C.J. Stroud was responsible for seven Houston turnovers over the last two weeks, including four interceptions in the Texans' 28-16 loss to the New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon. He single-handedly ruined what was shaping up to be a deep playoff run, set up by the NFL’s best defense. And in the process, Stroud put GM Nick Caserio and the Texans front office in an impossible situation moving forward.
The Texans need to decide how much they’ll hold Stroud’s playoff dud over him. Houston should look hard at Miami’s situation with Tua Tagovailoa before overpaying for Stroud on a forthcoming extension. Sure, quarterbacks are at a premium, and Stroud is certainly talented. But you can’t overlook how turning to backup Davis Mills on Sunday wouldn’t have felt like an overreaction.
How can you justify paying Stroud like a top quarterback when he cost you a spot in the AFC Championship Game?
Why Houston should give C.J. Stroud a Sam Darnold type of deal
Stroud hasn’t earned a deal reminiscent of Brock Purdy, Joe Burrow or any other quarterback that has the playoff resume to back up their contract. Giving Stroud a long-term deal right now is similar to what Jacksonville did with Trevor Lawrence and Miami did with Tagovailoa. Lawrence has just two playoff appearances in his NFL career with one win. Tagovailoa has one playoff appearance and no wins.
Does Houston really want to pay full freight for Stroud now just to regret it a year into his new contract?
That’s why the Texans need to give Stroud a prove-it deal like Tampa Bay gave Baker Mayfield and Minnesota and Seattle gave Sam Darnold. When it came to paying Darnold, the Vikings and the Seahawks knew they were getting a decent quarterback, but they didn’t want to handcuff themselves to a player that could disappoint them. Darnold signed a three-year, $100 million deal last offseason, on the lower end, but still compensating him for what he’s done in his career so far.
Until Stroud proves he deserves to be paid like a top quarterback in the NFL, the Texans should treat him like an average quarterback. They should take his fifth-year option and that should be his last chance to prove his worth. If he shows out in his contract year, extend him; if he doesn’t, let him walk.
Should Houston consider letting C.J. Stroud go after his rookie contract is up?
It’s an interesting point. I don’t want to get too hyperbolic after a bad playoff performance altogether, but it’s easy to see why letting Stroud go after his rookie contract is up isn’t a bad idea. Houston doesn’t need a franchise quarterback to win right now. Sure, that makes it a lot easier, but an aging veteran can win with this roster and this defense.
The Texans have decent receivers and offensive weapons as a whole, but this defense is world-class. Any quarterback that doesn’t have to do much can succeed in Houston right now. Paying a premium price for an average result is irresponsible. This isn’t a slight to Stroud, but more a humbling moment for Houston.
The AFC South is still at the bottom of the totem pole. Jacksonville stepped it up this year, but until they post consistent playoff appearances like Houston’s had with Stroud, the Texans should still run that division. It’s not because of Stroud that Houston is a playoff team, and that’s why his future in Houston is confusing.
Since shocking the NFL in his rookie season, Stroud has three passing touchdowns and six interceptions in his last four playoff games. Yes, Stroud is playing well enough in the regular season, but regular-season success doesn’t get you paid like the upper echelon of quarterbacks in the NFL. Stroud has two more seasons to prove he’s worth a long-term contract, the kind that will force Houston to make sacrifices elsewhere on the roster.
He has two more chances to reach the postseason and be the franchise quarterback the Texans were dreaming on. A bridge quarterback can come in and look half as good as Stroud did on Sunday. If Stroud can’t outplay what any other quarterback could do in his situation, why would Houston feel the need to pay him at all?