If you want to bet on Arch Manning winning the Heisman Trophy and being the No. 1 overall pick by the hometown New Orleans Saints in the 2026 NFL Draft, you can go right ahead and lose all your hard-earned money. In time, he may win a Heisman Trophy, he may win a national championship and he may go No. 1 overall, but we have to let him start for a full season first before we crown the guy...
The hype train has long left the station, and it is all systems failure on the brakes, I am afraid. Keep in mind that nobody in his famous family ever won the Heisman or a national championship in college. Tennessee won it all the year after Uncle Peyton turned pro. That being said, I still believe Manning has a bright future, but this is not going to be a one-year thing for him quarterbacking over at Texas.
Regardless of how I emphatically believe he should stay in school for at least two more years, people love putting him in the first round of NFL mock drafts. Sayre Bedinger of NFL Spin Zone had Manning going No. 8 overall to his Uncle Peyton's Indianapolis Colts. Under no circumstances would I want to play in the house that his Super Bowl-winning uncle built. They might need a quarterback, but no way!
Here are six other quarterbacks that I think have a decent chance to be first-round picks next spring.
6. Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza
In probably the most stunning selection in Bedinger's draft, he had the Los Angeles Rams taking former Cal transfer Fernando Mendoza at No. 10 out of Indiana. The Rams have this pick because the Atlanta Falcons traded up in the 2024 NFL Draft to take James Pearce Jr. out of Tennessee. First off, Atlanta is going to be picking closer to the 20s than in the top 10. Also, is Mendoza even coming out?
While I am okay with the Rams taking Mendoza as a potential Matthew Stafford successor, he has yet to play a down for Curt Cignetti in Bloomington. In my estimation, Mendoza is not quite a first-round pick. Yes, he is an upgrade over Kurtis Rourke, who went to the San Francisco 49ers in the seventh round out of IU after playing the bulk of his college football career at Ohio U. So what about Mendoza?
If all goes according to plan, he may be as good as QB3 in next year's draft. It would require Manning, Arizona State's Sam Leavitt and South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers to all stay in school. I am leaning closer to them all doing it than even one of them turning pro. Mendoza could be seen as a better pro prospect over Penn State's Drew Allar, but not LSU's Garrett Nussmeier and Clemson's Cade Klubnik.
Mendoza does not strike me as a college football player who would leave any eligibility on the table.
5. Arizona State Sun Devils quarterback Sam Leavitt
I was kind of surprised to not see Arizona State Sun Devils quarterback Sam Leavitt to be found anywhere in Bedinger's latest NFL mock draft for NFL Spin Zone. Although I am way higher on him than Fernando Mendoza, I could see a scenario in which Leavitt does turn pro after this upcoming season. South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers is in that same boat to where they may have enough starts.
Leavitt is probably the Big 12's best shot at getting back-to-back Heisman winners this year, but we do have to remember three things with this intriguing quarterback prospect. One, Arizona State is not sneaking up on anyone. Two, Marcus Arroyo is overqualified to be the offensive coordinator at ASU. And three, the Sun Devils' offense ran through All-American running back Cam Skattebo last season.
What I am saying is while Leavitt may be electrifying this season, he may experience some growing pains. Brock Purdy dealt with this to some extent during his prolific college career at Iowa State. Leavitt is a more physically talented version of him, but I do see some similarities in their game. At the end of the day, Leavitt is a future first-round pick, but I think he needs two more year's worth of starts.
In a best-case scenario, I could see him being the third or fourth quarterback taken in the late teens.
4. Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar
Drew Allar continues to be the most disrespected quarterback in all of college football. He may need to get better at his decision-making, but he was every bit the blue-chip prospect coming out. While Bedinger did not have him listed as a first-round pick in his latest mock, I have a hard time seeing all 32 NFL teams passing on him. It is because they did not pass on two weaker versions of him before.
I am 100 percent talking about J.J. McCarthy and Zach Wilson. Athletically, all three can play in the NFL. Wilson's decision-making is why he is about to wash out of the league. While I do not trust McCarthy as far as he can throw a football while spinning around and whipping it behind his back, I feel that Allar can play the quarterback position with a bit more feel and clarity from inside the pocket.
While I would not have him any higher than QB3 in any serious NFL mock draft, he could benefit from the Todd Blackledge effect from over 40 years ago. Being the starting quarterback of a national championship-winning Penn State team matters. It is why the Kansas City Chiefs took Blackledge over Jim Kelly, Tony Eason, Ken O'Brien and Dan Marino. All four of them were far better NFL players.
I am willing to play the long game in the belief that Allar will end up being a top-16 pick next spring.
3. South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers
Of all the quarterbacks in question, LaNorris Sellers is my absolute favorite. I cannot say enough good things about the South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback. On almost every False Start episode, my co-host and FanSided.com colleague rave about the guy. However, we are both of the belief that Sellers needs to play two more years of college football before he pushes to being the No. 1 pick.
To me, Sellers has the potential to be the next Cam Newton, who went No. 1 overall out of Auburn to the Carolina Panthers in the 2011 NFL Draft. Bedinger has Sellers going No. 5 to the New York Jets in his latest mock draft. While I do think the Jets may have the right pieces in place in new head coach Aaron Glenn and general manager Darren Mougey, Woody Johnson still owns the team, so no thanks.
The absolute last thing we need to see is Sellers to turn pro prematurely and go to a franchise that really does not know what it is doing. Did we not just see this with Anthony Richardson going to the Indianapolis Colts? Again, Sellers is the far better prospect, but I would love to see him mature and grow his game a little more. He should be a top-12 pick this year, but may go No. 1 overall in 2027.
Yes, I would take Sellers over Manning with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft right now.
2. Clemson Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik
Water seems to have found its level when it comes to former five-star recruit Cade Klubnik. He is my way-too-early pick to win the Heisman Trophy, becoming the Clemson Tigers' first in the process. Bedinger has him going No. 1 overall to the New Orleans Saints. While I can sort of get behind that, Garrett Nussmeier's father is the team's offensive coordinator. Klubnik may have Saints' ties as well.
Yes, Klubnik went to the same high school in Austin as Saints legendary quarterback Drew Brees. Although he was far more well-thought-of coming out of Westlake, Klubnik's first two years at Clemson were bumpy. He did not exactly receive the baton well from D.J. Uiagalelei to hit the ground running at Clemson. Klubnik did find his groove during ACC play last season in Garrett Riley's system.
Right now, I have Clemson winning the ACC in back-to-back seasons quite comfortably. This is a team with a national championship-ceiling and a College Football Playoff berth floor. Klubnik needs to show me he can play with a bit more poise under duress and in less-than-advantageous circumstances, but he can make all the throws. He seems to be a great leader and will be in the NFL.
I would be utterly stunned if Klubnik does not end up becoming a top-10 pick in next year's NFL Draft.
1. LSU Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier
Against my better judgment, I cannot quit Garrett Nussmeier. The LSU Tigers starting quarterback seems to be on the same career trajectory that saw Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels before him win the Heisman Trophy en route to being top-two picks. So it is no surprise that Bedinger has Nussmeier going No. 2 overall to the Cleveland Browns. I would not hate to see him go play for Kevin Stefanski.
From a physical standpoint, Nussmeier is of the exact same prototype that got guys like Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, Sam Darnold and Blake Bortles drafted well inside the top 10. They all looked the part in college, yet for whatever reason, we were always left wanting more out of them at the NFL level. I cannot shake that when it comes to evaluating Nussmeier, even with his NFL pedigree.
Having his father Doug be the New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator leads me to believe they may not pass on him. It could be the epitome of daddy ball, but the hometown kid playing for the team his father works for could be a huge hit for a franchise in need of one. If all goes according to plan, Nussmeier may be the No. 1 overall pick in next year's draft. He has a higher ceiling than Klubnik.
For as great as the LSU offense has been in recent years to quarterbacks, this guy is a top-five lock.