NFL Divisional Round playoffs: Ranking the 4 matchups by upset potential

Filling out an NFL playoff bracket is incredibly challenging. On one hand, you don't want to pick only the favorites to win games because at least one upset will take place in the playoffs. In the Wild Card Round alone, we saw the Houston Texans, Washington Commanders, and Los Angeles Rams, three underdogs, advance to the Divisional Round.

Witnessing upsets is as fun as it gets, but predicting them, especially when some spreads aren't even close, is tough to do.

With that in mind, let's attempt to rank the four Divisional Round matchups based on upset potential, using the Divisional Round odds given by FanDuel Sportsbook.

Here are the spreads for each of the four matchups.

Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

4. The Texans face the toughest Divisional Round challenge

Rex Ryan wasn't the only one who thought that the Los Angeles Chargers would comfortably end the Houston Texans' season. The Texans might've won their division and earned a home playoff game, but they never looked like true Super Bowl contenders in the regular season. They proved all of their doubters wrong by dominating the Chargers in the Wild Card Round.

As great of a win as that was for the Texans, they now have easily the toughest challenge of the Divisional Round. They'll attempt to knock off a Kansas City Chiefs team they've beaten just once in Patrick Mahomes' tenure. That one win came back in 2019. Mahomes has beaten Houston three straight times since, including back in Week 16.

Can the Texans pull off the upset? If their defense plays as well as it did against the Chargers, they'll certainly have a chance. However, the Chiefs are coming off a bye, and rested many of their starters during the final week of the regular season. They're as fresh as a team can possibly be this time of year, have home-field advantage, and are as battle-tested as any team can be. They're eyeing a three-peat. It'd be foolish to count any team out, especially with a defense as good as Houston's, but it'd be stunning to see them actually pull off the upset. There's a reason the spread is as drastic as it is.

3. The Commanders will need another miracle to get past the Lions

The Washington Commanders upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road on what might have been the luckiest doink in NFL history. Their reward for that win is a date on the road against a Detroit Lions team that finished 15-2 in the regular season.

An argument can be made that the Lions are the most well-rounded team in the NFL. Their offense is nothing short of dominant. They led the NFL by averaging 33.2 points per game in the regular season. That was nearly three points more than any other team. They also ranked seventh in points allowed (20.1) despite a myriad of defensive injuries.

The Lions do have some injuries that they're dealing with, but they're also coming off a bye and will have home-field advantage, while the Commanders have to play on a short week.

The Commanders are as fun as any team in the NFL. Jayden Daniels is good enough to keep this game interesting. The Lions are just too good, unfortunately. It took a little bit of luck for Washington to advance this far, to begin with. It'd take an even bigger miracle for them to get past the Lions.

2. The Rams are looking to pull off another upset

The Los Angeles Rams were one of two home underdogs in the Wild Card Round, with the Texans being the other one. They were able to pull off a win (despite playing in a different location), but they will not have that same advantage in the Divisional Round. They'll have to travel across the country on a short week to play against a Philadelphia Eagles team that dominated the Green Bay Packers in the Wild Card Round.

The odds are certainly stacked against them, with the Eagles favored to win by a touchdown, but it does feel like the Rams have somewhat of a legitimate shot to win this game. Matthew Stafford always steps his game up this time of year, and Los Angeles' defense was beyond impressive against the Minnesota Vikings.

Unfortunately, the Eagles have more firepower than the Vikings do. Jalen Hurts can beat you in more ways than Sam Darnold could have, and he's armed with plenty of postseason experience, unlike Darnold. Saquon Barkley played his way into the MVP discussion for a little while, and might have broken the NFL's single-season rushing record had he played in Philadelphia's last regular season game.

The Eagles happen to also have one of the NFL's best offensive lines and a wide receiver that can go toe-to-toe with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Oh yeah, their defense held the Green Bay Packers to just 10 points and intercepted Jordan Love three times in the Wild Card Round, too.

The Rams will always have a chance with Stafford, Sean McVay, their weapons, and surprisingly solid defense, but the Eagles, who will have a boisterous crowd behind them, probably have too much talent for the Rams to overcome, as much as Andrew Wittworth might have attempted to spark a deep playoff run.

1. An argument can be made that the Bills should be favored to beat the Ravens

Of the four games to be played in the Divisional Round, the Buffalo Bills are the underdog that has the best chance by far to pull off the upset, if we can even call it that. The Bills are 1.5-point underdogs, and an argument can be made that they should be favored.

Josh Allen might be the NFL's MVP Award winner, the Bills finished with a better regular season record than the Ravens, and the Bills have home-field advantage. Allen has gone 6-2 as Buffalo's quarterback at home during the playoffs in his career, including a dominant Wild Card Round win against the Denver Broncos.

Whether you believe the Bills should be favored or not, this game feels like the ultimate toss-up. Allen and Lamar Jackson are two of the best quarterbacks in the sport, and are largely responsible for running dominant offenses. Both defenses are underrated and impressed in the Wild Card Round. I don't think anyone would be surprised if the Ravens came to Buffalo and won with how they've been playing, and I don't think anyone would be surprised if the Bills protected home field and advanced to the AFC Championship Game.

Both of these teams are so good, and frankly, it's a bit of a shame that one of them will have to go home as early as the Divisional Round.