The Oregon Ducks looked practically unstoppable in their College Football Playoff first round matchup against James Madison. By halftime, the No. 5 seed was dominating the No. 12 seed 34-6 and by the third quarter, second stringers were in on defense.
Fans can ignore the 28-point explosion by the Dukes in the second half, as Oregon finished with 51 points of offense and looked every bit the part of a dark horse to win the national championship.
Now, the Ducks will travel across the country to meet the 4-seed, Texas Tech, in Miami for the CFP quarterfinal at the Orange Bowl. It might be safe to say the winner of that matchup could be named the hottest team left in the bracket, as the Ducks and the Red Raiders are currently winners of seven and six consecutive contests, respectively. But here are the matchups we believe will decide the game.
CFP quarterfinal at the Orange Bowl: At a glance
- Matchup: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
- When: Jan. 1, 2026, at Noon EST
- Where: Hard Rock Stadium in Coral Gables, Florida
- Records: Oregon (12-1), Texas Tech (12-1)
Texas Tech vs. the bye week(s)
By the time the Red Raiders take the field at Hard Rock Stadium on New Year's Day, they'll have not played a single snap of meaningful football in 26 days - nearly a whole month off. In last year's CFP quarterfinals, each of the top four seeds that received a first round bye were eliminated by the challengers.
Combine that with Texas Tech's inexperience in the postseason and that could be a recipe for disaster. Oregon has been here before, in fact, it fell victim to the eventual national champion Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl last year as the No. 1 overall seed. With the role essentially reversed, the Ducks could have all the momentum it needs to roll into the semifinals.
Both offenses vs. both defenses
What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object in college football? Well, we're all about to find out on January 1. Oregon boasts the No. 9 scoring offense and the No. 8 scoring defense in the country, posting an average of 38.2 points per game and giving up just 14.83 per contest.
The Red Raiders, on the other hand, are scoring an average of 42.5 points per game (No. 2) and surrendering a mere 10.92 points per game (No. 3). While it may seem Texas Tech has the statistical advantage, especially considering JMU gashed the Ducks defense for 34 points (second stringers be damned), this is where fatigue and the bye week factor are going to matter the most. If Texas Tech is operating at or above average, Oregon is in trouble.
Dante Moore vs. the Red Raider secondary
Ball security is always key in a national championship pursuit. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore has thrown eight picks this season and will need to be as sharp as ever against the stingy Texas Tech secondary.
The Red Raiders have intercepted 12 passes from opponents this year (returning one for a touchdown) and accrued 206 yards on the returns (17 yards per return). The turnover margin could be the biggest decider in this contest and if Oregon's high-flying offense gets too loose with its execution, that could cost them big time.
How this game flips
Oregon will seemingly be on the right side of the supposed bye week curse this time, and if its decimation of JMU was any indication, it has momentum. Texas Tech will need its defense to play to its third-in-the-nation status to halt the incoming onslaught. If the Ducks offense has found the end zone at least three times before halftime, the Red Raiders better hope they've found it at least four. Otherwise, a shootout in Miami won't just be a side quest in GTA 6.