These 3 matchups will decide Ole Miss vs. Georgia at the Sugar Bowl

The Rebels and Dawgs will have their rematch in the same stadium Georgia saw its national title ambitions come to a premature end last year.
Michael Castillo

Despite the drama and uncertainty surrounding former head coach Lane Kiffin's departure from Oxford to Baton Rouge, Ole Miss was able to handle business against another Louisiana team in the first round of the College Football Playoff.

The Rebels throttled Tulane 41-10 and now have the privilege of meeting up with a familiar foe in the quarterfinal round. SEC champion Georgia awaits in New Orleans (boy, a lot of Louisiana connections) at the Sugar Bowl for a rematch of their regular season matchup.

CFP quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl: At a glance

Matchup: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia
When: Jan. 1, 2026, at 8 p.m. EST
Where: Caesar's Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana
Records: Ole Miss (12-1), Georgia (12-1)

The Bulldogs defended Sanford Stadium 43-35 back in October, but this high-stakes edition could offer a much different result if the right matchups are exploited.

Georgia vs. the bye week(s)

When Georgia steps onto the field at the Superdome, the team will be taking meaningful snaps for the first time in 26 days, which is nearly a month off. The Dawgs don't have fond memories of what that kind of break can do to a team in the CFP.

Last season, each of the top four seeds that received a bye into the quarterfinals were eliminated by the challengers emerging from the first round. Georgia was one of them, falling 23-10 to Notre Dame in the same stadium and bowl game. Ole Miss will need every advantage it can get, and momentum may be the difference, especially if Georgia has lost its head of steam.

Kewan Lacy vs. Georgia's defensive line

The Rebels' leading rusher, Kewan Lacy, logged 1,279 yards during the regular season, good for ninth-most in the FBS. He's also scored the second-most touchdowns in the sport (21) and hasn't shown any signs of slowing down. However, he may be running into a black and red buzzsaw when he meets the Georgia defense.

The Dawgs allowed an average of 79.2 rushing yards per game (fifth-least in the FBS) and just 12 scores from the ground this year. Lacy is averaging 105.1 per contest and 5.0 yards per carry but he was stuffed for just 31 yards in the Oct. 18 duel in Athens. (He still scored two touchdowns from short distance). If Lacy is still making it into the end zone, his total yardage won't matter at the end of the day. But if he's able to play closer to his average production, then Georgia could be in trouble.

Georgia's offensive line vs. Ole Miss' pass rush

Despite Georgia's ability to win games, QB Gunner Stockton has gotten well acquainted with the ground this year. The Dawgs have allowed 18 sacks and are facing an Ole Miss team that has racked up 25.0 on the year, including one against Stockton. Preventing the Rebels from reaching him in the backfield will be critical.

Increased pressure results in rushed progressions and rushed progressions become turnovers. Stockton has thrown just five interceptions this year and completed 70.7 percent of his passes. If his offensive line gives him the opportunity to keep his composure in the pocket, then the Rebels defense could get picked apart in a hurry. But if the opposite is reality, then Georgia could be in for a repeat of last season's failure.

How this game flips

ESPN's matchup predictor gives Georgia a 60.1 percent chance to advance to the semifinal, but that's going to be contingent on how fresh the Dawgs are after such a long time off. Ole Miss has momentum, and if Lacy gets rolling and has a 100-plus yard game, the Rebels are going to pull off the upset. If Georgia can contain him and force inexperienced QB Trinidad Chambliss into pressured situations, it'll avenge the program's early exit from last year.

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