Mario Cristobal played in a national championship with Miami before Dan Lanning did at Oregon. Usually that wouldn’t be anything to applaud, but when you look at how good Oregon’s been since Lanning has been in Eugene, it’s nearly impossible to comprehend how the Ducks have failed to play for a national championship.
Last season the Ducks were the No. 1 overall team in the playoff field; Ohio State won the game before halftime. This season they were the No. 5 seed and outscored their first two opponents 74-34, including a shutout win, only to get whooped by Indiana in the semifinals.
The last two losses Oregon’s had in the College Football Playoff have been to the eventual national champion as well with Indiana’s historic, first national championship. Why is it that Oregon struggles in the big game`? Maybe it’s less about who the coach is and the job itself.
The Oregon job could very well be cursed, which is why Lanning could learn a lesson from Cristobal. Cristobal had to leave Eugene to get to the national championship. Lanning might be forced to do the same if he wants to be a national champion.
Why is it so hard to compete for national championships at Oregon
It’s a lazy argument to say that Oregon deserves a pass because they lost to the last two national champions in the College Football Playoff. No other team gets that kind of pass, especially a team that is supposed to be competing for national championships. Can’t be the best team if you can’t beat them.
In their first year in the Big Ten, they ran the gamut, entering the College Football Playoff a year ago. Only to get blown out in the quarterfinals. Before then, the Ducks’ last CFP appearance, they lost to Ohio State in the national title game. That was three coaches ago. While Mark Helfrich wasn’t much successful after he left Eugene, Cristobal has at least made it to the title game and almost won.
Can Lanning be the coach to get over the hump at Oregon?
It’s not looking likely for Lanning to play for or even win a national championship at Oregon the way things are going. This isn’t about roster construction with the Ducks routinely atop the recruiting rankings. This isn’t about coaching with the coaching tree Lanning alone and produced with Kenny Dillingham and now Will Stein.
Are the Ducks cursed?
Next year will truly determine if Lanning can win a national championship at Oregon or not. He has the team with Dante Moore coming back, Dakorian Moore, Noah Whittingham and even Evan Stewart. The defense is young and while losing a couple key secondary players, returns Bear Alexander on the defensive front.
This roster is championship built and there’s no reason it should be getting blown out in the College Football Playoff, seemingly every time they make it. Good teams don’t do that. Maybe the ceiling for Oregon is simply CFP contenders but not championship contenders.
Oregon is a stepping stone job, not a long term one
History would show that getting the Oregon job isn’t as glamorous as you’d think. If it was, maybe the Ducks would be more successful than they have. They’ve had a lot of coaching turnover for good reason with coaches getting promotions, but the head coaches are just as likely to leave. That’s because, like Cristobal, they realized they’ve reached their peak.
If you look at former coaches Chip Kelly, Mark Helfrich and Mario Cristobal, each left Oregon and for the most part had more success. Helfrich reached a national title then departed the Ducks for the NFL, though he fizzled out. Kelly’s only national title came after he joined Ohio State’s staff in 2024, though that came after failed NFL stints and leaving UCLA for the Buckeyes.
Cristobal left Oregon in 2021 and he had more success this past season than he ever accomplished.
That’s the lesson Lanning is going to learn from Cristobal. He’ll have to leave Oregon to finally win the national title that’s eluded him. Even moreso, he might have to go back home (Alabama) just like Cristobal did.