Called it.
We can point fingers all over the Bills' roster, looking for someone to blame for their scariest loss yet, until the cows come home. But to both cross out and recap:
Bijan Robinson and Drake London are special players, and were always going to put up numbers against an underperforming secondary and banged up defensive line. Tyler Allgier is also one of the best backup running backs in the league, and Michael Penix, Jr. was seeming smacked awake after his embarrassing performance against the Panthers in Week 3.
Josh Allen got shaken up early, and the Falcons' pass rush is one of the best young units in the league as the headliners of the NFL's stingiest pass defense through six weeks. These things were all contributing factors to Buffalo's goose egg on Monday Night Football.
But from the jump, you could tell how badly the Buffalo Bills missed tight end Dalton Kincaid, who was a late scratch after missing most of last week's practice due to an oblique injury. And in his absence, no one seemed able to step up, with not a single receiving option compiling over six targets or three catches.
The Dalton Kincaid trickle down effect is real
It seemed early on that Buffalo's strategy without Kincaid was simply 'next man up', with Dawson Knox snagging an early 19 yard touchdown reception in the first quarter. But Allen looked away from Knox almost as quickly (2 total targets), as the two clearly didn't share the same chemistry Allen has with Kincaid.
Let's break down Dalton Kincaid's numbers thus far. Despite his Week 6 absence, Kincaid's 3 touchdowns are still tied for fifth among all tight ends. His 14.4 yards per catch leads all tight ends with at least 20 receptions. Until Week 6, only Indianapolis' Tyler Warren had accumulated more total receiving yards (287). He's also led all tight ends in receptions of 20+ yards through Week 6, and yet is only 16th in high yardage for a single catch (28).
If the picture isn't clear enough, I'll spell it out: Dalton Kincaid is Josh Allen's safety blanket. He is who everyone thought Keon Coleman or Khalil Shakir would be. If you look back on the tape from Buffalo's Week 3 win over Miami (who scored way more than they should have), Kincaid was Allen's first look on almost every single one of his receptions. He even literally lined up at receiver at one point!
Dalton Kincaid isn't just a dump-off target for the Bills. They scheme for him, gameplan for him to succeed. He is an active playmaking win condition for them when healthy. And if he's not on the field, Kincaid takes more than himself. Josh Allen gets messier. Teams are able to cover Buffalo's deep threats with more ease. Their running game isn't as stout. There is a legit butterfly effect should Dalton Kincaid miss time, and the most important thing that the Atlanta Falcons did for any team hoping to defeat Buffalo was to expose that fact.
Josh Allen is the Buffalo Bills' MVP. But Dalton Kincaid is his. And without both operating at full strength, it's hard to see how the Bills can fully realize the best Super Bowl hope they've had since Patrick Mahomes' 13-second drive.