NFL Week 16 picks, predictions for every game (Straight-Up and ATS): Will Penix save the Falcons?

It's crunch time as we go into NFL Week 16. Granted, only three regular season games makes that obvious but it always feels the most real as a fan whenever we start getting the Saturday games on the slate, which is what the league has to offer this time around. And that's also something that we have to factor into our picks and predictions moving forward as well.

One team clearly knowing that it's crunch time is the Atlanta Falcons. On Tuesday night, they made the brutal decision to bench veteran Kirk Cousins in favor of rookie first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. Cousins, who serves as a stroke of genius by the Minnesota Vikings to let him walk, led the Falcons to a meager 7-7 record and saw them fall behind the Tampa Bay in the NFC South race. The hope in Atlanta is that Penix can right the ship if it's not already too late.

Meanwhile, while the AFC playoff field might be set but the seeding is anything but. Teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, Denver Broncos, and many more are all trying to improve their seeding and make headway down the home stretch. Which will succeed in that plight, though? That's what we're left to decide as we dive into our NFL Week 16 predictions with picks straight-up and against the spread for the full 16-game slate.

Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

2024 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 133-75 (Last Week: 12-4) | ATS Record: 111-97-0 (Last Week: 6-10)

NFL Week 16 predictions: Picks straight-up and ATS for every game

There are a boatload of road favorites this week, which is always an unnerving proposition when making picks. However, I'm less inclined to take the home dog this late in the season in most cases — though it's always a case-by-case proposition — simply based on the fact that we have enough of a sample size and factors at play for there to be a reason that a team is favored despite playing away from home.

Of course, that doesn't mean we're unanimously taking all of those road favorites but it does mean that there might be a few more matchups I'm buying into that for than there would've been prior to NFL Week 16.

Toughest NFL Week 16 predictions to make

Patriots (+14.5) at Bills

I have full confidence in the Bills winning this game. The Patriots defense has been in shambles for the past few weeks, which doesn't look great for Jerod Mayo, while Josh Allen is cementing his MVP case with a torrid run of late. At the same time, though, the Bills have needed every single drop of effort that Allen and the offense have given to the cause recently because the defense in Buffalo has been a bit too saloon door-ish.

So the question then becomes, specifically against the spread, if you think that the Patriots lack of talent is enough to allow the Bills to win by more than two full touchdowns. While I'm not wholeheartedly behind that, I do still have enough faith in the flashes we've seen from Drake Maye and this New England offense to think they can keep things semi-respectable — even if it's entirely in backdoor fashion.

Steelers (+6.5) at Ravens

Even if George Pickens returns this week for the Steelers, it's still felt like the rival Ravens are playing the better brand of football between the two of late. But what makes this exceptionally tough is that Mike Tomlin and Co. have simply had the number of Lamar Jackson and Baltimore. The Ravens come into this game with just one win in their last nine tries against their AFC North rivals.

So what gives in this game? Ultimately, I have to split it down the middle when it comes to the picks for NFL Week 16, taking the Ravens to win but the Steelers to cover as the underdog. The way Jackson has performed of late, particularly as a passer, could cause the Pittsburgh secondary some real fits but I think Russell Wilson and Pickens will find enough against a suspect Baltimore defensive back group to keep this one close, as these games always tend to be.

Easiest NFL Week 16 pick on the board

Giants at Falcons (-7.5)

Frankly, I have no idea what exactly we're going to see from the Falcons offense with Michael Penix Jr. in the fray. He's played extremely limited snaps thus far, though his time at Washington suggests we'll see a hefty dose of play-action throughout this matchup. But the most important thing that goes into this prediction for Week 16 is that the New York Giants are — apologies for the bluntness — objectively awful.

Drew Lock is set to return for this game but let's not forget how rough his last start was before he got injured. The offense has largely been stagnant and even the Atlanta defense should be able to pull out enough to slow them down. So if Penix can objectively do anything positive and limit his mistakes, it's hard to see a world wherein the Falcons aren't able to stretch this thing out to a double-digit victory, especially when Atlanta needs to reset the vibes in the worst way right now.