Last season, the NFL MVP came down to Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. The two superstar quarterbacks dominated the league and helped with an arms race at the top of the AFC. Allen won the race, taking 27 first-place votes. Jackson got the other 22 votes. There was no other player in the league who got a first-place vote.
Nine of the 11 players who received any votes were quarterbacks. Baker Mayfield got a vote, but Derrick Henry and his 1,921 yards and league-leading 16 touchdowns got zero votes. The only non-QBs to get votes last season were Saquon Barkley and Ja’Marr Chase.
However, this year, the narrative is changing. Now that Allen got his MVP, there are no more quarterbacks who are “due.” Patrick Mahomes is no longer putting up crazy statistics and is only focused on the win column. Jackson has had his share of MVPs, and there will be a little fatigue there. Allen would have to do something insane to win the award in back-to-back years.
This should open the door for a non-quarterback to win the award. But who could take it this year when the opportunity arises?
1. Saquon Barkley
Philadelphia Eagles
With Allen and Jackson as 1-2 in the MVP odds, number three was actually a running back. Saquon Barkley was amazing in his first season with the Philadelphia Eagles. Honestly, amazing doesn’t do it justice. He rushed for more than 2,000 yards and added another 278 yards receiving. He would have broken the rushing record if he decided to play in Week 18.
Barkley went on to help the Eagles to a dominant Super Bowl victory. He is on the cover of Madden, and the world is giving him his flowers. After signing with the Eagles, Barkley was the perfect complement to that franchise.
There are two things in Barkley’s way this season. For one, he rushed a TON last season. Running backs who rush more than 300 times in a season often fall off the next season. On top of that, Barkley is really testing the Madden Curse. It’s not like Barkley doesn’t have his share of injuries in the past.
The other issue is that this Eagles team is once again stacked. Who’s to say that Super Bowl MVP Jalen Hurts won’t take the award from him? Or maybe A.J. Brown breaks records as a receiver? Does Devante Smith do something crazy? Will the defense dominate? All this will hurt Barkley’s case.
2. Justin Jefferson
Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings are an interesting team this season. They are coming off a massive season, but there were big changes. Most importantly, they let Sam Darnold go and opted not to sign or trade for another veteran. They are moving forward with J.J. McCarthy as their starting quarterback.
If the Vikings offense is going to do well this season, it will be thanks to Justin Jefferson. The top wide receiver in the league now has his best chance to show his importance, or as some say it, value. If the Vikings win the NFC North or even if they get to double-digit wins again, Jefferson shows he can carry a team.
Jefferson is also going to be the only weapon at his position to start the season. Jordan Addison was suspended for three games for a substance abuse violation. This gives another opportunity for Jefferson to dominate. If the Vikings come out of that 3-0, it could mean Jefferson is on the fast track to the MVP.
3. Aidan Hutchinson
Detroit Lions
There are so many offensive weapons on the Detroit Lions, and with Ben Johnson now coaching in Chicago, there are some question marks about how they are all going to perform. Jahmyr Gibbs is a superstar at the position and might become the best running back in the sport this year. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a super-duper star at wide receiver. Jameson Williams is expected to take two steps forward. Sam LaPorta is even a great tight end. That’s not even adding the impact Jared Goff has.
So, defense is probably the Lions’ best chance to win MVP. Hear us out. The offense is always going to take credit from different members of this unit. However, on the defensive side, Aidan Hutchinson is the star, and nobody else really comes close.
Hutchinson was on an insane run before his injury last season. He’s expected to be fully healthy to start this season, and if he follows up with the performance from last year, he should easily lead the league in sacks. He was on pace for 25.5 sacks last season. If Hutchinson is able to break the sacks record on a team that gets the number-one seed in the NFC, it would be hard not to give him some love for the MVP.
4. Christian McCaffrey
San Francisco 49ers
Coming into last season, Christian McCaffrey would have been at the top of this list. Unfortunately, he did the same thing that Barkley did this season. He was on the cover of Madden after a high workload despite his injury history, and there was no surprise that he got hurt for most of the year.
CMC is now coming into the 2025 season fully healthy and ready to dominate again. The San Francisco 49ers are not the top contender they were in 2023 and expected to be in 2024. Some believe they aren’t even likely to make the playoffs. They did a number on this offense, trading away Deebo Samuel and now waiting for Brandon Aiyuk to return from injury.
McCaffrey is going to be the biggest piece of this offense, and if they make the playoffs, it will largely be because he returned and was just as impactful as 2023. This will be a huge year for CMC if he can just stay healthy, and if the 49ers are that impactful, then he will be in the MVP race. Could he once again put together 2,200 scrimmage yards and 20 touchdowns, it would be hard to say he’s not the MVP.
5. Micah Parsons
Dallas Cowboys
There is a ton of chatter surrounding the Dallas Cowboys right now. A documentary coming out on Netflix talking about the drama around the last great version of this team has us talking about the Cowboys as a whole, but it’s more than that. The biggest storyline following Big D is Micah Parsons.
The Cowboys owner and GM Jerry Jones has been vocal about what he’s expecting from the Parsons’ contract extension talks. Unfortunately, he’s asking him to go into it without an agent, which Parsons is not looking to do. As we are just a few weeks from the season, Parsons is looking to get this solved.
If after all this drama, Parsons puts together his best season, we could see voters giving him some MVP love. We’ve only seen one defensive player win the MVP, and it was Lawrence Taylor, the best player to ever play defense. Can Parsons match him?
To do this, Parsons would need to put together a historic season. He’s more than capable of that. On top of that, the Cowboys would need to be a top seed in the NFC. Could that happen? As unlikely as it seems right now, that makes it so much better for this argument. If Parsons gets 20+ sacks and the Cowboys are a top-three seed in the NFC, we can see this happening.
6. Tyreek Hill
Miami Dolphins
Speaking of strange expectations, the Miami Dolphins are not considered a top team in the league. That’s actually an understatement. Most expect the Dolphins to bottom out, the coaching staff to get the boot, the team to restart all the progress they’ve made towards contention, and the Patriots and Jets to pass them in the standings.
What if none of that happens? What if the Dolphins are a contending team? How could that happen?
Tyreek Hill is how that could happen. He’s getting older, but there is nothing showing that he has lost a step. Last season wasn’t his best, but there was a bad vibe in Miami. However, we’ve seen that be a one-year thing in the past.
Hill was in the top 10 of MVP voting in both 2022 and 2023. If he comes back with a vengeance in 2025, why wouldn’t the voters give him some love? How good would he have to be to get a lot of love? If he hits 1,800 receiving yards and more than 15 touchdowns, would that be enough? That’s definitely not out of the question.
7. Bijan Robinson
Atlanta Falcons
Bijan Robinson might be one of the best players in the NFL this season. He broke out last season for the Atlanta Falcons, and Michael Penix is expected to be the starter all season. He will help the Falcons dominate the line of scrimmage with how well he hits holes.
Robinson might put together a season where he looks like Marshall Faulk. Imagine if Robinson puts up 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving. If he dominates both aspects of offense like that, he might be considered even more important than a quarterback.
He caught 61 balls last year, with broken down Kirk Cousins throwing most of them. The Falcons were a mess, too. If they made very simple adjustments from last season, the offense would work incredibly well.
Now, they have everything moving in the right direction. Penix is going to be much better, and the Falcons have all the dominant offensive weapons working. With Robinson opening things up, the passing offense can really make an impact. And in turn, Robinson could do much better there, as well. It sounds unlikely he goes from under 500 yards to more than 1,000, but we could see it happen.
8. DK Metcalf
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers are facing their most important season in a long time. Mike Tomlin is seriously facing a hot seat for the first time in his career. Aaron Rodgers might be playing his final season. The Steelers want to be contenders, but they don’t have the roster to do it on paper.
Ironically, we’ve seen this work out before. We’ve also seen this not work dozens of times, but there are times when this works. In this scenario, it has to work, and if it is going to work, DK Metcalf is going to be the catalyst to the opportunity.
He joined the Steelers after a successful run with the Seattle Seahawks. He was alright but not great last year, so there are some doubts. Metcalf seems like the player who would be really motivated by having his back against the wall. Many doubted him coming out of the draft, which is why he fell to the second round. He proved people wrong before, and he could do it again.
Metcalf has a chance to put together insane numbers for the Steelers. With George Pickens now in Dallas, Metcalf is the entire offense. They don’t even have a great running back, so it’s literally Metcalf making this offense click.
9. Nico Collins
Houston Texans
The Houston Texans are in an interesting spot. Many have doubted their ability to be a true contender despite being in C.J. Stroud’s third year, and DeMeco Ryans is a veteran coach at this point. They have evolved from a young upstart into a team ready to compete at the highest level. Most would expect Stroud to be an unexpected MVP candidate in this scenario, but what if someone else on the offense took that mantle?
Enter Nico Collins. Many expect him to make the jump into one of the best players at his position. He should, if healthy, put up monster numbers on an offense that hits its stride.
Collins hasn’t been in these types of conversations, so he needs to do something insane to get into the conversation and actually win the MVP. He would need to break Calvin Johnson’s record. We’ve had players flirt with the record multiple times now that there are 17 games in a season, but Collins would probably have to get 2,000 yards.
That’s not really impossible. The Texans have a great season ahead of them. Their division is terrible. Daniel Jones is literally starting for a division rival. Collins will have a chance to put up insane numbers in the six divisional games. If he’s just really good in the rest of his matchups, he will have a chance to break the record.
10. Fred Warner
San Francisco 49ers
And finally, the 49ers get another option. Maybe it’s because the 49ers have Brock Purdy under center, and he feels very much like the centrist version of a quarterback. He did get talked about in the MVP race two seasons ago, but it didn’t feel realistic looking back at it. So, if the 49ers get back to the playoffs and as a top seed in the NFC, it will be because of other stars on the roster.
Fred Warner is the best player at his position. To be fair, we were between Warner and Patrick Surtain, two players at non-traditional defensive roles that don’t often get the nod for value, but cornerbacks have zero chance to win this award. Even if Surtain surprisingly won the Defensive Player of the Year last season, it’s more likely that Surtain becomes one of those “untargeted” cornerbacks.
Meanwhile, Warner will likely impact a large percentage of defensive plays. Last season, Warner had 131 tackles, one sack, and two interceptions. If he seriously increases the interceptions to six, adds 10 forced fumbles, and gets five sacks, there’s still an outside chance he can get MVP love.