Predicting how many ACC teams will be ranked in the first AP poll

The ACC may be more than a one-team league, but it will have to prove it to the rest of FBS first.
Jeff Brohm, Louisville Cardinals
Jeff Brohm, Louisville Cardinals | Isaiah Vazquez/GettyImages

With the AP Top 25 Poll coming out on Monday, we only have so much time left to sink our teeth into the Coaches Poll. Oh, you can still do that up until the regular season starts if you feel so inclined. I am just saying that another newer poll, and one with a bit more gravitas will be coming out in less than 72 hours. Once the AP Poll has dropped, it is our guiding light until the College Football Playoff rankings.

So far, I have wrote about if I think there will be any major differences in either poll in the SEC and in the Big Ten. I tend to think that both Power Four leagues will be getting an additional team into the top 25 than what we saw from the Coaches Poll. As for the ACC, I know that Clemson will be ranked, as will Miami, and probably SMU as well. Beyond the Mustangs, I am not entirely sure of a fourth team...

As a point of reference in this exercise, here is theĀ US LBM Coaches Poll ahead of the college season.

Preseason Coaches Poll for 2025 college football season

  1. Texas Longhorns: 1,606 points (28 first-place votes)
  2. Ohio State Buckeyes: 1,565 points (20 first-place votes)
  3. Penn State Nittany Lions: 1,525 points (14 first-place votes)
  4. Georgia Bulldogs: 1,466 points (3 first-place votes)
  5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 1,360 points
  6. Clemson Tigers: 1,324 points (2 first-place votes)
  7. Oregon Ducks: 1,307 points
  8. Alabama Crimson Tide: 1,210 points
  9. LSU Tigers: 1,056 points
  10. Miami Hurricanes; 823 points
  11. Arizona State Sun Devils: 806 points
  12. Illinois Fighting Illini: 734 points
  13. South Carolina Gamecocks: 665 points
  14. Michigan Wolverines: 580 points
  15. Ole Miss Rebels: 573 points
  16. SMU Mustangs: 555 points
  17. Florida Gators: 498 points
  18. Tennessee Volunteers: 492 points
  19. Indiana Hoosiers: 460 points
  20. Kansas State Wildcats: 438 points
  21. Texas A&M Aggies: 392 points
  22. Iowa State Cyclones: 392 points
  23. BYU Cougars: 287 points
  24. Texas Tech Red Raiders: 261 points
  25. Boise State Broncos: 246 points

To help illustrate what teams on the outside looking may have a shot, here is everyone with one point.

  • Oklahoma Sooners: 221 points
  • Missouri Tigers: 142 points
  • Louisville Cardinals: 126 points
  • USC Trojans: 116 points
  • Utah Utes: 86 points
  • Baylor Bears: 76 points
  • Auburn Tigers: 50 points
  • Iowa Hawkeyes: 49 points
  • Memphis Tigers: 34 points
  • Army Black Knights: 33 points
  • Tulane Green Wave: 31 points
  • Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: 27 points
  • TCU Horned Frogs: 24 points
  • Nebraska Cornhuskers: 19 points
  • Syracuse Orange: 16 points
  • Washington Huskies: 15 points
  • Navy Midshipmen: 14 points
  • Arkansas Razorbacks: 14 points
  • Duke Blue Devils: 12 points
  • Colorado Buffaloes: 12 points
  • Minnesota Golden Gophers: 11 points
  • UNLV Rebels: 8 points
  • Florida State Seminoles: 8 points
  • Kansas Jayhawks: 6 points
  • Vanderbilt Commodores: 3 points
  • Buffalo Bulls: 1 point

As you can see, five other ACC teams beyond Clemson, Miami and SMU received votes. I may be higher on Louisville, Georgia Tech and even Duke's chances of cracking the Preseason AP Top 25 over what teams like Florida State and Syracuse could put forth. My big thought in all this is will the ACC be stuck at three teams, or will they somehow get a fourth team ranked to start this season?

I think it is going to be very close, but the Associated Press must feel way differently about one team.

What ACC teams are going to make the Preseason AP Top 25 Poll?

I have broken each ACC team down into four groups: Locks, probables, borderlines and not a chance.

  • Locks (2): Clemson, Miami
  • Probables (1): SMU
  • Borderlines (2): Louisville, Georgia Tech
  • Not a Chance (12): Duke, Syracuse, Florida State, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Boston College, Virginia, Virginia Tech, California, Wake Forest, Stanford

Clemson is one of seven bona-fide locks to make the College Football Playoff. The Tigers will be ranked inside of the top seven in the Preseason AP Top 25 Poll. They are one of five teams I think can realistically win a national championship this season. I am exceedingly high on this team. I have Miami as the other lock because they went 10-2 last year and have a new star quarterback in Carson Beck.

The only borderline team I have is SMU. I wanted to put them in as a lock to make the top 25, I really did. Once again, I am very high on what the Mustangs can do this season under Rhett Lashlee for another season with Kevin Jennings as the undisputed starting quarterback. Yet for some reason, I have a bad feeling there is a non-zero chance somebody out there with a ballot may short the Ponies.

As far as borderline candidates are concerned, I have two in Louisville and Georgia Tech. Along with Miami and SMU, the Cardinals and the Yellow Jackets feel like the four most likely teams to make it to Charlotte to play Clemson for an ACC title. Duke is probably sixth, but the Blue Devils have not had as much positive publicity being put out about them as the Cardinals and the Jackets have this summer.

So if I have Duke as not a chance to be ranked to start, what does that say about the rest of the ACC? Syracuse could prove everyone wrong again, but that takes time. Florida State had a year from hell. Otherwise, the Seminoles might get the benefit of the doubt from the AP Poll. As for Pitt, UNC, NC State, Boston College, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Cal, Wake Forest and Stanford, let's get one point first.

For the sake of being positive, I will put Louisville in there as the No. 25 team over BYU and others.

  • Clemson Tigers
  • Miami Hurricanes
  • SMU Mustangs
  • Louisville Cardinals

More college football news and analysis: