There are still six weeks until the first round of the College Football Playoff gets underway, but we finally got our first look at what the 12-team CFP field could look like on Tuesday night with the first reveal from the selection committee of the Top 25 CFB Playoff rankings. There were some major surprises, most notably with no Group of Five team being ranked, Ohio State holding onto No. 1 over Indiana and Texas A&M, and even the bottom of the Big Ten getting less love than expected. But more importantly, the first rankings reveal more about the path for teams than we previously knew, for better or worse.
It was no surprise to see the top four from the AP Top 25 in the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings, as well. Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M and Alabama have all earned their keep so far this season. And until proven otherwise, those are the spots they should be in. The thing is, though, we're going to have to fill out a 12-team field in just over a month's time, and that's where things get more interesting.
So let's first look at the Top 25 CFP rankings, but then unpack who these first rankings from the selection committee benefit and, of course, don't benefit for what it could mean for the final month of the season.
Week 11 College Football Playoff rankings
- Ohio State Buckeyes
- Indiana Hoosiers
- Texas A&M Aggies
- Alabama Crimson Tide
- Georgia Bulldogs
- Ole Miss Rebels
- BYU Cougars
- Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Oregon Ducks
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Texas Longhorns
- Oklahoma Sooners
- Utah Utes
- Virginia Cavaliers
- Louisville Cardinals
- Vanderbilt Commodores
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
- Miami Hurricanes
- USC Trojans
- Iowa Hawkeyes
- Michigan Wolverines
- Missouri Tigers
- Washington Huskies
- Pittsburgh Panthers
- Tennessee Volunteers
Winners and losers from the first College Football Playoff rankings
Winner: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
I've been out ahead of this for a few weeks now, and this all but confirmed it. When Notre Dame lost its first two games of the season to Miami and Texas A&M, it seemed like everyone immediately wrote off the Fighting Irish as a potential College Football Playoff team. However, they've been steadily climbing the rankings, while playing better football too, and are now the No. 10 team in the initial CFP rankings. And that's even more advantageous for this particular team with their schedule.
The Irish finish the season at home against Navy, at Pittsburgh, vs. Syracuse and at Stanford. Navy and Pitt are nothing to scoff at, but Notre Dame is also clearly the superior team in both of those matchups. And with already being inside the Top 10 and not having to worry about a potential loss in a conference championship game, the path is perhaps clearer for the Irish than any other playoff contender in the country this season.
Loser: Oregon Ducks
While AP voters have kept Oregon comfortably inside the Top 10, even after the loss to Indiana and with their signature wins looking less impressive by the week, the selection committee was not as kind to the Ducks.
And in fairness, that's probably the way it should be. The Ducks held their own against Indiana, but lost at home. After that, their best win is no longer Penn State, a team that's since bottomed out after Oregon outlasted them in overtime on the road, and is likely on the road against middling Northwestern.
Oregon simply doesn't have a signature win. But they also have plenty of chances up ahead in the final month to prove their moxie and, more pressingly, their College Football Playoff viability. Three of their remaining four games are on against teams ranked in the CFP Top 25 with matchups at Iowa, vs. USC and at Washington.
Winner: Utah Utes (and the rest of the Big 12)
Not only does the Big 12 have two teams, both Texas Tech and BYU, inside the Top 10 of the first CFP rankings, but they have a team that lost to both the Red Raiders and Cougars in Utah that is still lurking inside the Top 15 as well. That gives them three teams ranked ahead of the highest-ranked ACC team, and could set up a reasonable path for Utah to get an at-large bid depending on what happens in the Big Ten and SEC here on out, but also for the conference to get two bids as well.
Coming into the season, it was hard to identify the pecking order for the Big 12, but that's since changed as the year has gone along. Utah has looked dominant at times, while BYU remains unbeaten ahead of its showdown with one-loss Texas Tech. What that all means, though, is that these teams are all more alive than we perhaps ever expected them to be coming into the season.
And yes, that also means that the ACC as a whole is probably a big loser, as it's not certain, but it looks like the conference will only be a one-bid league.
Loser: Oklahoma Sooners
Instead of diving into the ACC, though, Oklahoma looks like it might be in an impossible position when it comes to the College Football Playoff. With the highest-ranked conference champions meaning that Virginia and Memphis take the 11th and 12th spots in the field, that pushes the Sooners to be the second team out of the bracket. But what's worse is that, unlike in the AP Top 25, the selection committee is recognizing the head-to-head result in Red River against Texas.
Granted, that doesn't mean that will stay that way. Just as Oklahoma has a tough finishing stretch (even if slightly more manageable thanks to attrition), Texas has a bear of a slate ahead with matchups against Georgia and Texas A&M still on the docket, two top-five teams. However, even if both teams were to win out, that would essentially look to be one team that the Sooners simply can't jump ahead of, which could leave them boxed out when the final rankings come out.
Loser: Texas A&M Aggies
Looking at another SEC team, the fact that Texas A&M is sitting in third, the same spot as the AP Top 25, is a bit crazy. The Aggies' wins aren't all that impressive outside of the one-point road win over Notre Dame, especially with the demises of Florida and LSU. At the same time, though, outside of an inexplicable shootout against Arkansas, the Aggies have been arguably the most impressive team in the country aside from Indiana.
A&M and Indiana both, frankly, have a better body of work than Ohio State to this point, especially with what Texas looked like for the first month-plus of the season. But for the Aggies to come in behind both Big Ten teams, that seemingly would mean that, no matter what they do for the rest of the season — though they do face Texas in Austin — they might be sitting behind the two Big Ten favorites.
Winner: USC Trojans
We finish with one more look at the Big Ten, which is where USC comes in as a sneaky big winner. Yes, being 19th in the first College Football Playoff rankings doesn't change a whole helluva lot. At the same time, though, they come in one spot ahead of Iowa and two spots ahead of Michigan this season in the grouping of the conference's bids to be the possible fourth Big Ten team to make it into the playoff field.
Not only does that work in USC's favor as they're already ahead of the pack, but looming matchups against Iowa and Oregon — at home and on the road, respectively — give them opportunities to continue rising back up the rankings as well. I would've had the Trojans at the top of that group as well, and to see the CFB committee agree with that is a big win for Lincoln Riley's team in the opportunity that now presents itself.