The 2026 college football offseason is a time for programs to regroup and evaluate what kind of talent they've got to compete with. For some coaches, it could be a nervewracking process if the transfer portal scramble didn't yield fruitful gains.
We jsut saw Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti take a squad devoid of five-star recruits to the top of the sport, completing the first 16-0 season since 1894 in the process. That's only increased the pressure on coaches on the hot seat entering 2026. Let's take a look at a handful whose fates may already be written.
Mike Norvell, Florida State
The Seminoles made an improvement on 2024's disaster but, let's be honest, it should be easy for a program like Florida State to win more than two games. Finishing 5-7 in 2025 was still a rough campaign considering the Seminoles kicked off the year with a massive win over No. 8 Alabama and went 3-0.
Norvell will have to make do with unproven quarterback talent too. Auburn transfer Ashton Daniels only managed 767 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions last year before landing in Tallahassee.
Florida State starts the 2026 campaign with back-to-back contests against SMU and the Crimson Tide, bookended by buy games against New Mexico State and Central Arkansas. It's not inconceivable to think the Seminoles are 2-2 exiting that stretch. If the school doesn't decide at that point to cut its losses and move on, especially if the two losses are blow outs to SMU and Alabama or Norvell fails to win one of the buy games, it will definitely know by its bye week.
The next four games are looking like a gauntlet: Virginia, Louisville, Clemson and Miami. There's a very real chance Florida State is 2-6 after that and athletic director Michael Alford will have no choice but to fire Norvell.
Mike Locksley, Maryland
The Terrapins are entering year eight with Locksley at the helm in College Park. He's gone two consecutive seasons managing just four wins after three consecutive years with encouraging results. Freshman quarterback Malik Washington put up a healthy 2,963 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2025 but his nine interceptions need to at least be halved if more victories are in the team's future.
Similar to Norvell, Locksley will likely have until Maryland's Week 8 bye to prove he deserves to stick around. That won't be easy considering the Terrapins' schedule is rather stacked against them.
They should start the year off 2-0 after facing Howard and UConn. East Coast neighbor Virginia Tech will be a key first test not only for Locksley but also for former Penn State head coach James Franklin. Arguably, Franklin needs the win more than Locksley does but if the latter is unsuccessful, he's got four games to make things right.
Maryland next faces UCLA at home, then travels to Nebraska and Ohio State before hosting Rutgers before the bye. I'm not worried about the Huskers or Buckeyes, those are expected losses. But falling to the Bruins and/or Scarlet Knights would be disappointing with the expectations already low.
If Locksley can't return to the eight-win standard he set before 2024, the program may have to cut him loose and figure out how to find their own Cignetti to escape the Big Ten basement.
Luke Fickell, Wisconsin
Since taking Cincinnati to the CFP in 2021, Fickell hasn't managed to win more than seven games in a season. Competing in the Big Ten requires consistency and innovation. Fickell's tenure in Madison has been consistent…consistently getting worse. The Badgers went 5-7 in 2024 and then 4-8 in 2025, that's the wrong direction no matter who the coach is.
Despite owning a contract that runs through 2032 and humbly declining a one-year extension surprisingly offered by the school, Fickell's days are numbered and that number may be less than the total weeks there are in a season.
Wisconsin unfortunately kicks off the 2026 campaign against Notre Dame at Lambeau Field. As long as the Badgers aren't shut out or victims of a 40+ burger, Fickell should get the opportunity to continue... for the time being.
Back-to-back matchups with Western Illinois and Eastern Michigan follow and if Wisconsin drops either of these, that could be the last straw. If not, look to the Week 6 bye as the next benchmark.
A matchup with a rebuilding Penn State could be a key opportunity to pull off an upset and buy Fickell more time. Though a loss to head coach Matt Campbell and quarterback Rocco Becht wouldn't necessarily spell doom. The following week against Michigan State very well could though.
If the administration still sticks with Fickell through the bye, he'll be required to go 5-2 to finish out the season. That means beating at least UCLA, Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue and rival Minnesota. Falling to USC and Iowa would be acceptable but no longer can Wisconsin associate with the basement dwellers the second half of its schedule favorably contains.
Shane Beamer, South Carolina
Inconsistency has been the name of the game for Beamer in Columbia. He's not been able to go a single season with less than four losses and the up-and-down nature of the previous three seasons must have the administration frustrated.
Beamer has one last season with Heisman Trophy-contending quarterback LaNorris Sellers and he'd better make the most of it. I'm not saying he's got to win the SEC to keep his job but there could be a CFP-or-bust ultimatum weighing on his shoulders. The SEC is as wide open as it's ever been so it's not like there isn't an opening either.
The Gamecocks will likely start their season 3-0 with wins over Kent State, Towson and Mississippi State. Any loss in that stretch should put Beamer immediately on the hot seat.
After that, a challenging stretch ahead of their Week 7 bye will set the tone for the rest of the year. Alabama, Kentucky and Florida are all winnable games but Beamer can afford a loss to Alabama. The second half of the year, though, will be rough.
Tennessee, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Georgia and Clemson await and besides a must-win against Arkansas, Beamer has to figure out how to pull off an upset or two to stay in contention for the SEC title game. Anything less and the questions will turn into hard conversations in Columbia.
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