at the standings, and then how the six remaining contenders can make the ACC Championship Game.
ACC Championship Game tiebreaker scenarios for Week 14
- ACC standings entering Week 14 Saturday
- How Virginia can make the ACC Championship Game
- How Pitt can make the ACC Championship Game
- How SMU can make the ACC Championship Game
- How Miami can make the ACC Championship Game
- How Georgia Tech can make the ACC Championship Game
- How Duke can make the ACC Championship Game
ACC standings entering Week 14 Saturday
ACC Standings | Conference Record | Overall Record |
|---|---|---|
1. Virginia | 6-1 | 9-2 |
2. Pittsburgh | 6-1 | 8-3 |
3. SMU | 6-1 | 8-3 |
4. Georgia Tech | 6-2 | 9-3 |
5. Miami | 5-2 | 9-2 |
6. Duke | 5-2 | 6-5 |
7. Wake Forest | 4-3 | 8-3 |
8. Clemson | 4-4 | 6-5 |
9. Louisville | 4-4 | 7-4 |
10. California | 3-4 | 6-5 |
11. NC State | 3-4 | 6-5 |
12. Stanford | 3-5 | 4-7 |
13. North Carolina | 2-5 | 4-7 |
14. Virginia Tech | 2-5 | 3-8 |
15. Florida State | 2-6 | 5-6 |
16. Syracuse | 1-6 | 3-8 |
17. Boston College | 0-7 | 1-10 |
How Virginia can make the ACC Championship Game
Scenarios for the Virginia Cavaliers
- Win and in, OR
- Loss + SMU loss + Pitt loss + UNC win vs. NC State
Virginia has the simplest path to the ACC Championship Game of any of their conference peers. With a win against rival Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Cavaliers will punch their ticket to Charlotte. However, as the crazy tiebreakers start to take shape in the league, there is one avenue in which UVA can lose and still make it into the conference title bout.
Should the Hoos get upset in Charlottesville to end the regular season, they would still sneak into the ACC title game if SMU and Pitt also lose, while North Carolina beats NC State in their rivalry game. That's not the likeliest option, though, and it would behoove Virginia to avoid the chaos that has swept across the league all year and just take care of business against the rival Hokies.
How Pitt can make the ACC Championship Game
Scenarios for the Pitt Panthers
- Need a win + Virginia loss, OR
- A win + SMU loss
Following last week's statement win over Georgia Tech, Pitt put itself in great position to make it into the ACC Championship Game. However, the Panthers still don't entirely control their own destiny. It all starts with picking up a win on Saturday at home against Miami. If they don't beat the Hurricanes, they won't make it to Charlotte on any tiebreakers no matter what else happens. However, with a win, they only need a bit of help.
Pitt simply needs one of Virginia and SMU to lose on Saturday in order to make it to the ACC Championship Game against Virginia Tech and Cal, respectively. Both the Cavaliers and Mustangs are favored in those matchups to end the regular season, but SMU does have to go to Berkeley for this game on Saturday night, which could make things tricky. Without question, though, Pat Narduzzi and his team will be watching that game intensely.
How SMU can make the ACC Championship Game
Scenarios for the SMU Mustangs
- Win and in, OR
- Loss + Pitt loss + Duke loss + Virginia win + UNC win, OR
- Loss + Pitt loss + Duke loss + Virginia win + NC State win + Boston College win + Higher SportSource Analytics ranking than Miami and Georgia Tech, OR
- Loss + Pitt loss + Duke loss + Virginia loss + UNC win + Boston College win + Higher SportSource Analytics ranking than Miami and Georgia Tech
Obviously, the easiest path to Charlotte for SMU — which would make the second trip to the ACC title game in as many years since joining the conference — would be to beat Cal on the road on Saturday night. With a tiebreaker over Pitt based on conference opponent winning percentage, that would give SMU the second spot behind Virginia in the championship game, assuming chalk holds throughout the rest of the conference (SMU would still be in, but it could change their opponent).
If SMU were to lose, they wouldn't be officially eliminated, but they would need to essentially thread the needle with the help that they would need. Pitt losing to Miami and Duke losing to Wake Forest are the two results that the Mustangs would unfailingly need with a loss, but they would also have to move down deep into the ACC tiebreakers to SportSource Analytics rankings to decide their spot, which would be a wild turn of events.
How Miami can make the ACC Championship Game
Scenarios for the Miami Hurricanes
- First need to win, then Miami needs...
- Virginia loss + Duke loss + SMU win, OR
- SMU loss + Duke loss + Virginia loss + NC State win, OR
- SMU loss + Duke loss + Virginia loss + UNC win + Syracuse win, OR
- SMU loss + Duke loss + Virginia loss + UNC win + Boston College win + Higher SportSource Analytics ranking than Georgia Tech and SMU, OR
- SMU loss + Duke loss + Virginia win + NC State win + Syracuse win, OR
- SMU loss + Duke loss + Virginia win + NC State win + Boston College win + Higher SportSource Analytics ranking than Georgia Tech and SMU, OR
- SMU loss + Duke win + Virginia loss + NC State win, OR
- SMU win + Duke win + Virginia loss + NC State win + Higher SportSource Analytics ranking than Duke
Super simple, right?
First and foremost, Miami has to win at Pitt in Week 14 in order to have a chance to make the ACC Championship Game. If they lose to their Panthers, than their chances are shot. However, they would need a lot of help in order for the Hurricanes to find their way to Charlotte. Some combination of two of SMU, Duke and Virginia losing is crucial to their chances after they would effectively give themselves a tiebreaker over Pitt with a win.
However, things could again get complicated, much like with SMU, in terms of how far the tiebreaker list could go down to see if Miami gets in with the SportSource Analytics rankings again potentially coming into play. The easiest path, though, is for Virginia and Duke to lose and SMU to win. That would make things the easiest on the Hurricanes.
How Georgia Tech can make the ACC Championship Game
Scenarios for the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
- Pitt win + Virginia loss + SMU loss, OR
- Miami win + SMU loss + Duke loss + Virginia loss + NC State win, OR
- Miami win + SMU loss + Duke loss + Virginia loss + UNC win + Boston College win + Higher SportSource Analytics ranking than Miami and SMU, OR
- Miami win + SMU loss + Duke loss + Virginia win + NC State win + Boston College win + Higher SportSource Analytics ranking than Miami and SMU
Georgia Tech finished up ACC play last week with the loss to Pitt and that put the Yellow Jackets in a bind. They need nothing but help to get into the conference championship game as they're already set with a 6-2 record in the league, but it's not impossible. It starts with the path of least resistance, which would be a Pitt win over Miami while Virginia and SMU lose their games in Week 14.
While SportSource Analytics could come into play for the Yellow Jackets, too, the big thing that Georgia Tech needs is absolute chaos. As a two-loss team, they need to end the regular season with as many two-loss teams in the ACC as possible, which creates more tiebreakers to consider beyond just head-to-head. That's how Brent Key's team gets its chance, beyond the path of least resistance already mentioned — though that involves a bevy of two-loss teams in its own right.
How Duke can make the ACC Championship Game
Scenarios for the Duke Blue Devils
- Win and then need...
- Pitt loss + SMU loss, OR
- Pitt loss + SMU loss + Virginia loss, OR
- Pitt loss + Virginia loss + UNC win, OR
- Pitt loss + Virginia loss + NC State win + Higher SportSource Analytics ranking than Miami
Despite having by far the worst overall record of any of the ACC's contenders that are still alive for the conference championship game, Duke is still alive. Much like Miami in Week 14, beating Wake Forest is the first order of business for the Blue Devils. Without that, Manny Diaz's team has no chance of making it to Charlotte. If they can get that win, though, the door actually opens up quite nicely for them.
While the independent SportSource Analytics rankings could come into play, it actually could be much simpler than that for Duke. They undoubtedly need Pitt to lose to Miami if they're going to make it into the league's title bout, but they also need some combination of SMU and Virginia to lose on Saturday as well, in addition to getting a bit more help.