Notre Dame CFP scenarios, seed, matchup: Why the Irish win any committee debate

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are at the center of the biggest College Football Playoff debate of the season. When separating Notre Dame, Alabama and Miami, what matters more: Making it to a conference title game, head-to-head results or passing the analytics and eye test? That's the question the CFP selection committee has to untangle before they reveal the final rankings and 12-team bracket on Sunday.

Notre Dame's case was helped on Saturday as Georgia bullied Alabama off the field in the SEC title game. What had looked like a debate between just Notre Dame and Miami warped into a threesome as the Crimson Tide sunk further and further into the mud against the Bulldogs. All of the sudden, the conversation wasn't about why the Fighting Irish or Hurricanes should be in. It turned into a question of whether Alabama deserved to be in at all.

So, does Notre Dame deserve to be in? I think yes.

Why Notre Dame should be in the College Football Playoff

I believe in the value of head-to-head, but the further away that matchup gets, the less value it should have. Notre Dame lost to Miami at Hard Rock Stadium by a field goal scored with just over a minute left. They had a quarterback not just making his first road start, but his first start period.

Since then, they've grown as a team and continually passed the eye test, blowing out Arkansas on the road, besting Mountain West champ Boise State by 21, No. 16 USC by 10, Navy by 39 and then-ranked Pitt by 22. They've moved up the analytics rankings, landing second in Sagarin, third in FPI, fourth in FEI, fifth in Massey and SP+.

Notre Dame's only two losses of the season came 13 weeks ago. Miami's second came five weeks ago. A lot has changed since then and while the Hurricanes are certainly a good team, the Fighting Irish are a better team right now.

Regardless of what happens with Alabama, Notre Dame deserves to be ranked ahead of Miami because they best the Hurricanes in just about every category. Head-to-head is a factor, but it shouldn't be the only factor, not when half a dozen other factors are also in play.

Notre Dame's CFP scenarios

I've said my piece, but what will the committee do? That's the ultimate unknown. They can't explain their own logic coherently half the time anyways. Predicting what they'll decide is like throwing a dart while wearing a blindfold. Let's consider some scenarios.

Notre Dame is in if the selection committee is looking for the best overall teams

Here's the thing: Notre Dame isn't just better than Miami. They would be favored over Alabama and Oklahoma on a neutral field, according to ESPN BET. And it goes further than that. On a neutral field, they'd have a 65.9 percent win probability over Ole Miss, per CFB Graphs. It's 58.0 percent against Oregon. And 62.0 percent vs. Texas A&M. Hell, they'd be the narrow analytics pick to beat Texas Tech at 50.8 percent. Believe it or not, they'd also have the on-paper edge over Georgia at 60.5 percent.

It's pretty clear if the committee is committed to including the best teams in the country, Notre Dame should be among them.

Notre Dame is left out if the selection committee succumbs to head-to-head pressure

I've already addressed the head-to-head question, and I'd argue the CFP committee has already as well. Notre Dame has ranked ahead of Miami in every top 25 since Week 11. The committee has been telling us for weeks that they think Notre Dame should be ahead of Miami. Why change that now?

Well, like I said, the committee does what it wants on a whim. If they got served Miami Vices at the hotel bar before going in to deliberate, who knows, they might change their mind. More seriously, they've been getting a lot of heat over the head-to-head question for a while and you never know when they might be persuaded or cave.

Notre Dame is in if the selection committee is prepared to deal with the SEC's wrath

Yeah, it's the "Alabama is out in favor of Notre Dame and Miami" scenario. Basically, Alabama got beat so bad, the committee decides to hold the Crimson Tide accountable for their three-losses. If they got in, they'd be the first three-loss team to take a bid as a non-automatic qualifier. I see merit in the idea.

But we're talking about the SEC. Steve Sarkisian already wants to burn everything down because his Texas Longhorns aren't in contention because of their three losses despite significant strength of schedule. Add a snub for Alabama for the second year in a row and the SEC might go nuclear. That could mean doing away with their conference title game or all sorts of other extreme actions — like pushing even harder for a 16-team field.

Somehow, I doubt the committee has the cajones.

Notre Dame's potential playoff seeding and matchups

• (9) Notre Dame at (8) Oklahoma then (1) Indiana in quarterfinals
• (10) Notre Dame at (7) Texas A&M then (2) Georgia/Ohio State in quarterfinals

If Notre Dame does get in, it would either be as the No. 9 or 10 seed. If the CFP rankings hold more-or-less true, their matchup as the 9-seed would be against Oklahoma with No. 1 Indiana waiting in the next round.

If the committee keeps Alabama in place, the Irish would stick at No. 10 with a first round match up at 7-seed Texas A&M. One of Georgia or Ohio State would be their next opponent if they made it through.

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