There are some NFL teams with wide-open Super Bowl windows that don't look like they'll close any time soon. Kansas City and Philadelphia, the teams that met in last year's game, are both expected to be contenders for a good bit still because they have two of the NFL's best quarterbacks. Likewise, the Bills — who haven't made a Super Bowl yet in the Josh Allen era — should be up there in the battle, as should be the Ravens and the upstart Commanders.
But for other teams, the window to contend for a Super Bowl is right now, or it's even potentially over already. For various reasons, these five teams below are in danger of seeing their contention window slammed shut. For some teams, there's maybe one or two more years to try to gun for a title. For others, 2025 might be the start — or continuation — of a slide down the standings.
Here are five Super Bowl contenders whose window is closing fast.
Los Angeles Rams
The Los Angeles Rams' window remains open until Matthew Stafford is no longer a top NFL quarterback. Considering Stafford is 37 years old, it's clear that we're approaching that point, though we probably aren't there quite yet.
Last season, Stafford led the Rams to a 10-7 record and a big Wild Card win over the Vikings. The team added Davante Adams this offseason, giving Stafford another strong receiving option to complement Puka Nacua.
It's a good move for the team's chances of contending in the present, but adding Adams on just a two-year deal with a potential out after 2026 — his 2026 cap hit is $28 million but the team could save half of that by releasing him next offseason — is definitely the kind of move you make to try to squeeze in one or two more shots at a title. It isn't a move that builds for the future, because the Rams don't really have a future at the moment. With no Stafford successor on the roster, the Rams could be in trouble in the very near future.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady is the defining player from this Buccaneers' recent run of success, as he helped lead the team to a Super Bowl victory after the 2020 season. But in the two seasons post-Brady, the Buccaneers have a pair of division titles thanks to the resurgence of quarterback Baker Mayfield, as the former No. 1 overall pick has finally looked like a top NFL passer.
The problem, though, is that two of the most important parts of this run — wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin — are nearing the end of their viability as high-end NFL receivers.
Add in the weirdness of Mayfield's contract, which balloons to an unworkable amount after 2025 and will have to be reworked if the Buccaneers really feel that Mayfield is their long-term starter, and you get a pretty odd situation here. That's without considering another important question: Is Mayfield good enough to lead a team to a Super Bowl?
Cincinnati Bengals
People like to talk about how a young team that comes close to a title still has plenty more chances, but is that really true?
Take the Bengals, for example. After losing the Super Bowl following the 2021 season, the team improved in 2022 to 12-4 and looked like contenders again, losing in the conference title game. But then, things fell apart, with the team missing the playoffs in back-to-back years with 9-8 records.
The issue last season? Defense. The offense was among the NFL's best, but the Bengals ranked 25th in scoring defense, which led them to fall to 4-8 at one point before a late-season win streak almost got the team back to then postseason.
Maybe you look at the five-game win streak to end the year and think it's a sign this team has momentum heading into 2025, but let's also remember something else: Joe Burrow was playing out of his mind last season.
Burrow led the NFL in completions, yards and touchdown passes in 2024, and even with all that, the Bengals missed the playoffs. Cincinnati can't expect Burrow to post numbers like that every year, but it also doesn't have a defense built to make up for any drop in Burrow's production, especially with multiple key defenders currently having contract disputes with the franchise.
San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers' window isn't just closing; it might already be shut.
San Fran lost in the Super Bowl after the 2023 season, but a disastrous 2024 saw the team fail to even make the playoffs. Surely that was just a blip on the radar for the Kyle Shanahan-coached franchise, though, right?
I'm not so sure, in large part because the 49ers have made a massive investment in quarterback Brock Purdy.
Purdy's cap hit this season is $9.1 million. Next season, that balloons to $25.8 million and keeps rising from there. It's much harder to build a good team when one player is taking up a huge chunk of the cap. Sacrifices have to be made.
This isn't to say teams can't win with a quarterback making a lot of money! We just saw the Eagles do it last year. The issue here is that I'm still not sold on Purdy being good enough for San Francisco to win with him on a big contract. The team's success in the past with Purdy felt very much like a team effort. It's unclear if this team can get back to the Super Bowl with Purdy no longer on a rookie deal.
Detroit Lions
The Lions weren't supposed to have a Super Bowl window after trading Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff, but Goff's career resurgence in Detroit has led to two double-digit win seasons in a row, including a 15-2 record in 2024.
However, Goff also posted the best marks of his career last year in completion percentage and passing touchdowns. Doing that in his ninth NFL season feels...maybe a little unsustainable? That's not to say Goff is going to fall off a cliff or anything, but it's hard to see a scenario where he improves on his 2024 numbers.
Add in that the Lions have lost two key offensive linemen this offseason and that both the offensive and defensive coordinators left for head coaching jobs and the ground begins to get a little shaky in Detroit. Winning a Super Bowl is like a Jenga tower, and some foundational pieces of that tower have been removed. Will it remain standing?