Can BYU make the CFP with a loss in Big 12 championship? Seed projection and bowl game

BYU tried their hardest, but it wasn't enough.
2025 Edward Jones Big 12 Championship - BYU v Texas Tech
2025 Edward Jones Big 12 Championship - BYU v Texas Tech | John E. Moore III/GettyImages

BYU got blitzed in its first attempt at beating the Texas Tech Red Raiders, otherwise known as the transfer portal warriors, earlier this season. In the Big 12 Championship Game, they got a chance at redemption. It did not go according to plan.

There were many, many programs watching the Big 12 title game intently. If BYU won, it would've knocked several teams out of the College Football Playoff conversation. A loss provided programs like Miami and Notre Dame an argument, since the Red Raiders were expected to make the field either way. But what does this mean for the Cougars postseason?

BYU's college football playoff hopes are dead

The Big 12's only hopes of getting two teams into the 12-team playoff field was if BYU won on Saturday. Texas Tech was all but guaranteed to receive a bid, as they were ranked fourth heading into the weekend. BYU was ranked 11th, and they played like it. The Red Raiders easily handled the Cougars, and Tech should get a home CFP game as a result.

With BYU falling out of the field entirely, the likes of Miami, Notre Dame and Alabama can take a sigh of relief.

Alabama still has to take care of business against Georgia in Atlanta, but even if they lose a third game, it'd be tough to eliminate the Tide from the Playoff conversation. The teams all fighting with Alabama for that 12th spot – which is where they'd be placed with a loss to Georgia – have inferior resumes. Sure, it'd cause some controversy since this is, after all, Alabama, but the Crimson Tide's schedule was relentless.

Alabama's playoff resume benefit the most from BYU loss.

Key opponent

Win or Loss?

Score

at Georgia

Win

24-21

vs Vanderbilt

Win

30-14

vs Oklahoma

Loss

21-23

at Auburn

Win

27-20

Which bowl game will BYU play in if they miss the College Football Playoff?

Missing out on the College Football Playoff is a hard pill to swallow. BYU had just two losses on the season, but the Big 12 isn't a respect conference in the same vain as the SEC or Big Ten. Thus, the Cougars will miss out despite some impressive performances along the way. Head coach Kalani Sitake turned down the Penn State head coaching job in part because of this team's performance. There's a good chance whatever BYU is doing is sustainable.

The Alamo Bowl could court BYU should they miss out on the playoff picture. Southern Cal is expected to accept an invite to San Antonio. The Trojans finished the season fourth in the Big Ten at 9-3 overall.

USC vis BYU predictions

Braulio Perez, FanSided network expert

"After a brutal performance in the Big 12 title game, the Cougars have to settle for the Alamo Bowl against USC. The hangover from the CFP dreams being ruined by Texas Tech is going to last longer than BYU would hope, with it impacting the Cougs in a loss to the Trojans in this one. Good vibes are coming for Lincoln Riley after he signed the nation's No. 1 recruiting class for 2026."

USC 24, BYU 17

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