Why these 2026 NFL Draft prospects are most likely to be busts

The NFL Draft is the most anticipated football event of the offseason, and for good reason: Every team has an opportunity to pick up a Week 1 playmaker who could alter the direction of the franchise for years to come. Hope springs eternal.

But the flip side of that hope is risk — namely, the risk that a given prospect will only last through their rookie contract before being sent on their way as the next class takes a shot at greatness. Busts come for every draft, and while the majority usually come on Day 2 and 3, a wide-open class like this feels like more of a minefield than usual.

Which players should you be hoping your team avoids, especially early, come draft weekend? While this is much more art than science, we can make some educated guesses.

CB Jermod McCoy, Tennessee

The No. 2 cornerback prospect in the draft on most big boards missed the entire 2025 season with a torn ACL. NFL teams are basing their decisions mostly on his 2024 tape and his limited performance at this year's Combine. Those numbers will only get you so far, though, which means taking him in the first round — where he's projected to be taken, likely somewhere in the teens — comes with great risk.

Now, he could totally prove haters wrong and still be one of the best defenders in his class; he was that good at Tennessee two years ago. But not playing for an entire year before entering the NFL doesn't typically work out well. Whichever team decides to take him will have great confidence in his previously demonstrated abilities, even if there may be a slight delay in his adaptation to the pros.

OT Monroe Freeling, Georgia

The Bulldog product is the second-best offensive tackle in this draft, at least ccording to ESPN's rankings, and his stock is skyrocketing as the weekend approaches — at this point, it would be a surprise if he lasts into the second half of the first round. He owns an imposing six-foot-seven, 315-pound frame, but has been described as a player who plants his feet upon contact and gets beaten around the edge. Teams will probably look past that and consider it a coachable aspect of his game, but that could be a long-term detriment.

Freeling also only has 17 college starts under his belt. Typically that could be a significant negative on his resume, but playing for a top program in the SEC should earn him the benefit of the doubt. That being said, having to take time to develop into an elite blocker as a first-round pick may put him in a position where the team expects faster results than he can deliver — and his athleticism, while enticing, also belies a frame that still needs to fill out some to become a truly top-tier tackle.

WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State

By now, we've all heard about the injury concerns. Tyson has had to deal with three serious ailments over three years, but he's attempted to disprove his detractors by working out for teams at his Pro Day in Tempe. Over half of the league witnessed his explosiveness and strength in person, but that hasn't changed the reality that he's going to have to prove himself once he's taken in the first round — missing most of your final year in college with not one but two hamstring injuries will do that.

Depending on where he lands, Tyson will enter the league with sky-high expectations as a WR1 right away. If he isn't, he'll end up like previous Sun Devil stars like N'Keal Harry that wound up going from first-rounder to obscurity. That fear could see him drop behind others like Makai Lemon and Carnell Tate in the selection process.

QB Ty Simpson, Alabama

I feel kind of badly for Simpson: It's not his fault the QB class this cycle is the thinnest it's been in years. There are plenty of QB-needy teams out there, but it's obvious that none of them want to spend a first-round or even a second-round pick on a guy not named Fernando Mendoza. You could argue that's lowered expectations for the Alabama product, but even so, if he's picked as the second passer out of this class, then he's being taken as someone who should hopefully develop into a starter in time.

That could lead to disappointment for teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets, both of which are looking to trial passers that could start for the foreseeable future. All that said, both teams are probably looking to 2027 and that stacked draft class instead. Simpson looks like a guy who will be taken high by default and clearly cannot deliver the level of play teams will need.

QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana

Speaking of Mendoza, there's obvious concern surrounding all but the most slam-dunk first overall picks. He's going to have to deliver an elite level of play for the Las Vegas Raiders that the team hasn't seen since Derek Carr (and that might actually be lowering the bar a bit). Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy, yes, but it was a pretty weak class outside Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love. The Hoosier QB hasn't been under much scrutiny this spring because his selection is considered a foregone conclusion.

Mendoza will be expected to lift the Raiders out of their poverty position immediately, and that's not necessarily realistic. Lest we forget the debacle that was JaMarcus Russell — the last player taken first overall by the Raiders. It may also be a foregone conclusion that Mendoza will never meet the lofty expectations the team and fans set for him. That's not a knock on his talent, but simply a consequence of the position he's in as a good but hardly elite QB prospect. If he's more Jared Goff than Justin Herbert, is that good enough?

LB Jacob Rodriguez, Texas Tech

The Red Raider product is considered the No. 5 overall player at his position but isn't expected to be taken until midway through the second round. Rodriquez is a top-50 talent across the board, and will be a solid addition to any team he joins.

That being said, there are plenty of concerns that could complete the circle of criticism his game received late last year. Rodriguez's six-foot-one, 231-pound frame is solid, but noted to be underwhelming in the face of NFL-sized offensive linemen. On top of that, his tape showed some instances of busted coverage which will limit his appeal to defensive coordinators looking for versatile defenders. If he can't dominate in both facets — run and pass — he could quickly become a journeyman as a one-dimensional fix.

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