Power ranking the CFP's new middle class: Why 10-2 might not be good enough

The College Football Playoff field will be decided in less than a week but the Selection Committee has already given us fans an indication as to who it's favoring on the all-important bubble.

Those spots, typically Nos. 11-14, designate the squads sitting just outside the 12-team field (two conference champions are ranked lower than 14 and will claim auto-bids). If you're sitting there after Week 14, you have an outside yet still significant shot at making the bracket.

After Tuesday's rankings release, those teams include No. 11 BYU, No. 12 Miami, No. 13 Texas and No. 14 Vanderbilt. Three of those teams have just two losses (Texas has three) and are at an advantage to be considered for the final at-large bid. But there are plenty of others with the same record that hoped for a slim chance at breaking in.

Ranking every two-loss team with a shot at making the CFP

8. Utah

The Utes came in at No. 15 in the committee's rankings. But seeing as they finished third in the Big 12 regular season standings and that league would be pushing it with two bids to begin with, there's no way they'll get in even with the most chaotic scenario.

Ironically, both of Utah's losses came to the squads facing off in the Big 12 Championship. Those are two of the best losses you could have in college football. Unfortunately, the boys in Salt Lake City will have to settle for the consolation prize of being a Top 15 team entering bowl season.

7. Miami

The No. 12 Hurricanes are the highest-ranked team out of the ACC yet will not be competing for the conference title nor will they likely be in the playoff field. Before anyone tries to chime in with a "but they still could..." No. No they cannot. The committee would've swapped them with BYU if there was any chance they could still get in.

The Week 1 win over Notre Dame has lost its luster, especially after dropping two games to unranked foes. Even if Miami is playing good football, the damage was done in its conference standings and the fact that its league will be represented by a lower-quality program.

6. Tulane

Likely to be the Group of Five representative in the CFP if it defeats No. 24 North Texas in the American Athletic title game, Tulane has an impressive enough body of work. Its first loss was to Ole Miss (pretty good) but its stumble to UTSA is a blemish that could force the committee to consider whether projected Sun Belt champ, No. 25 James Madison (11-1), is more deserving.

5. Virginia

The No. 17 Cavaliers are just one win away from clinching an auto-bid to the playoff but the fact that they are not the highest-ranked team in the ACC is telling. Losses to NC State and Wake Forest are hard to ignore and would easily keep Virginia out of the playoff if Miami was its opponent in the conference title game.

That being said, beating a top-10 Florida State team (even if they were later proven frauds) put them on the national radar in the middle of the year. They didn't let go of that notoriety and have shown they can earn a conference title just like Arizona State and Clemson did last year and make a run at the big boys.

4. Vanderbilt

The Commodores are the final team on the bubble at No. 14. They own four ranked wins (impressive) yet sit behind No. 13 Texas based on head-to-head and the fact that the Longhorns just upset then-No. 3 Texas A&M in Week 14.

That being said, Vanderbilt still has a solid case to be the final team in the bracket if No. 9 Alabama loses to No. 3 Georgia in the SEC title game. Again, they don't have the head-to-head advantage but two losses is less than three, period. The numbers don't lie.

3. Alabama

Speaking of the Crimson Tide, they are one loss away from potentially being left out entirely. It's unlikely to happen but there's a conversation that needs to be had about yet another three-loss Alabama team being admitted again.

Winning the SEC and claiming an auto-bid is one thing, but how can you say a team is passing the eye test if it lost the last meaningful game it played (23-21 to Oklahoma) and then rebounded against two cupcake opponents (Eastern Illinois and Auburn)? Having Alabama jump Notre Dame in the rankings tells me the committee is going to let the Tide in no matter what.

2. Oklahoma

The Sooners have the head-to-head over Alabama which is why they are one spot ahead of the Tide. They won't be playing for the SEC title like Alabama will but there doesn't appear to be a scenario in which Oklahoma is left out of the playoff.

Four ranked wins is impressive for a team most thought would be transitioning toward winning football, not playing it consistently. Its only losses are to Texas and Ole Miss which, really, just boost the resume if we're being honest. Brent Venables and quarterback John Mateer are going to take the playoff by storm.

1. Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish are the most complete two-loss team on this list. It doesn't matter if their schedule wasn't as challenging as the SEC teams. Running back Jeremiyah Love is worthy of the Heisman Trophy and head coach Marcus Freeman has the team playing its best football to date.

It was astounding to see Notre Dame jumped by Alabama in the rankings. Having it drop a spot to No. 10 makes me think the committee is looking for an excuse to leave the Irish out with Miami to avoid the corner it painted itself into. That would be irresponsible and is unlikely to happen but still. The most deserving two-loss team is Notre Dame and it should get a shot at returning to the national title game.