NFL Playoff Picture: Chiefs in position to cement No. 1 status, but which teams are eliminated?

As the 2024 NFL season inches closer to its end, the playoffs are slowly beginning to take shape. This time of year, the true contenders begin to separate themselves from the rest of the league. Although the early portion of the season is important to stay within reach of a playoff spot, the team that plays the best moving forward will be the one that hoists the Lombardi Trophy at Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans. 

With the league’s expanded schedule and postseason format, some struggling teams have managed to keep hope alive late into the season. Four teams clinched a playoff berth before Sunday, but only two teams have clinched a division title. The remaining six divisions could come down to the wire, but some teams have been hanging onto their postseason hopes by a thread. 

Four other teams entered Week 15 with an opportunity to clinch a playoff spot. The Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Houston Texans could all earn their spot by the end of the week. 

Five of the six late window games feature showdowns against two division teams, and those matches went a long way in determining where teams fall. Here’s where each team currently sits after the afternoon games of Week 15.

AFC Playoff Picture: Only two divisions remain undecided

The AFC’s division races haven’t been nearly as competitive as the NFC’s divisions this season. Entering Week 15, the Buffalo Bills had already clinched the AFC East crown, and the Kansas City Chiefs, who have lost just one game this season, clinched the AFC West for the ninth consecutive season last week.

The Pittsburgh Steelers suffered their fourth loss of the season against the Eagles, but they still clinched a playoff berth with the Indianapolis Colts' loss. After the loss, however, the Baltimore Ravens are threatening to steal away the AFC North title. The abysmal AFC South has been a blessing for the Texans, who entered with a comfortable two-game lead for the fourth seed. Houston’s 20-12 win over the Miami Dolphins helped them clinch the division, which was sealed with the Colts' lose to the Broncos.

The Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos have been impressive this season, but they’re holding onto slim leads for the final two AFC Wild Card spots. The Broncos came out on top in a pivotal game against the Indianapolis Colts, who trailed Denver for the seventh seed by two games. The Broncos had a 72 percent chance to make the playoffs before the victory, but that improved to 91 percent after defeating Indianapolis, per NFL Next Gen Stats. The Chargers, on the other hand, suffered a blowout loss that dropped them below Denver in Wild Card seeding.

NFC Playoff Picture: Vikings, Eagles could clinch a playoff spot 

The NFC has been incredibly competitive, as all four divisions still remain undecided. The Detroit Lions and the Eagles are the only two teams that clinched a playoff spot before Week 15. The Lions have been the league’s most dominant team through 13 games, but they don’t have any margin for error. Philadelphia tied Detroit for the top seed in the conference after the Lions lost to the BIlls. The Minnesota Vikings have the opportunity to create a three-way tie for the top seed in the conference. Detroit would still hold the tiebreaker over both NFC foes, but they no longer have any room to breathe in the race for the NFC's playoff bye.

The Eagles could have clinched the NFC East this week, but the Washington Commanders spoiled that opportunity by defeated the New Orleans Saints. Although the Commanders have the last NFC Wild Card spot, they’re just one game ahead of the Los Angeles Rams. 

The Seattle Seahawks are separating themselves from the murky NFC West, but they only have a 52 percent chance of making the playoffs despite holding the No. 3 seed. They could improve their postseason probability to 70 percent with a win over the Green Bay Packers in Week 15. A loss would bring them into a tie with the Rams, who improved to an 8-5 record with a win over the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers entered their Week 15 matchup the ninth-best record in the conference, but they’ve been fortunate enough to play in the NFC South. The Buccaneers have overtaken the reeling Atlanta Falcons for the division lead, and a blowout win over the Chargers gave them a 70 percent chance of winning the NFC South title.

Minnesota faces the most drastic potential seeding implications among all playoff teams. Depending on how the Lions and Eagles finish the season, the Vikings could end up as the No. 1 seed or the No. 5 seed. Unfortunately, the Vikings don’t control their own fate for the division or the bye week, but they can keep themselves in the race with a win over the Chicago Bears.

The Packers have a better record than any team in the NFC West or NFC South, but their brutal NFC North division has dropped them to the sixth seed. Fortunately, they’re nearly guaranteed to make the playoffs because of their significant lead over opposing NFC Wild Card teams.

Eliminated teams: Cowboys, Bengals manage to survive

Six AFC teams and two NFC teams have already been eliminated from postseason contention. Although the early window of games did not showcase many playoff teams, there were four teams that entered Week 15 under the threat of elimination.

The New York Giants have been eliminated since Week 13, and the Las Vegas Raiders joined them with a loss on Black Friday. The New England Patriots were eliminated in Week 14 after wins by the Chargers and Texans, and the Cleveland Browns were eliminated after suffering a loss against the Steelers.

The Dallas Cowboys kept their hopes alive by eliminating the Carolina Panthers in a 30-14 victory, and the Cincinnati Bengals hung onto their postseason chances with a 37-27 victory over the Tennessee Titans. The Chicago Bears will face the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football, but they will only be playing for pride. Chicago was eliminated by Washington’s win against the Saints.

Three AFC teams and six NFC teams remain alive in the hunt for a playoff spot, albeit barely. The Rams have a playoff probability of 50 percent, the Falcons have a playoff probability of 40 percent and the Colts have a 26 percent chance. None of the remaining six teams have a probability higher than eight percent.

There are just three more weeks remaining in the season. As the schedule dwindles down, teams on the bubble are running out time to find a way into the tournament.