It feels inevitable that the undefeated Indiana Hoosiers (15-0) are going to take home the College Football Playoff National Championship. The Curt Cignetti-led program, once known as a perennial bottom feeder, is just one victory away from completing the greatest two-year turnaround in the history of the sport.
Indiana vanquished traditional power house Alabama like it was a Group of Five challenger in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal and handled a rematch with Oregon better than it did in its earlier regular season victory. Now, the Hoosiers will travel to Hard Rock Stadium in Coral Gables, Florida to face 10-seed Miami, the tournament's Cinderella, on its home turf.
3 reasons Indiana will win the CFP title game over Miami
Everyone loves an underdog story but the Hurricanes' journey will end in their own backyard. There's just too much to love about Indiana's game that justifies it being a 7.5-point favorite.
1. The Hoosier offense just doesn't stop scoring
Indiana outscored both the Crimson Tide and Ducks by a combined 94-25 score line in its first two CFP games. Seven of its 10 offensive drives against Oregon resulted in touchdowns and it only punted twice all game against Alabama (both in the first half).
With an offense that is averaging 42.6 points per game (second-most in the nation), Indiana has failed to score less than 30 points just four times this season. It managed to drop a lot more than that on the No. 20 and No. 12 defenses in the country, respectively, and looks to have a full head of steam going into the title game.
2. The defense smothers all opposition
On the other side of the ball, Indiana boasts the second-best scoring defense in the nation. The Hoosiers allow an average of just 11.07 points per game and held Alabama to just three in the quarterfinal. Oregon managed to score 22 but it was held to just seven in the first half alone.
DANTE MOORE THROWS A PICK SIX ON THE FIRST PLAY #Indiana #Oregon pic.twitter.com/FkhiHRxFgx
— The Sports Place (@offsportsplace) January 10, 2026
In fact, the Peach Bowl semifinal opened with a quick strike from the Indiana defense on a 25-yard interception returned for a touchdown, the third such defensive score for the Hoosiers all year (two pick-sixes, one scoop-and-score). Indiana also picked off 18 passes this year, good for seventh-most in the nation. The Hoosiers have forced four turnovers (one INT, three fumbles) in the CFP and will be out for blood on the shores of the Florida coast.
3. Fernando Mendoza doesn't crack under pressure
The 2025 Heisman Trophy winner got a lot of unnecessary heat over his achievement and he seems to have taken that personally. Mendoza has proven without a doubt that he deserved the best-in-the-nation honors with a whopping 369 passing yards and eight touchdowns across two playoff games. He's also been the most accurate passer in the bracket going 31-for-36 (86 percent) in that span.
His offensive line, affectionately known as "the hogs," have prevented him from seeing too much pressure but even after getting sacked four times in the last two games Mendoza has looked elite. Miami's secondary has been gashed for an average of 206.1 passing yards this season while the Hoosier QB is averaging 223.3 yards per game. That's a favorable matchup if I've ever seen one.
It's very hard to pick against Indiana in the CFP title game. The Hoosiers are firing on all cylinders and it would take a collapse of epic proportions for Miami to complete an underdog story that would feel like a sad ending to Cignetti's rebellion against the traditional powers of college football.