The College Football Playoff first round did not go entirely as many pundits thought it would. Both Group of Five challengers were vanquished, as expected, but the two at-large away teams (Alabama at Oklahoma, Miami at Texas A&M) made history by emerging victorious.
Those results leave us with some very juicy quarterfinal matchups, offering the same potential on neutral ground — but some are more likely to be upsets than others. Let's evaluate which of the CFP New Year's bowl games could shock fans the most.
Ranking the CFP quarterfinals by upset potential
4. Ole Miss vs. Georgia
Georgia was eliminated in this very same round last season — and at the Sugar Bowl, too — so the Dawgs will be looking to avenge that loss this time around. Head coach Kirby Smart is well aware of how damaging 26 days off can be to a program in a single-elimination tournament where momentum is everything.
Ole Miss, on the other hand, will want to follow up their offensive explosion over Tulane with a repeat performance. Running back Kewan Lacy, who rushed for just 87 yards and a touchdown in the first round, will need to step up against a stout Georgia defensive front. If he couldn't break loose against Tulane, the Dawgs may eat him and the Rebels alive in New Orleans.
3. Miami vs. Ohio State
The Hurricanes smothered the Texas A&M offense at Kyle Field and only needed a single touchdown to escape with the 10-3 win. Ohio State's sluggish performance against Indiana in the Big Ten title game will be crucial tape for Miami to watch as it prepares to take on the Buckeye offense which has proven it can rack up points when unchallenged.
But the biggest point against a Miami upset is Ohio State's own defense. It's allowed a best-in-the nation 8.15 points per game, and if Hurricanes QB Carson Beck is stumped early, the No. 10 seed will find itself in a deep hole that will be insurmountable.
2. Oregon vs. Texas Tech
Can we really consider an Oregon win an upset when the Ducks have looked every bit the part of national title contender of late? Texas Tech is inexperienced on this stage, and its admittedly dominant Big 12 coronation isn't going to matter much in the quarterfinal at the Orange Bowl.
Ducks head coach Dan Lanning saw his boys put a 50-burger up on James Madison, as expected, but the Red Raiders' 10.92 points allowed per game this year (third-best in the nation) could prove to be a significant road block. The 26 days off for Texas Tech could be the biggest factor in this one, with Oregon rolling on pure momentum and the former having to shake off some significant rust that could cost them a hot start.
1. Alabama vs. Indiana
Will the No. 1 seed fall in the quarterfinal for the second year in a row? If it were any other team facing Indiana at the Rose Bowl, I'd be more inclined to say no. But this is Alabama, and in the CFP, the Crimson Tide seem to always find a way to win. (Although the last time they visited Pasadena, the Tournament of Roses was ... not so rosy.)
That being said, Indiana is better than it was last year but still wildly inexperienced compared to Alabama. The long time off will factor in to the Hoosiers' fitness, and the Tide will be primed to take advantage of it. Don't be surprised if head coach Kalen DeBoer further staves off rumors of employment at Michigan with another victory.