The Indianapolis Colts continue to solidify their offensive core. Two days after striking a record-breaking $114 million contract with top receiver Alec Pierce, the Colts have signed quarterback Daniel Jones to a two-year, $100 million contract, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. It's the largest two-year deal in NFL history.
The #Colts are locking in their QB, finalizing a deal with Daniel Jones to secure the most important position, per me and @TomPelissero.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 11, 2026
It’s a 2-year, $100M contract done by his agents at @AthletesFirst. The biggest two-year deal in NFL history. pic.twitter.com/Y5NuKb87xr
This means Indianapolis caved to Jones' lofty contract demands, although there's a good chance Jones settled for fewer years than he initially wanted. This is a happy compromise on the surface. Jones gets to shed the $37.3 million transition tag; the Colts lock up a quarterback who led the most efficient offense in the NFL for the first half of last season. That said, there is considerable risk involved.
Colts are paying Daniel Jones based on a small sample size
It's not hard to understand the logic behind Indianapolis' decision. Jones was a coveted free agent last summer, even after New York cut him midseason. There has long been high-ranking belief in Jones' talent, even if he was stuck in a dreadful, counterproductive situation with the Giants.
Jones appeared to pay off that belief for a good chunk of 2025. The Colts went into their Week 11 buy with an 8-2 record; their offense ranked near the top of the league in every meaningful metric. Jones was a borderline MVP candidate.
Out of the buy, however, Indianapolis dropped two straight. In Week 13 against Houston, Jones ruptured his Achilles and his season was over. The Colts lost literally every subsequent game to finish 8-9 and miss the playoffs.
Jones' surface numbers were excellent. He completed 68.0 percent of his passes for 3,101 yards, 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 13 starts, with a career-high 52 percent success rate on throws — best in the NFL. He also ran for 164 yards and five more touchdowns.
That caliber of production is worth $50 million AAV in today's quarterback market. But here's the rub: it's less than a season of solid production. Jones' Giants tenure went by the wayside for a reason. He had a single winning season in 2022, where it felt like something clicked. But otherwise Jones was a hot mess whose turnover issues overshadowed all self-evident tools and talent.
Now, he's coming off of an Achilles injury, which adds an extra layer of uncertainty to a historically unreliable quarterback. The Colts re-signed Pierce, which was important, but he's an overpaid WR1 who doesn't offer much support in the intermediate range. Michael Pittman, Jones' second-favorite receiver, is now in Pittsburgh as a cap-clearing measure.
Indianapolis is putting all its eggs for the next year (at least) into a fragile and potentially volatile basket. Shane Steichen is a great offensive coach. But was Brian Daboll not a reasonably competent playcaller in New York? Jaxson Dart sure looked good last season. We can attribute Jones' struggles in New York to a variety of factors — poor protection, a patchwork receiving core, extreme external pressure — but it was mostly self-induced errors exacerbated by a poor environment, not necessarily caused by a poor environment.
Jones seemed to turn a corner last season. All the numbers back up this decision for Indianapolis, and Steichen is frankly a coach worth trusting. But do not overlook the downside the Colts are flirting with.
Was this the best option for Indianapolis?
The Colts basically reset the market for good-not-great quarterbacks, hoping that Jones can cross the threshold to great once he's back to full strength. But Jones will spend a good chunk of next season regaining confidence in his knee, if history is any indication. We cannot expect the absolute sharpest version of Danny Dimes in 2026 and that's half the life of his contract.
Indianapolis is betting on upside and familiarity. Jones was the best quarterback on the market this offseason, point blank. It was a weaker market, but it's fair to say Jones raises the Colts' competitive ceiling more than any other free agent or potential draft pick. Whether he's the most likely to reach his ceiling is less clear.
Kyler Murray is available for the minimum. Maybe his heart is set on Minnesota and the Colts never had a chance, but Murray is a former No. 1 pick with Pro Bowl pedigree. He's also a dual-threat quarterback, even more comfortable spinning out of the pocket and legging out critical yards than Jones. Jones has a better frame and somehow a less worrisome injury history, but $50 million versus less than $2 million makes it a worthwhile debate on valuation.
Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa were other bargain-bin options available to Indianapolis. A last-second push for Aaron Rodgers? A call to the unretiring Derek Carr, or even a roll of the dice on everyone's favorite mystery box, Malik Willis. None of these are ideal options, but they are cheaper options.
It's worth noting that is effectively a one-year commitment, with around $50 million guaranteed. So it's not like the Colts are completely anchored to Jones. If he comes back next season and flames out, Indianapolis can move on. Just know this contract has a chance to look very silly a year from now. The Colts are running back a team that completely fell apart, with an inconsistent QB on the wrong side of an Achillies injury.
Buckle in, Colts fans. It could get bumpy.