Projected college football rankings after Baylor upsets SMU, Illinois blasts Duke

Baylor needed overtime but a field goal helped them stun No. 17 SMU on the road, while Illinois handled business at Duke.
Baylor Bears wide receiver Josh Cameron
Baylor Bears wide receiver Josh Cameron | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The ACC had all the drama in the early window with Baylor pulling off a crazy upset over SMU in a massive road win. This was a win Baylor needed badly after a letdown against Auburn in the season opener. With the win, Baylor should absolutely jump into the rankings. I don’t think they’ll have a Florida State climb into the rankings, but they should make their 2025 debut.

Bret Bielema has Illinois well within the College Football Playoff conversation after surviving Duke on the road on Saturday. Week 2 in college football wasn’t as exciting as Week 1 from a matchups standpoint, but it did provide some key matchups that have College Football Playoff ranking implications on them. 

Had Duke pulled off the upset, it would have strengthened their resume, especially with Clemson as the only other ranked team on their schedule this year. With Illinois pulling off the win, they push closer to cracking the top 10. After the early window games, here’s a projected poll after Illinois handles business against Duke and Baylor pulls off the big Week 2 upset.

Projected Top 25 after Illinois survives Duke, Baylor stuns SMU

  1. Ohio State Buckeyes
  2. Penn State Nittany Lions
  3. LSU Tigers
  4. Georgia Bulldogs
  5. Miami Hurricanes
  6. Oregon Ducks
  7. Texas Longhorns
  8. Clemson Tigers
  9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
  10. South Carolina Gamecocks
  11. Illinois Fighting Illini
  12. Arizona State Sun Devils
  13. Florida Gators
  14. Florida State Seminoles
  15. Oklahoma Sooners
  16. Iowa State Cyclones
  17. Michigan Wolverines
  18. Texas A&M Aggies
  19. Ole Miss Rebels
  20. Alabama Crimson Tide
  21. Tennessee Volunteers
  22. Indiana Hoosiers
  23. Texas Tech Red Raiders
  24. Utah Utes
  25. Baylor Bears

Dropped out: SMU Mustangs (17)

Not nearly as much action in this week’s projected poll as it was in last week’s after a lot of upset losses and crazy wins. Illinois doesn’t move despite a convincing win over Duke. After all, they were supposed to win and probably dominate that game. Bielema has put Illinois on the map and with a favorable Big Ten schedule, getting the win over Duke just proves this team isn’t messing around this year. 

Baylor debuts in Top 25 after beating SMU in overtime

The Bears were always going to have SMU on upset alert. It was a frustrating loss to Auburn in a game they gave up 300 rushing yards. They made up for it with a win over SMU and they’re rewarded with a spot in the top 25. They were on the cusp of being ranked at the beginning of the season. This win should help them in and might even give them enough boost to leap into the top 20.

It also has to make you wonder about Auburn itself. If Baylor was able to go blow-for-blow with a Top 20 team like SMU, perhaps the Tigers beating the Bears on the road was more impressive than we even initially thought in Week 1.

More Week 2 games with college football rankings implications

Every other ranked team playing in the early window picked up a win on Saturday afternoon, but there are plenty of potentially meaningful games for the AP Top 25 still to come in Week 2.

The biggest game is the only ranked-on-ranked matchup of the week with Michigan and Oklahoma battling in Norman. Depending on how that game plays out, one could drop out of the rankings with a loss, though a close loss for either side could ultimately save their spot in the Top 25.

Beyond that, Ole Miss has had trouble in the past with Kentucky and, on the road in Lexington, that could be a game to watch. The same is true for the Florida Gators hosting the USF Bulls, a team coming off of dismantling Boise State. And don't overlook Arizona State making the trip to Starkville to play Mississippi State. The Sun Devils should be the better team, but strange things could be brewing in the land of the cowbells.