NFL Playoff picks, predictions for AFC and NFC Championship Games (Straight-Up and ATS)
Considering that it's conference championship Sunday in the NFL Playoffs with another Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs clash in the AFC Championship Game and with the upstart Washington Commanders trying for another upset in the NFC Championship Game, I feel like I might've somehow missed a week of the postseason or something.
Given how some of our NFL Playoff picks have gone, maybe that's just wishful thinking.
We're still locked into profitability for the season in terms of our ATS record and we're more than 70 games over .500 when it comes to straight-up predictions. At the same time, though, going 1-3 straight-up in the Divisional Round just kind of stings. We're going to get it back this week, though, as I'm feeling like I have the right feel on both the AFC and NFC Championship Games.
So with only two weeks left until Super Bowl LIX, let's get into it with our NFL Playoff predictions for the AFC and NFC Championship Games with picks straight-up and against the spread for both games.
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
2024-25 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 170-96 (Last Week: 1-3) | ATS Record: 147-118-1 (Last Week: 2-2)
NFL Conference Championship playoff predictions: Picks straight-up and ATS for every game
Conf. Championship Game | Straight-Up Pick | ATS Pick |
|---|---|---|
Commanders at Eagles (NFC) | Commanders | Commanders +6.5 |
Bills at Chiefs (AFC) | Chiefs | Chiefs -1.5 |
Though you could call it a small sample size, we've seen at least one sizable upset in every round of the playoffs to this point. I know this is conference championship Sunday but, you know, why would think that wouldn't continue at this point. And there's no better team to consider that for than the Commanders, fresh off of pulling off the biggest upset of the postseason while beating the Lions in Detroit a week ago.
Out in the AFC, though, it's more of the same. We're going to break down both of these games a bit more than this, but the simple truth of the matter is that the Bills-Chiefs rivalry has been incredibly one-sided in the playoffs. The regular season meeting means precisely nothing to me when the lights of the postseason are on and Kansas City will be back in the Super Bowl once again.
Before we get there, though, let's break it down a bit more.
AFC Championship Game pick: Bills at Chiefs (-1.5)
Not to pile on Mark Andrews, but if he could catch a perfectly placed ball, there's a chance that the Bills aren't even playing in this game. And while everyone is quick to say that the refs will gift the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes any win they need, Kansas City is undeniably once again playing their best brand of football in the playoffs while Buffalo still has some troubling signs.
SI Betting Senior Editor Iain MacMillan is on this side with me, and he broke it down masterfully as to why we should be worried about the Bills:
"Not only do the Chiefs play their best in the postseason, but I have a ton of concerns regarding the Bills defense. They have trended in the wrong direction in the second half of the season including ranking 22nd in opponent success rate since Week 10. Even last week, they allowed 7.3 yards per play to the Ravens but managed to force three turnovers which was enough to get them the win.
"Now, they face a Chiefs team that simply doesn’t turn the ball over in big spots. If they give up 7.3 yards per play to Patrick Mahomes, the Bills stand no chance."
The Bills are living to capitalize on mistakes made by the opposing offense or else their defense can find itself in a bad spot. When you contrast that with how safe the Chiefs are with the football and with the strength of the Kansas City defense, how do you not keep rolling with Andy Reid's team?
NFC Championship Game pick: Commanders (+6.5) at Eagles
On paper, this matchup should really favor the Eagles. They are the superior team by most metrics and, even more worrisome for Washington, the Commanders run defense has been in the bottom-half of the league. That would seemingly set up a monster day for Saquon Barkley and the Philadelphia rushing attack.
Yet, Barkley has been dominant pretty much throughout the playoffs to this point and the Eagles have still played two games closer than they should have and one could argue won because of mistakes made by the Packers and Rams. Jayden Daniels, even as a rookie, is on another planet right now and has consistently played heady football all season long. I don't foresee him making the mistakes that Philly has, to their credit, pounced on and thrived because of.
When you then factor in the Jalen Hurts injury that will worry me no matter how fine the Eagles say he is, especially with how pedestrian his performance has been by my estimation, give me the hottest team in the NFL to cover a spread that's ballooned two full points since the opening odds but also give me the Commanders to just win it outright.
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