The Alabama Crimson Tide had reason to worry about their College Football Playoff hopes on Saturday, but Texas Tech's win over BYU was supposed to ease any concerns. Even with a loss to Georgia in the SEC championship game, they'd be in...right? It turns out, a 28-7 loss to the Bulldogs has shaken everyone's confidence.
Georgia dominated the Tide, hampering QB Ty Simpson while completely shutting down Alabama's rushing attack. They had just 10 yards on the ground midway through the third quarter. Alabama was the underdog coming in, so a loss wasn't all that surprising. A no-show performance though? That wasn't supposed to be on the cards. And it could have severe consequences.
College Football Playoff odds*
*Via DraftKings as of 7:30 p.m. ET
- Notre Dame -1200
- Alabama -300
- James Madison +155
- Miami +140
- Duke +5000
Alabama's odds to make the CFP field plummeted as Georgia dominated them in the first half of the title game. Most oddsmakers were giving the Tide -1800 to -2000 at the start of the day. ESPN projected a 96.3 percent chance they'd be in. By the end of the third quarter, they were down to -350 and had conceded the best odds to get in to Notre Dame.
Odds aren't guarantees. Oddsmakers are just as blind as we are to what the CFP selection committee will do. The committee doesn't have a habit of using consistent logic to complete their rankings.
Alabama's CFP scenarios after losing the SEC title game
So how screwed is Alabama? There are eight teams — Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech, Oregon, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma — essentially locked into the 12-team bracket. Two most spots are reserved for conference champions; Tulane holds one, either Virginia or James Madison will take the other. That leaves two open bids for Alabama, Notre Dame, BYU, Miami and even Texas to fight over.
Alabama gets in if the committee chooses not to punish title game losses
The remainder of results on Saturday are meaningly. Slots are taken and the remaining debate has to do with teams that played in conference title games — like Alabama and BYU — and those that didn't — Notre Dame, Miami and Texas.
Alabama needs to hope the committee remembers how they've talked about not punishing teams who play in title games. If that's their philosophy, then Alabama will remain above Notre Dame, Miami and Texas at the very least. The Crimson Tide will remain in the field, becoming the first three-loss team to get in without an autobid for a conference title.
Alabama gets left out if the committee favors W-L records and resumes
Alabama's biggest problem will be their 10-3 record. The committee may not be interested in favoring conference title game participants if they got worked over in said game. The Crimson Tide (and BYU) may have forfeited their spots, not because they lost, but because of how they lost.
Resumes are also a problem for Alabama. Notre Dame is second in Sagarin, third in ESPN's FPI, fourth in FEI, fifth in SP+. All of the major opponent-adjusted analytics say the Fighting Irish out rank the SEC runner-ups. Meanwhile, BYU and Miami can both claim one fewer loss than Alabama, the Cougars' loss in the Big 12 title game included. BYU and Miami are close enough in the advanced stats to create some serious discussion.
Alabama gets in if strength of schedule comes into play
Kalen DeBoer can argue one key point to the committee: Alabama played a much harder schedule than BYU, Notre Dame and Miami. They ranked 11th in the regular season. BYU was 34th, Notre Dame was 42nd and Miami was 44th.
Alabama lost to Georgia in an extra game. They fell by just two points to Oklahoma, a playoff team. And if Notre Dame petitions for leniency over early season losses, the Crimson Tide would deserve that for a Week 1 road loss to Florida State with a first-year starter at quarterback. What kind of precedent would it sent to once again leave out a team that played a tough schedule while giving a pass to teams that didn't go through the gauntlet?
Alabama gets left out if the committee takes the easy way out on Notre Dame/Miami
The CFP selection committee often makes decisions that don't follow previous logic because they're driven by convenience. They feel a certain way about a team and twist their explanations to fit whatever narrative they need to justify themselves.
What could be more convenient than opting out of the Notre Dame vs. Miami debate? Here's the problem: Miami beat Notre Dame at the start of the season. They own the head-to-head advantage. But the Hurricanes suffered two much worse losses than the Irish, who have a better resume across the board. Marcus Freeman's team also passed the eye test with flying colors to end the season, hitting their stride late and dismantling everyone in their path. So Notre Dame is clearly a better team right now...but Miami beat them head-to-head.
Leaving Alabama out in favor of putting Notre Dame and Miami in the field would end the debate, allowing the committee to skip over choosing between resume and head-to-head. The Crimson Tide would have three losses after all. They got left out last year for three losses as well.
Fair or not, the committee will have an explanation for whatever way they go. And it'll surely be unsatisfying for the teams that aren't in.