NFL Divisional Round picks, predictions for every game (Straight-Up and ATS): Ravens-Bills all-timer loading

When you consider that the NFL Divisional Round playoffs means that there are only seven more games remaining this season, it kind of puts everything in perspective. We're in the home stretch and now we have the biggest stakes yet on Saturday and Sunday as conference championship Sunday is just one week away and the Super Bowl not far behind.

There were certainly some surprises in the Wild Card Round. While I might've picked the Packers outright, I certainly didn't see them laying a complete egg against the Eagles. And speaking of eggs, I don't think anyone expected the Chargers to come out as lifeless (or interception happy) as they were in the loss to the Texans. But that has set the stage now for the Divisional Round as the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions, the No. 1 seeds from their respective conferences, now take the field as heavy favorites.

It may not have been our best week in the Wild Card but cheers to getting back in a positive direction this time around. With that, let's dive into our NFL Divisional Round playoffs predictions with picks straight-up and against the spread for each of the four postseason matchups we have on deck.

Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

2024-25 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 169-93 (Last Week: 2-4) | ATS Record: 145-116-1 (Last Week: 3-3)

NFL Divisional Round playoffs predictions: Picks straight-up and ATS for every game

If there's one thing that I tried to take away from Wild Card Weekend, it's that a lot of these teams are heavy favorites because they deserve to be. Maybe that flips on its head, something that Iain MacMillan, Senior Editor of SI Betting, is predicting for both the Texans-Chiefs and Commanders-Lions matchups as he has both heavy underdogs covering, but I'm not bucking that trend, especially based on these matchups.

We have to, just for the vibes, get another upset in the Divisional Round, though, so that's where I'm going with the Rams. Coaching matters in the playoffs more than any time in the regular season, and there isn't a bigger coaching mismatch that we'll see this weekend than Sean McVay, maybe the best coach in the NFL, going up against Nick Sirianni, who might just be a figurehead at this point.

Toughest Divisional Round prediction to make

Ravens (-1.5) at Bills

Every reason that this is the marquee matchup of the Divisional Round are the same reasons why it's extremely difficult to pick. The Bills and Josh Allen simply look unflappable right now, though I would contend their dominance a week ago may have had quite a lot to do with the Broncos. And with the way Buffalo's offense is humming, you have to wonder if an up-and-down Ravens defense could be had, especially on the road in frigid conditions.

At the same time, I can't get the early-season matchup between these two, a game in which Baltimore won 35-10, out of my head. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry leading the way, this is a clear evolution of the Ravens offense and the defense, though not elite, is still good enough to lead the NFL in Net Yards per Play, as Iain MacMillian noted for SI Betting in his preview. The Bills defense feels like it might be a paper tiger, so even on the road, I have to take the Ravens.

Easiest Divisional Round pick on the board

Commanders at Lions (-9.5)

It's probably not wise on my end to call the largest spread of the Divisional Round the easiest pick to make, but here we are. When I look back at the Commanders' last-second win over the Buccaneers, the one thought that I can't escape is that these were two teams that might be a cut below a lot of the postseason field but that just happened to be facing one another in the Wild Card Round.

The Lions are quite clearly a different beast. As they're also getting healthier and closer to full strength, I don't have much faith in a shaky Commanders defense to find enough stops, especially on the road in Detroit. And even if Jayden Daniels has more heroics left to put on display, I'm ultimately just not sure if that's going to be enough to even keep this one close for Washington.