College football fans, we now have our guiding light, at least for the time being. With the AP Top 25 poll coming out on Monday afternoon, this is going to be the way we determine who the best teams in college football are until the College Football Playoff selection committee reconvenes for the first time in and around Dallas shortly after Halloween. Discussions are about to be had now!
With the preseason Coaches Poll coming out last week, I did the same exercise in taking the data they gave me and putting forth a projected College Football Playoff field. While I do not agree with everything the Associated Press inevitably decided upon, who am I to challenge the holy sanctity of the AP Top 25 poll for the time being? I have to recalibrate a few things upstairs, but I surely got this.
Here is what the preseason AP Top 25 Poll looks like ahead of Week 0.
Preseason AP Top 25 Poll ahead of 2025 college football season
- Texas Longhorns: 1,552 points (25 first-place votes)
- Penn State Nittany Lions: 1,547 points (23 first-place votes)
- Ohio State Buckeyes: 1,472 points (11 first-place votes)
- Clemson Tigers: 1,398 points (4 first-place votes)
- Georgia Bulldogs: 1,331 points (1 first-place vote)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 1,325 points
- Oregon Ducks: 1,236 points (1 first-place vote)
- Alabama Crimson Tide: 1,179 points
- LSU Tigers: 1,174 points
- Miami Hurricanes: 889 points
- Arizona State Sun Devils: 791 points
- Illinois Fighting Illini: 713 points
- South Carolina Gamecocks: 667 points
- Michigan Wolverines: 662 points
- Florida Gators: 626 points
- SMU Mustangs: 565 points
- Kansas State Wildcats: 512 points
- Oklahoma Sooners: 463 points
- Texas A&M Aggies: 434 points
- Indiana Hoosiers: 423 points
- Ole Miss Rebels: 380 points
- Iowa State Cyclones: 309 points
- Texas Tech Red Raiders: 274 points
- Tennessee Volunteers: 192 points
- Boise State Broncos: 191 points
For reference, here is every other team that received at least one vote from the Associated Press.
- BYU Cougars: 156 points
- Utah Utes: 144 points
- Louisville Cardinals: 90 points
- USC Trojans: 64 points
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: 63 points
- Missouri Tigers: 33 points
- Tulane Green Wave: 23 points
- Nebraska Cornhuskers: 23 points
- UNLV Rebels: 21 points
- Toledo Rockets: 13 points
- Auburn Tigers: 10 points
- James Madison Dukes: 9 points
- Memphis Tigers: 9 points
- Florida State Seminoles: 8 points
- Duke Blue Devils: 6 points
- Liberty Flames: 5 points
- Navy Midshipmen: 5 points
- Iowa Hawkeyes: 5 points
- TCU Horned Frogs: 4 points
- Pittsburgh Panthers: 3 points
- Army Black Knights: 2 points
- Colorado Buffaloes: 1 point
- Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns: 1 point
Based on that, here is what the projected College Football Playoff looks like if the first AP poll holds true.
- Texas Longhorns (Projected SEC champions)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (Projected Big Ten champions)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
- Clemson Tigers (Projected ACC champions)
- Georgia Bulldogs (Projected SEC runner-up)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Projected national independent at-large)
- Oregon Ducks (Projected Big Ten at-large)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (Projected SEC at-large)
- LSU Tigers (Projected SEC at-large)
- Miami Hurricanes (Projected ACC runner-up)
- Arizona State Sun Devils (Projected Big 12 champions)
- Boise State Broncos (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champions)
For a bit more context, these would be the first four teams out of the College Football Playoff field.
- 13. Illinois Fighting Illini (Big Ten)
- 14. South Carolina Gamecocks (SEC)
- 15. Michigan Wolverines (Big Ten)
- 16. Florida Gators (SEC)
Assuming this is what the College Football Playoff field looks like, here is how it all might play out.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket based on the Preseason AP Top 25 Poll
Here are the teams that would be getting first-round byes, as well as who all will play in the first round.
- No. 1 Texas Longhorns (BYE)
- No. 2 Penn State Nittany Lions (BYE)
- No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (BYE)
- No. 4 Clemson Tigers (BYE)
- No. 12 Boise State Broncos at No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs
- No. 11 Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- No. 10 Miami Hurricanes at No. 7 Oregon Ducks
- No. 9 LSU Tigers at No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide
While Texas, Penn State, Ohio State and Clemson have an opportunity to get healthier, Georgia, Notre Dame, Oregon, Alabama, LSU, Miami, Arizona State and Boise State will all have to play in the opening round. Based on the preseason AP Top 25 poll, Georgia will host Boise State, Notre Dame welcomes Arizona State to town, Oregon awaits Miami and it will be LSU traveling to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama over at Bryant-Denny.
Again, a lot of these matchups are similar to what the preseason Coaches Poll gave me. From that, I had Carson Beck playing the game of his life in Autzen to stun Oregon. I also banked on Garrett Nussmeier being clutch vs. Ty Simpson and company previously. While they are playing in different locations, I struggle to see Boise State upsetting Georgia and Arizona State beating Notre Dame, too.
I have two road teams advancing, but let's now see who all is getting matched up in the quarterfinals.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national quarterfinals
These are the four quarterfinal matchups of note, based on what I think happens in the first round.
- Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 9 LSU Tigers
- Rose Bowl: No. 2 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 10 Miami Hurricanes
- Orange Bowl: No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Sugar Bowl: No. 4 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs
Texas welcomes fellow SEC foe LSU in-state in the Cotton Bowl. Penn State gets to play Miami in the Rose Bowl. It will be a rematch of last year's national championship in the Orange Bowl, as Ohio State takes on Notre Dame. As for the Sugar Bowl, a pair of regional rivals clash in New Orleans with Clemson awaiting Georgia. These four matchups give us more variance than what I ever expected.
Texas will have the far superior defense over LSU and shall advance to the semifinals accordingly. Penn State will not get as good of an effort from Miami as what the Hurricanes showed Oregon in Eugene the previous week. The Nittany Lions advance without putting forth that much of an effort. As for the other quarterfinals, it could go either way, but I feel strong in my conviction of who advances.
Ohio State has better athletes out on the perimeter and that will end up problematic for Notre Dame in the end. As for the Sugar Bowl, I think Georgia's offensive line is better than Clemson's and their defense is more complete, top to bottom. It will not be by much, but the Dawgs will have their day in New Orleans after seeing their season come to an end vs. Notre Dame in the same venue a year ago.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national semifinals
These are the two national semifinals to be had from this College Football Playoff field projection.
- Peach Bowl: No. 1 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs
- Fiesta Bowls: No. 2 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes
And look what we have here! I would venture to guess that Texas and Georgia will have already met in Atlanta for a second time this season to decide the SEC. You would probably guess Texas won the second meeting, maybe even between the hedges in Athens, but how would the Dawgs be the No. 5 seed with two losses to Texas heading into the playoff? I think they split the pair with UGA winning at home.
As far as what could have gone down in Indianapolis, I am of the belief that Ohio State won the regular season meeting before losing to Penn State in the title bout. Based on where the Buckeyes rank two spots behind Texas, maybe the Longhorns won the regular-season opener in The Horseshoe? Otherwise, I do not know why a two-loss SEC champion would be the No. 1 seed over a Big Ten team.
So from here, I have Texas getting past Georgia a second time in a row in this projection, mostly because of attrition the Dawgs have suffered by having to play one more playoff game than Texas up to this point. Atlanta can be a house of horrors for the Dawgs at times. As for Ohio State, they may have lost a game to Penn State in Indianapolis, but I struggle seeing Penn State beating them twice.
So we have a rematch of the highly anticipated regular-season opener in the national championship.
Projected College Football Playoff bracket national championship
Now that we know who advances from the Peach and Fiesta Bowls, here is who is playing in Miami.
- No. 1 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes
This is very close. Texas has more momentum on their side than Ohio State because they will have won their conference championship over Georgia, whereas the Buckeyes lost to Penn State in Indianapolis. Then again, Ohio State lost its final regular-season game to Michigan a year ago, only to go on a run for the ages en route to winning the first 12-team College Football Playoff as a No. 8 seed.
Both of these teams are among the five I think can realistically win a national championship from the start. Against my better judgement, I think Steve Sarkisian outcoaches Ryan Day in a very critical spot. Arch Manning is asked to make a big play in a crucial moment and he delivers. This will result in Texas winning by one score. They win their first national title in 20 years and Sarkisian's first as well.
Overall, I think how this projection works out differently than what the Coaches Poll gave us is how important the first-round bye is. Clemson did not get it in the Coaches Poll, and Georgia has to play a home playoff game in the AP Top 25. Frankly, having to play a home playoff game hurts Georgia more than anyone. Rather than get to the national title bout, the Dawgs now lose in the national semifinals.
If there is any major delineation between the SEC winner and runner-up, that may decide a champion.