In the early days of an NFL season, you can look at a team that's rolled off a couple of surprise wins and say "yeah, that won't last." But we're now seven weeks into this thing. Teams are fast approaching the point where they've played half of their games. We're in "you probably are what your record says you are" territory.
Which means that a handful of teams with surprisingly strong records might have those records not because of fluky results, but because they're actually talented football teams.
Here are five teams that we probably need to start taking seriously as real contenders after Week 7.
New England Patriots
Of all the surprise teams we should take seriously, I'd argue that the Patriots are the ones we should take the most seriously.
The 5-2 Patriots have won four games in a row. Yes, the past two opponents were the Saints and Titans, but that stretch includes a win over the Bills, and both losses were by a single score.
Drake Maye is playing like an MVP candidate. In Sunday's 31-13 win over the Titans, Maye was 21-for-23 for 222 yards and two touchdowns while also adding 62 rushing yards. Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson has struggled, but Rhamondre Stevenson looks good right now, and the Patriots defense has held five consecutive opponents to 21 points or fewer.
Indianapolis Colts
It feels like we've been collectively waiting for Daniel Jones to turn back into Daniel Jones, but maybe he's actually just good now?
Indianapolis faced one of its toughest tests of the season on Sunday as the team went on the road against the Chargers. The defense was hit or miss, picking off Justin Herbert twice but also allowing him to pass for 420 yards. That didn't matter, though, as the Colts walked away with a 38-24 victory.
Jones played well, throwing for 288 yards and two scores, but the real hero was Jonathan Taylor, who continues to look like the NFL's best running back. Taylor rushed for three touchdowns, marking the third time this season that Taylor has run for three touchdowns in a game. He leads the league with 10 rushing scores already this season.
Yes, Jones has improved, but the real secret to Indianapolis' offensive success is that Taylor is playing the best football of his career. He's not averaging quite as many yards as he did in 2021, but he's on track to score more touchdowns this year. As long as he's healthy, Jones doesn't need to do too much and the Colts will keep winning games.
Carolina Panthers
It hasn't always been pretty, but three consecutive wins have pushed the Carolina Panthers to 4-3 on the season
The Panthers showed in a big win over the Cowboys that they can win a shootout. They showed this week against the Jets that they can win an extremely ugly game, coming away with a 13-6 win.
Look: Out of all the teams here, this is the most likely to be a "fake" contender. Bryce Young has made strides as a passer, but there are still question marks about how good he can be. Still, it's hard to ignore a three-game win streak and a viable shot at a wild-card spot.
Denver Broncos
Denver certainly doesn't feel like a 5-2 football team, but they are, and on Sunday we got to see the kind of late-game heroics out of quarterback Bo Nix that you need to have if you're going to be a real contender.
After being held without a point and trailing 19-0 entering the fourth quarter, Sean Payton let Nix fling it in the fourth. The result was a 33-point fourth quarter for the Broncos, with Nix throwing two touchdown passes, rushing for a touchdown and tossing a pair of successful 2-point conversions in the comeback victory.
New York took the lead back with just 37 seconds to play, but Nix completed a 29-yard pass to Marvin Mims and a 22-yard pass to Courtland Sutton — both requiring immediate spikes afterward since Denver was out of timeouts — to set up a game-winning Will Lutz field goal.
Like Carolina, the wins haven't necessarily been pretty for Denver, but the team has a big win over the Eagles on its resume and a defense that's held three of its past four opponents under 20 points.
Chicago Bears
After starting 0-2, the Chicago Bears have won four in a row, with the team scoring at least 25 points in each win. Does Caleb Williams still have some kinks to work out? Sure — in Sunday's win over the Saints, he had just 172 passing yards and a pick, with the run-game accounting for both of Chicago's touchdowns.
But that also highlights how good the team is around Williams. D'Andre Swift is still a very good running back, and Kyle Monangai is coming on strong as the second option in the run game. When the Bears do need Williams throwing, the receiver duo of D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze gives him two high-end weapons.
Defensively, Chicago has room to improve, as the team ranks just 25th in scoring defense, but a lot of that is still skewed by the team allowing 52 points to Detroit in Week 2.