We all know what championship-caliber football looks like. While there are a plethora of quality teams scattered throughout the NFL, only eight are realistically competing for a Super Bowl championship this season. They know who they are. While others think that they are part of this group, they really are not. You can get better in a hurry in the NFL, but skipping steps is often to a team's disadvantage.
This is not to say that these teams cannot have great seasons this year, but I would be stunned if they represented either the AFC or the NFC in the Super Bowl. In a best-case scenario, they can all win a playoff game, maybe two if they get the right draw. In a worst-case scenario, we are looking at these handful of teams not even sniffing the playoffs. Fourteen teams get in every season, but the five below all could be left out.
So what I want to do today is pour a bit of ice-cold water on a hot day over the offseason hype trains surrounding five teams that are starting to get a bit out of control. People have their reasons for being high on these teams, as do I to some extent. However, at the end of the day, I know there are certain limitations that will inevitably hold back every single one of them for this year. Maybe things will be different come 2026?
Let's start with a team that is about to understand the reality of paying a good player great money.
5. San Francisco 49ers
I have a feeling the NFC West is going to be all sorts of jumbled together. While the Arizona Cardinals are my pick to win the division this year, it could go either way for the San Francisco 49ers. We know that Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch have been mainstays working for Jed York. Although they have had a great deal of success together, they have yet to win the big one. And I don't think it happens this year.
My biggest concern for the 49ers has less to do with there being no easy outs in the NFC West and more to do with the consequences of paying Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy franchise-quarterback money. He earned it, but that money of his is not going to someone else. It may not kick in fully until the 2026 season, but we will start to see ripple effects of paying Purdy top-tier money as a quarterback.
It would not shock me if the 49ers moved on from Shanahan if San Francisco misses the playoffs.
4. Minnesota Vikings
I may not have learned my lesson. My constant fading of all things Minnesota Vikings has often gotten me in trouble, yet they have not been to a Super Bowl in almost 50 years. For as much as I love Kevin O'Connell as their head coach, I still really do not trust Kwesi Adofo-Mensah as their general manager. Moreover, I need to see second-year pro J.J. McCarthy play in a game before crowning him.
Admittedly, I did not think the Sam Darnold experiment was going to work either. McCarthy is more talented than Darnold, but everything has been handed to McCarthy on a silver platter. He starred in a ground-centric offense at Michigan that was doing some seedy stuff throughout his time in Ann Arbor. McCarthy may be a revelation, but he looks small out there. I want to see him throw with touch.
Given how competitive the NFC North could be this year, Minnesota might miss the postseason entirely if it takes a step back.
3. Atlanta Falcons
Self-awareness is a great thing. I am well aware of what my Atlanta Falcons are and are not capable of. While Big Penix Energy courses through my veins, general manager Terry Fontenot keeps me up at night. Raheem Morris' coaching staff has given me nightmares before. Although I expect for the Falcons' offense to take flight with Michael Penix Jr., the defense must be better to make the playoffs.
I have Atlanta smack dab in the middle of this list because we might be exaggerating the demise of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers just a bit. They have been top dogs in the NFC South for a half a decade now. Keep an eye on the Carolina Panthers potentially being a dark horse sleeper to make the playoffs as well. Atlanta is a team that struggles to close out games, and this has to be rectified fast.
The Falcons' pathway to the postseason is right there in front of them, but they have to ... rise up first.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
I could not be more down on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their offseason has been loud, noisy and all kinds of dysfunctional. I am not alone in seeing cracks in the foundation of the Steelers' culture. While they did make the playoffs a year ago, I am going to go out on a limb and say this is the one team I feel the most certain will not be back. The division is tough. So is the AFC. Also, Aaron Rodgers plays here.
We are talking about a player who has not been good in three years, who is now in his 40s, playing for a defensive-minded coach in Mike Tomlin in a ground-centric offense led by the persnickety Arthur Smith. Rodgers loves to ad-lib. What could possibly go wrong? Pittsburgh may still end up winning nine or more games, but I am really struggling to see Rodgers helping this team win a playoff game.
The fact TJ Watt has not won a playoff game since being drafted says everything you need to know.
1. Chicago Bears
Do you think they know? They have no idea! No one wins more offseason championships than the Chicago Bears. While I am not going to rule out the possibility of them getting better this season, I like every other team in the NFC North more than them, and that includes the Vikings, whom I do not trust at all. My thing with the Bears has everything to do with ownership and whom they empower.
The McCaskeys still own the team. While there could be upside with Ben Johnson as a head coach, I think he bit off more than he could ever chew taking this job. Ryan Poles is one of my least favorite general managers in the sport. Caleb Williams is immensely talented, but I question if he has the right mental makeup to be a star in this league, let alone being the guy in Chicago. This could get toxic fast.
I have watched enough Bears football in my life to know that this is who they are what they are about.