NFL Week 6 picks, predictions for every game (Straight-Up and ATS): Commanders disrespected

It's been a phenomenally entertaining start to the 2024 NFL season thus far but, in a very real way at the same time, it's also felt like each week has made it more difficult to make our NFL picks and predictions. And our Week 6 picks are definitely not an exception to that. In fact, I would venture to say that this is the toughest group of predictions to make yet this year.

Perhaps that's a little bit of lost confidence after the return to the NFL picks didn't go the hottest. We were an even 7-7 straight-up last week but a 6-8 week ATS dipped us below .500 for the first time in 2024, which I'm frankly not taking that well after a great start to the year.

It's also because our NFL Week 6 picks include games like the stumbling San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks not just playing one another but doing so on Thursday while we also have the surging Chicago Bears playing in London against the Jacksonville Jaguars (who have always seemed to own an edge across the pond), the rebounding Baltimore Ravens hosting the hot Washington Commanders, and even Drake Maye taking over at QB for the New England Patriots — but against the Houston Texans.

But hey, this is what we have to do and we're not quitters (even if we might be just a bit scared). With that, let's jump right into our picks and predictions for every NFL Week 6 game both straight-up and ATS.

Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

2024 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 33-29 | ATS Record: 30-32-0

NFL Week 6 predictions: Picks straight-up and ATS for every game

Teams on bye in Week 6: Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings.

So. Many. Road. Favorites. It's hard not to find some of that tricky when going through the Week 6 slate and it ultimately leaves you looking at the board and wondering if you're trusting the proper road favorites or not.

The other big trend that we've seen is that the heaviest favorites of each week have not only failed to cover almost every time this season but have even outright lost half of the games. The exact numbers are that favorites of 5.5 points or more this season are 5-19-1 ATS and have lost outright 13 times on the field. That's staggering and something I tried to balance with the predictions this week, for better or worse, because that trend is (at least somewhat) going to regress a bit before the end of the season.

Toughest NFL Week 6 predictions to make

Commanders (+6.5) at Ravens

Given how powerful the Ravens looked in their comeback win over the Bengals last week, I would understand this team being a heavy favorite over just about anyone. However, the Commanders piece in this just makes it that much more complicated. Washington hasn't been playing a murderer's row of competition but they also put up 38 points and won against Cincy and blew out the Cardinals while also trouncing the Browns last week.

It's probably the coward's way out but I went with the Ravens to win but the Commanders to cover a shockingly big numbers. Oddsmakers installing Baltimore as such a heavy favorite tells you a lot in a game like this, so I do like giving them the benefit of the doubt. But I've grow to respect Jayden Daniels and Washington a bit too much to think they're going to lose by a full touchdown or more with how well they've been playing.

Lions (-3) at Cowboys

Especially with the Lions looking like a death machine prior to their bye against the Seahawks, this might not seem like a tough one to make. But putting Dan Campbell's team on the road against a Cowboys team that might sneakily be one of the hardest teams to prognosticate for week-to-week is truly a brutal spot to be making picks in.

At the end of the day, though, I came down on Detroit's side both straight-up and ATS. This team has been trending harder in a positive direction and also simply has a coaching staff I trust far more. When you then throw in the mounting injuries for the Cowboys, I think this would have to be the Lions as the prediction — though my actual betting advice would be stay the hell away from it.

Easiest NFL Week 6 pick on the board

Buccaneers (-3.5) at Saints

While calling a road favorite in a divisional game doesn't give me all of the warm and fuzzies that I'd like, my football brain tells me that this is about as simple as it gets for one key reason. Sure, I do trust Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers offense to put up some points in this one as the Saints defense has been a bit shakier in the past couple of weeks. It's really the other side of the ball where I see the edge, though.

Derek Carr is set to miss this game and perhaps a couple more thereafter with an oblique injury. That means either Jake Haener, who I don't believe is an NFL-caliber quarterback, or Spencer Rattler, a rookie with some upside but who surely isn't ready just yet, will make the start against Todd Bowles' defense in this one. I expect the Bucs head coach to have whoever the opposing quarterback is in a blender for this one, which will be enough to get the win and the cover.