NFL standings by point differential, Week 6: Vikings are winners, NFC South surprise?

We have seen enough, or have we? The first six weeks of the 2024 NFL season are in the books. While some fans are doing cartwheels in the streets over how awesome their teams are, others are looking at that pumpkin patch their significant other desperately wants to go to, and how a cacophony of screaming kids is still far better than the three hours of weekly pain their team causes.

When it comes to understanding the many complexities that come with sports, college or pro, we often say we don't have a large enough of a sample size to reach any real conclusion on anything. Well, isn't a third of the season enough of a sample size to sink one's teeth into? Halloween is approaching, so is your team you love so a full-sized candy bar or candy corn masquerading as one?

Truth be told, I like candy corn. In my 35 years on earth, my food palate has adapted to a wider array of nutricious options. Give me the crust on my sandwich, the vinegar-based condiments on my food and all the fish the nearest sea can provide. Candy corn is fine. Losing your mind over candy corn is what a child does in the checkout line of a grocery store. My NFL team is usually candy corn. It is fine.

Now let's take a look at all eight NFL divisions and see if potential differential really tells us anything.

AFC East

1. Buffalo Bills (4-2): 39 points
2. New York Jets (2-4): 5 points
3. Miami Dolphins (2-3): -53 points
4. New England Patriots (1-5): -60 points

The Buffalo Bills are running away with the division. When the flightless New York Jets are your most worthy adversary, your division is a total cakewalk. For as long as the Miami Dolphins remain rudderless and the New England Patriots cannot reload their muskets, Buffalo will own this division. The only real staggering thing from point different in the AFC East is how bad the Dolphins truly are.

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2): 38 points
2. Baltimore Ravens (4-2): 28 points
3. Cincinnati Bengals (2-4): 5 points
4. Cleveland Browns (1-5): -46 points

Maybe the Pittsburgh Steelers aren't fluky? I still don't trust them, but they do have one of the better point differential in the AFC. The Baltimore Ravens are right where I would expect them to be: Good, but not great. As for the Cincinnati Bengals, they look to be markedly better than the other team from Ohio in the Cleveland Browns. Cincinnati could turn it around here soon, but Cleveland is so cooked.

AFC South

1. Houston Texans (5-1): 8 points
2. Indianapolis Colts (3-3): 0 points
3. Tennessee Titans (1-4): -14 points
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5): -65 points

This may be the worst division in football. Although I am surprised to see the Houston Texans only have a positive 8-point differential, the rest of the division is kind of awful. The Indianapolis Colts are as boring as their differential indicates. Although the Tennessee Titans may just be unlucky, the Jacksonville Jaguars might be one of the worst teams in football. I did not see that coming this year...

AFC West

1. Kansas City Chiefs (5-0): 33 points
2. Los Angeles Chargers (3-2): 25 points
3. Denver Broncos (3-3): 16 points
4. Las Vegas Raiders (2-4): -54 points

Not any real surprises here in the AFC West. If there are any, one would be that the Kansas City Chiefs are only eight points better than the Los Angeles Chargers. It just goes to show that the Chiefs have not been dominant in their five wins like we would expect. The other is gap between the Chargers and the Denver Broncos is nothing, but the gap between the Broncos and the Las Vegas Raiders is wide!

NFC East

1. Washington Commanders (4-2): 33 points
2. Philadelphia Eagles (3-2): -6 points
3. New York Giants (2-4): -25 points
4. Dallas Cowboys (3-3): -42 points

Point differential accurately reflects that the Washington Commanders have been the best team in the NFC East all year long. While seeing the Philadelphia Eagles in the negative is a bit odd, the same cannot be applied to the New York Giants. As for the Dallas Cowboys, it seems as though when they lose, they lose badly. Just look at what happened vs. the Detroit Lions in the late afternoon window.

NFC North

1. Minnesota Vikings (5-0): 63 points
2. Detroit Lions (4-1): 60 points
3. Chicago Bears (4-2): 47 points
4. Green Bay Packers (4-2) 41 points

The NFC North is the best division in football. As the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions beat up on pretty much everyone they play, can we get some division games, please? We have had a grand total of one so far through six weeks. Seeing the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers be 4-2 on the year and plus-40 in point differential is a huge testament to how strong this division may really be.

NFC South

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2): 37 points
2. New Orleans Saints (2-4): 20 points
3. Atlanta Falcons (4-2): 14 points
4. Carolina Panthers (1-5): -100 points

This is the most captivating division by far. The Atlanta Falcons lead it at 4-2 and 3-0 in NFC South play, but rank third in differential at plus-14. While the Tampa Bay Buccaneers having the best differential at plus-37 is not shocking, the fact the New Orleans Saints are still in the positive at plus-20 despite a four-game skid is alarming. As for the Carolina Panthers, 2025 will be here soon enough.

NFC West

1. San Francisco 49ers (3-3): 32 points
2. Seattle Seahawks (3-3): -4 points
3. Arizona Cardinals (2-4): -30 points
4. Los Angeles Rams (1-4): -45 points

Maybe the NFC West won't be as strong as we thought it would be? While the San Francisco 49ers remain the team to beat, they look very beatable. While the Seattle Seahawks have gotten off to a hot start, they have fallen on hard times losing three in a row. Although the Arizona Cardinals are feisty at times, they are not quite there. As for the Los Angeles Rams, they need to hit the reset button already.

Overall, I think this exercise does a pretty good job of identifying what teams are most likely to win their divisions. It is not a perfect correlation, but it is certainly a very positive indicator as to who could come out on top. Of course, these metrics will get even more accurate as the season progresses, as blowout wins and blowout losses will not grossly skew the differential equation.

At the end of the day, you are what your record says you are. That is what will get you to the playoffs.