They say that bowl games don't matter anymore. But good luck telling that to a Clemson fan who just watched their team slog through a miserable 22-10 loss to Penn State in the Pinstripe Bowl on Saturday afternoon. It's a fittingly depressing capper on a 7-6 season for the Tigers that marks the nadir of the Dabo Swinney era thus far — and figures to crank the heat even higher under Swinney's already toasty seat.
Swinney brought Clemson to national prominence, but the results have been increasingly dire of late. And in this what-have-you-done-for-me-lately sport, that's more than enough to start asking for somebody's job. The only problem? Moving on is going to be very expensive.
What is Dabo Swinney’s buyout at Clemson?
Clemson signed Swinney to a 10-year extension worth $115 million at the start of the 2022 season. At the time, it seemed perfectly sensible: Swinney was four years removed from his most recent national title, three years removed from his most recent title game appearance and about to capture his seventh ACC title in eight seasons. He seemed, from all available evidence, to be on top of the sport.
Now, though, the bill is coming due. Because of that extension, Swinney's buyout sits at $57 million if they choose to fire him at any point in 2026. From 2027 on, the buyout is the full remaining salary left on the deal, starting at around $55 million. It can be paid out in regular installments through 2031 or paid in full within 90 days of Swinney being terminated, with no offset language if Swinney gets a new job (which he's quite publicly said said he would).
What would it take for Clemson to fire Dabo Swinney?
Which is, to state the obvious, a whole heck of a lot of money, on top of the salary that Clemson would have to pay to whoever they chose to replace Swinney. No program would be excited by the prospect of writing a $60-70 million check, and the Tigers have never been among the richest in the sport.
Then again, Swinney's past success has raised the expectations of administrators, boosters and fans. And if there's anything that the past few months around college football have taught us, it's that there's no amount of money a desperate school won't find a way to pay. This latest ugly loss just furthers the impression that Swinney is no longer the man to keep Clemson at or near the top of the sport: He's now lost at least four games in each of the last three years, and his retrograde stance on the transfer portal and NIL sure seem to be putting his program behind the 8-ball.
At a certain point, the Tigers will have no choice but to say that enough is enough no matter the cost. Swinney's price tag will buy him at least one or two more years to engineer a turnaround, but if he can't pull it off, it's time for Clemson to start looking elsewhere.
Dabo Swinney replacements that Clemson should have their eye on
Kentucky HC Will Stein
Stein just took the job at Kentucky a few weeks ago, but let's be real: That's one of the most difficult jobs in the Power Four, a basketball school that's fighting an uphill battle just to stay afloat in the SEC. Stein is a Louisville native, but the pull of his home state can only keep him in Lexington for so long. If the offensive chops he showcased as the play-caller at Oregon transfer to Kentucky, expect bigger jobs to come calling sooner rather than later. And after suffering through more than one failed Swinney OC hire — just search "Garrett Riley" on any Clemson forum, you're in for a treat — Tigers fans would love the idea of an offensive innovator at the controls.
Florida OC Buster Faulkner
Speaking of which! Faulkner spent the last couple of years turning Haynes King into a Heisman candidate at Georgia Tech, parlaying that success into the OC gig at Florida under Jon Sumrall's new staff. He also had a three-year stint under Kirby Smart at Georgia, so he knows a thing or two about program-building.
He also knows how to recruit the South, as a Georgia native who's spent his entire coaching career in the footprint. Combine that expertise with his schematic ability, and you've got an enticing candidate who could shoot up hot boards if he hits the ground running in Gainesville.
Indiana DC Bryant Haines
Curt Cignetti deserves all the flowers he's getting for the turnaround he's engineered at Indiana, but it's time to start showing Haines some love as well. After all, he's been there at Coach Cig's side for years, from IUP to Elon to James Madison to IU. And wherever he's gone, elite defenses have followed: Haines built an awesome unit at JMU, then took the best of those players and turned it into one of the best defenses in the country at Indiana.
That's no small feat, and he's presumably picked up some pointers from Cignetti on how best to build and run a program that can punch above its historic weight. There are some concerns here, of course; he's never had a head job, and he's spent almost all of his coaching career in the Midwest. But he did spend a few years in Virginia at JMU, and his defensive results and ability to identify and develop talent speak for themselves.
Virginia Tech HC James Franklin
Stop laughing! Franklin eventually flamed out at Penn State, but that shouldn't overshadow the good work he did in rebuilding the Nittany Lions post-Joe Paterno — not to mention the exceptional work he did at Vanderbilt before that. There's every reason to think he can do the same at Virginia Tech, and if he does, he'll be right back at the top of everyone's lists in a couple years' time; he's still just 53, after all.
Assuming he finds success in Blacksburg, why wouldn't Clemson be interested! He has plenty of experience recruiting states like Virginia and Tennessee that are squarely in the Tigers' footprint, and he's won a ton of games literally everywhere he's been over the course of his career. Plus, his track record making assistant hires is a whole lot better than Swinney's.