3 NFL Week 6 overreactions that will hold true, 3 that are utterly false
By John Buhler
Although there are going to be plenty of things to overreact from after Monday Night Football between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets, the rest of the Week 6 NFL slate has provided us some delicious and grandiose proclamations. Some of these mid-season claims will prove to be true, while others could be unraveled in the matter of a week. The point is we have them and must dissect!
Through the first six weeks of the season, we have enough of a sample size to make perhaps even more calculated claims when it comes to Overreaction Monday. These are the type of conversations you and your colleagues might be having at the water cooler in the middle of October. Of course, all it takes is a week, or a fortnight in some instances, for these narratives deemed as gospel can change.
So what I am going to do today is outline six overreactions from the weekend that was. Three will probably end up being true by the end of the season, while three others will probably prove to be untrue in short order. Since you and I and everyone not named Nostradamus cannot predict the future, it is why live sports are the best form of entertainment. Anything and everything can happen.
Let's start with me obviously peacocking for my emerging juggernaut football from the Dirty South.
True: Atlanta Falcons are going to win NFC South quite comfortably now
While nobody outside of Atlanta, Charlotte, New Orleans or Tampa seemed to care about this late afternoon kick from the Queen City, I saw something out of my beloved Atlanta Falcons that should hold true. Atlanta is 4-2 on the year, 4-0 in NFC play and most importantly, 3-0 in NFC South games with a head-to-head win over its three divisional rivals. This is how you win your division comfortably.
This was the first game of the season where Atlanta won decidedly and comfortably. Their five previous games were all decided by one possession. Atlanta got the best of Philadelphia, New Orleans and Tampa Bay, but came up short vs. Pittsburgh and Kansas City. What I am getting at is Atlanta is already showing an innate ability to win in multiple ways under this new coaching staff.
Carolina may already be out of it, as I will touch on the Panthers momentarily. The Saints are in a complete tailspin at 2-4 after a 2-0 start. Tampa Bay is the biggest threat in the division to Atlanta. The Buccaneers may have an identical record to the Falcons, but do not have the head-to-head tiebreaker working in their favor. Tampa Bay also plays a slightly harder schedule this NFL season.
Whoever comes out of the NFC South between Atlanta and Tampa Bay can get to New Orleans.
False: Baltimore Ravens are Kansas City Chiefs' biggest AFC threat
There are two teams in the AFC I am so unbelievably tired of. That would be the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens. They are good, but they are not great. More importantly, I do not trust them in games that count vs. Kansas City. While Buffalo will be able to navigate an AFC East that is collapsing before our eyes, let's not crown Baltimore as the biggest threat to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC.
Outside of Cleveland, we would be foolish to cross off the Ravens' two other divisional rivals in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh just yet. I would still take Baltimore to win the division on consistency alone, but even that doesn't really do it for me when it comes to identifying the Chiefs' most formidable challenger. I like the Houston Texans far more than Baltimore to emerge as that team in the AFC.
If I had to pick a team besides Houston to emerge as the Chiefs' most formidable challenger, I would honestly take Buffalo over Baltimore. This is because I trust Josh Allen to separate and elevate in a critical playoff game more than Lamar Jackson. Buffalo's problem is its head coach, whereas I get the feeling there is a mental block with Jackson and the Ravens offense when it is a minute to midnight.
Kansas City is the team to beat in the AFC, but I remain totally skeptical that Baltimore will beat them.
True: Mike McCarthy is not going to make it through the season in Dallas
There are sad bags of crap, and then there is Mike McCarthy's Dallas Cowboys. In FOX's NFC Game of the Week, Dan Campbell beat his other former team of note to a bloody pulp for most of the country to see. The Detroit Lions are looking like the best team in the NFC again, although some folks in the Twin Cities would beg to differ. That was a hellacious beatdown Detroit put forth on Dallas in Week 6.
It may have been indoors, but McCarthy looked like a buffoon in the rain, which is one of the biggest insults a can give to a grown-ass man. It is over. Dak Prescott is never going to get this team to the promised land. The Cowboys are never going to be anything more than a glorified hype machine for as long as Jerry Jones has a breath in his body. This team is decadent and honestly, quite boring.
Jones hired McCarthy because he wanted a patsy to control. Five or so years later, you might have been better served clapping hands with The Clapper Jason Garrett for another decade. The coaches can change and so can the players, but nobody lives in the 1990s more than The Joneses. Why bother keeping up with them when they are still using a CD to help them download some internet?
McCarthy has no business coaching this team beyond this season. He may not make it to Week 18.
False: Carolina Panthers need to start Bryce Young for the rest of season
At 1-5, the Carolina Panthers are tied with Cleveland, Jacksonville and New England for the worst record in football through six weeks. While you were busy watching Dan Campbell stuff Mike McCarthy into a locker before lighting him on fire, there was something interesting going on in Charlotte. While my Atlanta Falcons look like a playoff team, Carolina is feisty with Andy Dalton.
Upon first glance, people are going to want Dave Canales to go back to Bryce Young as the starting quarterback. That would be premature for the first-time head coach to do. Since making the switch to Dalton, the Panthers look like a competent, but rebuilding football team. This is why I was a big fan of David Tepper hiring Canales away from the rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be their next head coach.
Dalton may have thrown two picks late in the game, but he was looking as good as he ever was running this offense. It may be a lost season in terms of wins and losses, but there are positives to be had with this team if they continue to start Dalton. The last thing Carolina needs to do is completely ruin Young before he has a chance to learn from a former Pro Bowler and a professional in Dalton.
When the Panthers are mathematically eliminated, then I think it is time to make the switch back.
True: Cleveland Browns will be drafting a quarterback inside of the top 10
It is over. It doesn't matter if Deshaun Watson is still on the Cleveland Browns payroll for this year, next year or even the rest of time. He is the worst thing to happen to the franchise at the quarterback position, and this is a team that once drafted Johnny Manziel in the first round! If Jimmy Haslam is forcing Kevin Stefanski to start this no good, very bad quarterback, then he should resign yesterday.
The feels like an impossible spot for the Browns. Watson provides this offense no juice. This was a team that made the playoffs a year ago with Joe Flacco starting games for them. Cleveland should win with defense. The roster is built to do so. However, when the head of the offense is resembling a rotting Alaskan fish head buried in someone else's yard, nobody is going to take your team seriously.
What I would do if I were Haslam is I would admit defeat on Watson and tell Stefanksi that he and general manager Andrew Berry can draft whoever they want inside the top 5 of the NFL Draft. There are as many as five first-round quarterbacks to be had. From Carson Beck, to Quinn Ewers, to Shedeur Sanders, to Jalen Milroe, to Cam Ward, all of whom are better long-term fits than Watson.
For as long as Watson is forced to be their starter, the Browns will remain a bottom-tier NFL team.
False: All 4 NFC North teams are going to make the playoffs this season
Right now, all four teams in the NFC North are 4-2 or better on the season and very much alive to make the NFC playoffs. The Minnesota Vikings are undefeated. The Detroit Lions just blew out the Dallas Cowboys. As for the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears, they are both 4-2. Through Week 6, Minnesota, Detroit and Green Bay would make the playoffs, while Chicago is just outside at No. 8.
Even though I can see scenarios in which the NFC East and NFC West only get their division champions in, I think that the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers would both get in before we got all four teams from the NFC North in. This is because the NFC North teams have to play each other, and therefore, will beat each other up. Two will get in, possibly three, but definitely not four.
As far as crossing a team off in the NFC North, I'm not crossing Detroit off until they are mathematically eliminated from contention. The Lions won't be, but you get the point. I may not be a believer in Minnesota, but the Vikings haven't lost a game yet. And if I had to pick a team between Chicago and Green Bay, I would say the Bears because of its coaching staff, but that is not by much.
If the NFC North only gets two teams into the playoffs, it is Detroit and Minnesota, and not Green Bay.