Much like rebellions, NFL franchises are built on hope. In Star Wars, that hope might begin by stealing plans to the Death Star on an impossible mission overlooking a beautiful horizon. In the NFL, that hope might be believing your top-five pick quarterback can be good as a rookie ... then a sophomore ... and even entering year three.
In this post, we'll discuss seven former first-round picks who can avoid being a bust this season. But first, let's define the parameters. I fundamentally don't believe a second-year player can prove to be, or not be, a "bust" in year two. There's too much context and natural progression/regression that can happen in a player's second year.
I also didn't include any disappointing players taken outside of the top 20 of their draft. Most people know someone that far back, even in the first round, will be a long shot to be even a good starter for their team.
And finally, the furthest draft I included in this was 2022. That class is entering their fourth season in the league and just had decisions made on their fifth-year options. Each case is specific, but that means teams are already in decision-making mode on that player's future — so there's still hope. But the 2021 class for the most part are who they are — at least for the team that drafted them.
With that said, let's get into seven former first-round picks who can avoid being a bust this season!
Treylon Burks, WR, Tennessee Titans
Burks was the 18th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. He was infamously the pick made by Tennessee after trading WR A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles, causing a fracture in leadership and eventually the fall of that era of Titans football.
On the field, Burks has been a disaster, and it starts with availability. He's played in just 27 games in three seasons and produced less than 700 receiving yards and just one touchdown. For context, Quentin Johnston of the Los Angeles Chargers was considered for this list. But he had over 700 yards with EIGHT touchdowns in just 2024.
That said, the Titans wide receiver depth chart isn't that exciting. The team hasn't had an established 1-2 punch at the position since trading away Brown. Aside from Calvin Ridley, veterans like Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson are vying for a role, as well as rookies Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike. Burks has a ways to climb, but there's no obvious starter standing in his way either.
Now in year four, year two with Head Coach Brian Callahan, and year one with first-overall pick QB Cam Ward, maybe this is the recipe Burks needs to find success.
Broderick Jones, OT, Pittsburgh Steelers
Jones was the 14th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Pittsburgh traded up in that draft to select Jones and make him their left tackle of the future. Only problem is — he hasn't played left tackle for them yet.
Jones wasn't able to beat out veteran Dan Moore Jr. for the left tackle job in either of his first two seasons. And his play at right tackle left a lot to be desired. Some clear discomfort with the position in year one turned into outright bad and at time boneheaded play in year two.
With Moore gone to Tennessee, Jones is moving back to his natural position at left tackle. Even with a two-year gap since playing there, it's certainly possible Jones immediately finds himself more comfortable than he ever was on the right side.
Pittsburgh will have to make a decision on Jones's fifth-year option next spring. Getting the chance to go back to left tackle should give him the best odds of being part of Pittsburgh's long-term plans.
Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Green Bay Packers
Van Ness was the 13th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. He was a ball of clay coming out of Iowa, where he was more of a rotation player in his two years on the field. Van Ness played in fewer than 500 snaps in both of his playing years in school, but was able to record 13.5 sacks in that time.
Some of that story has followed him to the NFL, where — despite appearing in all 34 potential regular season games — Van Ness has played just 33 and 39 percent of the snaps in his first two seasons on defense. He has seven total sacks in that time.
Green Bay will hope for change this year. New defensive line coach DeMarcus Covington replaces Jason Rebrovich with the idea of helping Van Ness and Rashan Gary.
Van Ness has to play more in year three, and as a result, let's hope to see an uptick in the sack production.
Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Las Vegas Raiders
Wilson was the seventh overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. He fit the classic defensive end mold of huge and physically gifted, with a high floor as a run defender and a high ceiling as a pass rusher. He's held up part of that so far — 22nd in run defense grade from PFF among edge rushers last year — but just eight total sacks in his career so far.
PFF grades aren't everything though, and I doubt a Raiders fan is excited their former seventh overall pick is ranked 22nd among edge rushers in run defense. But there is good news for Wilson and Raiders Nation.
Despite Las Vegas bringing in their third head coach in three years (Wilson's whole career thus far), Defensive Coordinator Patrick Graham is still black and silver as the team's DC. Wilson should be able to build on a lot of the same teaching he's received so far in his young career
Wilson also has the opportunity in front of him on the depth chart. Fellow Edge Rusher Malcolm Koonce is returning from an injury that kept him out all last season. And Defensive Tackle Christian Wilkins is still recovering from his own injury. Even if both guys end up healthy by Week 1, there are plenty of chances for Wilson to work this summer and get ready for an important season coming up.
Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, New York Giants
Thibodeaux was the 5th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. For a long time in the year leading up to that draft, he was believed to be the consensus number one overall selection. Those things set the standard pretty high for what Giants fans wanted to see from Thibodeaux in the blue and white.
Thibodeaux took the second-year leap I alluded to at the top of this post. He went from four sacks as a rookie to 11.5 as a sophomore. But last year, when he played in just 12 games, he only had 5.5.
Off the field, Thibodeaux had his fifth-year option already picked up which is a good sign. But he needs to get back to high performance if he wants to stick beyond that. Current Head Coach and Joe Schoen are potentially in their last years with the team in 2025. And with the franchise invested in Brian Burns and Abdul Carter as well, Thibodeux could be expendable to a new leadership group.
But in that same breath, the addition of Carter might just help Thibodeaux, if Defensive Coordinator Shane Bowen can be creative with his three pass rushers.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Richardson was the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. The Indianapolis Colts went with Richardson to be their next young, franchise quarterback after Andrew Luck retired a handful of years before.
Richardson has dealt with injuries in his time in the league as well, including an AC Joint injury that kept him out of some spring workouts. In two seasons, Richardson has started just 15 games and has an 11:13 TD:INT ratio.
The team hasn't been too thrilled with Richardson in his time, and we can see that. Whether it's benching him for Joe Flacco or signing Daniel Jones, we know the team is unsure of its future with the QB.
BUT if Richardson can be healthy and productive in his third season, and mainly survive the year without being hurt or benched, we should see enough flashes to continue to see him in Indianapolis moving forward.
Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers
And finally, our first overall pick of this list. It's 2023's first overall pick, Bryce Young. Not only did the Panthers take Young with the number one pick, but they traded up handsomely to do so. Four picks across three years, including two first-round picks to be more specific.
Over his first year and a half, it looked like Young's career was over before it started. But since coming back as the team's starter last year in Week 8 he showed enough to get another shot. In the final 10 games, the Panthers went 4-6 and Young threw for over 2,000 yards with 15 touchdowns, just six interceptions, and five additional rushing touchdowns.
Now, Young can come into the season with more confidence than he did going into year two. It's also year two with head coach Dave Canales, a much better situation for Young than what happened during his rookie season.
With that consistency, plus Wide Receiver Tetairoa McMillan coming in as this year's first-round pick, Young is actually in position to stick with the Panthers for not just his rookie deal, but maybe beyond.