No team had punched its ticket to the SEC Championship Game entering Week 14 and rivalry week to begin with. However, that got thrown even more on its head on Friday night in Austin as the Texas Longhorns pulled off an emphatic upset over the previously undefeated Texas A&M Aggies. Now, the college football world will be watching with bated breath as the SEC tiebreakers will be decided during Saturday's action, even with Georgia and Ole Miss having already played (and won).
To be clear, we have more clarity, but there are still a couple of permutations for how things could play out with SEC tiebreakers that could really shake things up for the conference heading into its championship game next week in Atlanta.
Texas A&M eliminated from SECCG with Texas loss, Georgia locked in
Texas A&M's loss on the road at DKR to the rival Longhorns stings worse than a normal defeat this time of year. With the loss, the Aggies are officially elminated from the SEC Championship Game, despite having only one loss on the year and in conference play.
The Aggies, even if they were to end up tied with Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss in terms of conference record, will be decisively left out thanks to the cumulative winning percentage of conference opponents. Texas A&M has enjoyed a great year, but one aspect of the season that's been brought into a more prominent light in recent weeks has been the fact that Mike Elko's team has played one of the weakest schedules in the SEC. In fact, Texas is the only team the Aggies have faced this season that ranks in the top-half of the conference standings — and they lost. Now, that's going to bite them and keep them out of Atlanta.
Conversely, while Georgia not only won in rivalry week, their status in the SEC was already set after finishing with a 7-1 record and a rivalry matchup against a non-conference Georgia Tech. But with the A&M loss on Friday night and the aforementioned tiebreakers, Georgia has now officially secured its spot in the SEC Championship Game.
What they'll be waiting on now is to find out who these Dawgs will be facing in Atlanta, a proverbial home game for Kirby Smart's team. That's what will be decided on Saturday, with a specific eye toward The Plains with Alabama-Auburn in the Iron Bowl to decide that.
How Alabama can make the SEC Championship Game
Scenarios for Alabama
- Win vs. Auburn and in
It's a simple task, at least in theory, for Alabama. If they win the Iron Bowl on the road against Auburn on Saturday evening, the Crimson Tide will set up a vaunted rematch with Georgia in Atlanta that should be quite a thrilling affair. That would give the Crimson Tide the edge in terms of conference opponent winning percentage and push them ahead of the Dawgs and Rebels in the standings to get them the No. 1 seed in the conference.
While that sounds good, there are two things to consider. One, despite Auburn's struggles this season, the Tigers have found something interesting offensively with Deuce Knight when he came into the mix last week, which could not only improve that ailing side of the ball but give Bama a look they're largely unprepared for. More importantly, though, Auburn's defense has been fearsome, especially at home this season.
That's finnicky for the Crimson Tide more than anything because a win over Auburn is their only path to the SEC Championship Game. With Ole Miss having already emerged victorious in the Egg Bowl, a loss would put Alabama on the outside looking in for the title bout.
How Ole Miss can make the SEC Championship Game
Scenarios for Ole Miss
- With win over Mississippi State, Alabama loss vs. Auburn puts Rebels in
As mentioned, Ole Miss avoided any semblance of catastrophe amid the looming Lane Kiffin uncertainty as he weighs his coaching future. They delivered a decisive victory over rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl on Friday afternoon, which was the first order of business that the Rebels needed to take care of in order to have a chance at making it to the SEC Championship Game. Now, all they'll need is for Alabama to lose the Iron Bowl.
The Crimson Tide falling to Auburn would push Alabama down in the standings with two conference losses on the season, and then set up a three-way tie between Georgia, Ole Miss and Texas A&M atop the standings. However, as mentioned already, the Rebels would best A&M in the SEC tiebreaker for conference opponents' winning percentage, though they would still be behind the Bulldogs and enter the title game as the No. 2 seed.
Having said that, if the Rebels can get the help they need, it would set up a rematch with Georgia. That'd be a fun turn of events for college football fans, too, as the regular season meeting between the SEC foes was one of the best games of the year. The big question, though, would be if Kiffin would be on the sidelines for Ole Miss in that game should they make it to Atlanta.