Every Top 50 NFL Draft prospect’s high school recruiting ranking

The NFL Draft is the biggest day of each prospect's life, at least to this point. The biggest day of their life just a few years ago was National Signing Day, when they officially made the leap from high school to college football. Just like we ranked the top 50 prospects on the FanSided Big Board, all these players were once ranked by recruiting services, translating potential into numbers.

Some highly rated draft prospects, like Caleb Downs, are just fulfilling the promise of their high school recruiting ranking. Others, like Fernando Mendoza, are blowing those rankings out of the water by featuring among the best of the best heading for the next level. Below, we've got the high school recruiting star rating and raw score for every top 50 prospect.

1. NFL Draft Big Board recruiting rankings by the numbers
2. Recruiting rankings by position
3. Recruiting rankings for each top 50 NFL Draft prospect

NFL Draft Big Board recruiting rankings by the numbers

• 5-stars: 7 players (14%)
• 4-stars: 22 players (44%)
• 3-stars: 18 players (36%)
• 2-stars/unranked: 3 players (6%)

The majority of players on FanSided's Big Board were four-star or three-star recruits with only seven earning five-star status coming out of high school. This clearly tells us something: Stars do matter.

More than 50 percent of players in the top 50 were blue-chip recruits. While the presence of so many three-stars could make you think three-stars have just as good a chance to become an elite NFL Draft prospect, that's not the case. There are more than 2,000 three-stars in the 247Composite each year. There are around 400 four-stars and only 40 or so five-stars. Blue-chippers account for a fraction of the total population of high school recruits, yet they still make up half of the elite NFL prospects in this class.

Average recruiting rating

• Average recruiting rating: 0.9157
• Average star rating: 4-star

The 247Composite doesn't just reflect a star rating. With recruiting ratings, we can see the difference between a four-star who just missed out on being a five-star and one who was on the verge of being a three-star.

Five-stars are players with ratings between 0.9800 and 1.000. Four-stars rate between .9000 and 0.9700. Three-stars range from 0.8000 to 0.8900.

So the average rating for this batch of draft prospects is a low four-star. That tracks with the 50-50 split between blue-chippers and three-stars settling that average right in the middle.

The transfer factor: Who moves and who doesn't?

• Homegrown average: 0.9382
• Transfer average: 0.8782

There's a clear difference between the average recruiting rating of transfers and non-transfers. The former are more often in the three-star range. Many of them — like Cashius Howell and Dillon Thieneman — made a name for themselves at a less prestigious program and then transferred up. They might have become first- or second-round prospects anyways — like Toledo's Emmanuel McNeil-Warren — but you never know.

It's also worth noting that the transfer average is skewed up by Caleb Downs, the five-star safety who made a lateral move from Alabama to Ohio State after Nick Saban's retirement. The next 10 highest-rated recruits were all non-transfers.

Non-transfers tend to be four-stars or better. Elite talent that's identified in high school and succeeds in college tends to stay put. That was the case for Francis Mauigoa, Sonny Styles and Ty Simpson. Jeremiah Smith is likely to join them in that category.

Recruiting outliers: Highest- and lowest-rated top 50 NFL Draft prospects

Highest-rated prospects

1. Caleb Downs (Safety, Ohio State): 0.9971
2. Francis Mauigoa (Offensive Tackle, Miami): 0.9960
3. Kadyn Proctor (Offensive Tackle, Alabama): 0.9960
4. Sonny Styles (Linebacker, Ohio State): 0.9937
5. Ty Simpson (Quarterback, Alabama): 0.9883

Why do highly rated prospects stick around? It might be because they tend to end up with the most dominant programs to begin with. That's evidenced by Ohio State and Alabama having two of the top recruiting prospects in this drft class. The Crimson Tide very nearly had three.

Lowest-rated prospects

1. Fernando Mendoza (Quarterback, Indiana): 0.7933
2. Cashius Howell (Edge, Texas A&M): 0.8141
3. D'Angelo Ponds (Cornerback, Indiana): 0.8256
4. Zion Young (Edge, Missouri): 0.8456
5. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (Safety, Toledo): 0.8467

Stars matter because they contribute to the probability that a player will reach the NFL. But they aren't what determines whether a player gets there. Two- and three-star players find a way. Hell, even unrated players break through. Arizona's Treydan Stukes and Oregon's Emmanuel Pregnon were not rated coming out of high school. They proved the evaluators wrong.

Recruiting rankings by position

There are 10 offensive linemen on the Big Board; half of them were top 50 prospects coming out of high school. Only two were three-stars, and one was not rated (Pregnon). Basically, the offensive linemen who will hear their names in the first two rounds were identified as top-level prospects from the get-go. Development is still a key factor in producing top-tier OL draft hopefuls — and a reason players like Kadyn Proctor are still considered projects — but these guys already possessed rare size and athletic gifts that can't be taught.

It's the complete opposite for cornerbacks. Of the eight in FanSided's top 50, Keionte Scott was the highest-rated in the group — and he only got his four-star rating as a JUCO prospect. He was unrated coming out of high school. The rest were three-stars or worse. So if you want to put your faith in potential diamond-in-the-rough prospects, look at CBs.

Recruiting rankings for each top 50 NFL Draft prospect

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