The NFL Draft is almost here, and there are no bigger moments on the league calendar, short of the hours before Week 1, where a team comes out and thinks they are ready to take on the world. Every team thinks they crushed the draft. They are excited about the players they get to add, and it’s a fresh start for so many. Even if a team “reaches” for a player way before they were projected, fans will do their best to talk themselves into it.
As analysts, we look at the projections and facts surrounding the pick and understand when an unnecessary risk was taken. Sometimes, a risk works out. Much of the 2021 NFL Draft was a risk because of the COVID year, but we got Ja’Marr Chase, Micah Parsons, Penei Sewell, Patrick Surtain, Creed Humphrey, and Nico Collins. We also got possibly the worst QB potential-to-outcomes ratio in the history of the league.
Going into the draft this season, there are some red flags we need to understand. Red flags aren’t automatically leading to a bad players. Sometimes it’s just something extra to overcome to find a superstar. These 10 players aren’t that. These 10 players are scary because their red flags could make their draft position get some decision-makers fired.
1. David Bailey, Texas Tech Red Raiders
This one is coming with some rumors that David Bailey could be the New York Jets’ pick over Arvell Reese. Reese seems to be the special defensive player in this class. He’s the supreme pass rusher who can dominate opposing offenses. Yet, there are rumors that the Jets are considering taking Texas Tech pass rusher David Bailey.
Bailey could be a great player, but where the regret lies with with the “what if” that comes with leaving Reese on the table. Think about when the Jacksonville Jaguars took Travon Walker over Aidan Hutchinson. Walker is a good player who might be very good one day. Hutchinson has already proven to be a game wrecker.
We feel bad for the Jets. They were poised to take their quarterback of the future in Dante Moore, but he inexplicably returned to school. Now, they have to make a decision on defense and push the QB decision another year, possibly ending up with the same player they thought they were getting this season. Still, there’s an obvious pick here, and there’s a possibility they could ignore it for the “what if.”
2. Carnell Tate, Ohio State Buckeyes
There is a high possibility that a superstar wide receiver exists in this draft. If you know who that might be, you might be a million-dollar scout. There are about five wide receivers who are all over the board, but the consensus is that Carnell Tate is the top receiver in this class. We’re slightly worried about that because of the offensive structure at Ohio State.
Tate was able to play alongside Jeremiah Smith, one of the best wide receiver prospects in the history of college football. He’s “look ahead at next year’s draft” level of special. This is how we treated Ja’Marr Chase in 2021. Smith could be even better than Chase at the next level.
Yet, this year, his backup is going to be the first wide receiver off the board. Tate is a really good player in college. Tate has the ideal size and great speed, so he’s definitely talented enough to fit at the next level. How will he handle being the top guy against the best athletes in the world? That’s where our concern lies. Can the Ohio State product play at the level that garners a top-five pick, if he ends up going that high? His talent says he should, but talent doesn't always translate.
3. Jermod McCoy, Tennessee Volunteers
We’re just really worried about drafting a player as high as many believe Jermod McCoy might go coming off an entire missed season. McCoy missed Tennessee’s season after tearing his ACL last offseason. There are a few issues here. For one, he was injured in January and didn’t return to college. Maybe that was because Tennessee didn’t have the same season they had before, which McCoy’s injury didn’t help.
However, what if he didn’t return because he couldn’t return? What if the knee injury had bigger issues than we believed? There is speculation that this could be a degenerative knee issue. It doesn’t matter what kind of talent McCoy might be if he can’t stay on the field. Say it with us folks: the best ability is availability.
Injury here is your biggest risk. If he stays healthy, then he should be a very good cornerback, but he might be the biggest injury risk in the draft. At this position, where twisting and turning is essential to your job performance, this might not be worth the risk in the first round. It seems almost impossible that a team wouldn’t draft McCoy in the first round, but we could see him falling.
4. Denzel Boston, Washington Huskies
The adjectives we’re hearing from Denzel Washington sound likes what would happen if artificial intelligence told you what a wide receiver should be. He’s “long-framed” and an “inside/out receiver.” He definitely has good hands, but he only took in 62 receptions this season. That’s fewer than he had last season. His numbers are concerning, but Washington was messy last season.
Boston’s biggest detriment going to the next level is his speed. He’s never been considered a burner, making his hands about his only superstar ability. It didn’t help that he chose not to run the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine or the Washington Pro Day. This was apparently coming from the advice of his agent, which makes us think the player is slower than we even think.
Despite his size, there are just safer options with a higher ceiling. That’s a double whammy against Boston. He seems to have a limited ceiling because of his speed and size. Will he be a DeAndre Hopkins type? That would be the absolute top of what he could be, but that’s asking a lot from the Huskies product. What you’re really trying to avoid is a repeat of Kevin White. That would be a real botch.
5. Eli Stowers, Vanderbilt Commodores
The tight end class is really interesting, but outside of Kendrick Sadiq, there isn’t a sure thing. After him, it’s anyone’s guess. Max Klare, Justin Joly, and Sam Rousch are in that second tier, but at the top of the tier seems to be Eli Stowers. That’s where we start to worry.
Stowers will have issues with the blocking portion of being a tight end, but he’ll also would be a problematic slot receiver. He has skills, but the holes in his game could lead to mistakes at the worst time. Some coaches will look at him and think they can fix him, especially on the blocking side. He truly tries, which says more about him than other receiving tight ends. However, his technique is well behind probably everyone else in this class.
For a tight end that has issues blocking, the rest of the package has to be perfect. It’s not. His route running leaves something to be desired, but that can be worked on. The real issue is that the wrong coach will have serious issues finding the right spot for him in the offense. That’s too big a risk to trust.
6. Cole Payton, North Dakota State
We are starting to get really concerned that teams are talking themselves into Cole Payton as the quarterback to take after Ty Simpson. He is not the third best quarterback in this class. Usually, when a player is coming into the draft from a smaller school, it’s a case of missed opportunity and underlying talent. We’re just not seeing that with Payton.
He has real issues with his mechanics that could be built into his throwing motion. There’s a wonkiness that doesn’t just solve itself. We’d be very surprised if a team drafts Payton with the thought he could be the quarterback today, but there are serious issues that might not be worth taking a risk.
A team like the Arizona Cardinals could talk themselves into Payton to get them through the season. Payton has one season as a starter, and we admit, it was great. He was a Walter Payton Award finalist and an FCS All-American. It was pretty great! Unfortunately, he won’t be able to hide his flaws at the NFL level like he can at the FCS level. There is so much left for Payton to be a long-term starter, and he's turning 24 years old during the season.
7. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Toledo Rockets
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren is a safety out of Toledo that is going to go in the second round. There are so many parts of that sentence that we don’t like. It’s fine to take a chance on a position like safety when the player is special like Caleb Downs or it’s later in the draft, but using a second-round pick on a safety from Toledo has risk written all over it. McNeil-Warren has some real talent, running a 4.5 40-yard dask and has started games in each of the past four seasons.
However, he hasn’t been the main starter for most of his career. He was a spot starter up until this most previous season, and he even had one game where he didn’t start despite being one of the best in the country at his position. Where he started to lose people was in man coverage. He was missing that top end speed to make up for the speed he was facing.
He’s missing a few things that, any of which could ruin his development. He’s a little too slight. He’s a little too slow. There are mechanics that could use a little work. It’s death by a thousand cuts with his skill set.
8. Jadarian Price, Notre Dame Fighting Irish
There is one player in the draft that has more people talking than anyone. Jeremiyah Love could go anywhere outside of first overall. Many consider him a special running back prospect that could go in the top five of the draft. He is expected to dominate right away. There are always running backs who are going to be really good right off the bat. Quinshon Judkins was really good at times after he was drafted in the second round. So was TreVeyon Henderson, who played in the Super Bowl this season.
Possibly the only running back taken in the second round this year could be Love’s backup. Jadarian Price is getting major buzz as the second best back in this class. It wasn’t like Price didn’t play at all. He averaged six yards per carry and scored 11 touchdowns. His numbers were silly, but it might have to do with how defenses treated him.
Can he carry the load for a team when he hasn’t rushed for more than 120 times since 2022, when he was in high school? That’s a question that cannot be answered until he’s drafted. That’s a risk not worth taking, in our opinion.
9. Carson Beck, Miami Hurricanes
We don’t know where to start with the issues surrounding Carson Beck. Based on how he played, one would think he’d go high in the draft. He brought the Miami Hurricanes all the way to the National Championship Game, but we quickly forget that most analysts didn’t even want them in the College Football Playoff, in the first place. They wanted Notre Dame in that position, instead.
Where we’re seriously worried is when he’s under pressure. Both on the field and off of it, we’re curious if Beck has the gumption to be a starting quarterback at the next level. When other teams start to hit him, his games drops multiple levels. He was kept clean for most of his college career, so there’s that, but that can’t be guaranteed in the NFL.
Where we have real issues here is that Beck, with nothing new about his development or his status as a prospect, is rising up draft boards. Our concern is that this has to do with a lack of quarterback talent over his actual talent. We’d much rather take a chance on a skill player or a defensive star over Beck when Drew Allar and Garrett Nussmeier in later rounds.
10. Skyler Bell, UConn Huskies
Skyler Bell has some strange statistics that will really impact his draft evaluation. The number that sticks out to us is the insane drop in per-reception production In 2024, Bell had more than 17 yards per reception. This past season, he had 12 yards per reception. What was the reason for that? The obvious part he was in a less explosie offense. The other might be something was hampering him.
There’s inconsistencies to Bell’s game that should worry whatever team he ends up on. His statistics look like a player who is getting better with age, but look beyond the numbers. He broke 100 receptions and 1,200 yards on the season. That’s good! We’re not denying that, but why did he appear to go from as explosive as anyone to a true quantity receiver?
Bell has a lot of qualities to like in a receiver, but he might be missing those top-end talents. That’s how he ended up at UConn. His routes could use work, and he wasn’t able to put his skills to the test against top competition. Bell feels like he’s going to make a team regret the moment they started their relationship.
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