Every college football Saturday delivers upsets, both predictable and utterly shocking. Last week, we got NC State over Georgia Tech. For a few weeks there, Penn State was handing out upsets like Oprah Winfrey giving out cars; UCLA and Northwestern were both greater than 20-point underdogs. We're not likely to see any upsets of that size this week, but you never know. Could Purdue (+30.5) perform a miracle against Ohio State? Would Miami falter again, this time against Syracuse (+28.5)?
If any of the three-touchdown favorites are in particular danger, it might be Notre Dame. The No. 10 Fighting Irish are 24.5-point favorites against 7-1 Navy. The Midshipmen haven't played anyone of note yet and they're heading to South Bend for this one. I'm not crazy enough to predict an upset or even put ND on upset alert. I'm just pointing out that most one-loss teams don't find themselves that disrespected at this stage in the year. Notre Dame has to be feeling good after a strong placement in the first CFP rankings. They need to be wary of overconfidence.
So if not the Irish, who is on upset alert?
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 22 Missouri
Texas A&M is undefeated with multiple impressive road wins over Notre Dame and LSU. So a road trip to Columbia shouldn't be a problem, right? Not so fast. The toughest elements of a schedule aren't always the teams you face, but when you face them. The Aggies are on the third leg of a brutal stretch of road games against Arkansas, LSU and Missouri. A welcome bye week gave them a bit of rest before this Saturday's matchup at least. Still, it's tough to play on the road, especially when you haven't played in friendly confines in the span of a month.
It's even more difficult when you're facing off with a legitimately tricky SEC opponent. The Tigers have lost two games to ranked conference foes by a combined 10 points. Games against Alabama and Vanderbilt were both decided in the fourth quarter, and the latter was with starting quarterback Beau Pribula going down with a dislocated ankle in the third quarter. Backup Matt Zollers threw a touchdown and completed a Hail Mary that was millimeters short of tying the game as time expired.
Zollers will take the reins again on Saturday with Pribula ruled out. He looked plenty capable of running the offense and can't be taken lightly. Kevin Coleman Jr., the receiver who came tantalizingly close to creating an epic ending to the Vanderbilt game, will certainly make Zollers' life easier with his dynamic playmaking ability.
The Aggies have squeaked out close wins over lesser SEC opponents this season. Missouri is a better team than Auburn or Arkansas. And they're far more stable than Brian Kelly's reeling LSU. This will be A&M's toughest test since they beat Notre Dame in South Bend.
No. 4 Alabama vs. LSU
Speaking of Brian Kelly ... LSU is the scariest unranked opponent anyone could face this weekend. They're a wounded animal that has just been let loose from their cage. It's exceedingly clear Kelly was a bad fit in Baton Rouge. And if the distaste his former players have expressed for him was shared in the LSU locker room is any indication, it's entirely possible we're about to see some newly motivated Tigers under interim head coach Frank Wilson.
There's one important thing to remember: This is a talented LSU team that was more than capable of giving Alabama a game even before all this. Kelly was fired because of his perceived underachievement, not because the Tigers were lacking in personnel. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and linebacker Whit Weeks were preseason first-team All-SEC. Four others were on the second team.
LSU's offense has been particularly uninspiring this year considering the QB and weapons available to him. So the fact that Kelly's ouster included offensive coordinator Joe Sloan could shake things up for the better. Alex Atkins, formerly the tight ends coach, is now the interim OC and playcaller. The bad news? Atkins was the OC for Florida State in 2024 when their scoring offense ranked 131st out of 134 teams in college football. (Seriously, averaging just 15.4 points per game was a feat.) The good news is Atkins also ran the FSU offense the previous two seasons when they averaged 34.6 and 36.1 points per game. He's had a bye week to reset the offense.
If this game was being played in Death Valley, I'd be calling this an upset lock. Since it's in Tuscaloosa, it's actually hard to pick the Tigers to pull this off. Even so, Alabama certainly hasn't been impervious this season. They've rallied since their upset loss to Florida State in the season opener, but they've won three of their last five games by one score. An upset scare against South Carolina last week required scoring 15 points in the final two-and-a-half minutes to win.
No. 9 Oregon at No. 20 Iowa
Oregon heads to the unfriendly confines of Kinnick Stadium to take on newly ranked Iowa. Anxiety is in the air for good reason. The Hawkeyes are 6-2 with their only two losses coming to Iowa State and Indiana by a combined eight points.
Iowa's fifth-ranked FPI defense will be the highest-rated unit Oregon has faced since Indiana. The Hoosiers shut down Dante Moore and the Duck offense, limiting them to 13 points. The rising quarterback threw two interceptions for the first time this season, managing just 186 yards through the air. His passer rating of 105.68 was his lowest of the campaign. Meanwhile, Oregon couldn't get their run game going, limited to 81 yards.
Indiana wasn't the only team to give Oregon's offense trouble. Wisconsin didn't let the Ducks score their first touchdown until there was a minute left in the first half. Weather may have played a significant role in the slow start, but it was slow nonetheless. Moore exiting with an injury in the third quarter ensured scoring would be limited in the otherwise comfortable 21-7 victory.
After a bye week, Moore should be good to go for Oregon against Iowa. He'll have to contend with an even more stout defense and the threat of inclement weather. The forecast calls for 45 degree temperatures and an 89 percent chance of showers.
Iowa's offense definitely doesn't have the firepower to contend with Oregon's highly-rated defense. But the Hawkeyes boast one of the best return units in the country. Kaden Wetjan has two punt return touchdowns and another score via a kickoff return. Defensive back Zach Lutmer has returned an interception for a touchdown as well. Alternative scoring has been the crux of many a big upset. The Ducks should watch out.