The Las Vegas Raiders fell to 1-4 over the weekend in rather embarrassing fashion, with a 40-6 loss to the surging Indianapolis Colts. It was yet another volatile performance for quarterback Geno Smith, who completed 25-of-36 passes for 228 yards, but also threw two interceptions and led zero touchdown drives.
Smith has nine interceptions through five weeks. He is on pace to shatter Kirk Cousins' league-leading 15 interceptions last season, although Smith is at least avoiding fumbles. The 34-year-old is still connecting on a high percentage of his throws (65.0), with 1,176 passing yards to his name and six touchdowns. But unless Smith can cut down on turnovers, the Raiders' offense will have a difficult time keeping up with more disciplined groups.
For now, Smith is still the QB1 in Sin City, but one has to wonder how much longer that arrangement sticks. His strong relationship with ex-Seahawks coach Pete Carroll gives Smith a buffer, but at a certain point, you can't throw multiple interceptions every week and expect to start 17 games in the NFL.
Las Vegas made a trade to acquire Kenny Pickett, who just recently was thought to be QB1 in Cleveland before injuries sent him sliding down the depth chart. Pickett has plenty of experience and is young enough to feign upside. He also doesn't throw many interceptions, which could tempt Carroll and the Raiders' coaching staff if the offense continues to suffer self-inflicted wounds.
While Smith certainly carries his portion of the blame, we'd be dishonest not to point out the other culprits. Chief among them: offensive coordinator Chip Kelly.
NFL insiders blame Chip Kelly, in part, for Raiders' shaky offense
There was a time, not so long ago, when Chip Kelly was at the cutting edge of offensive playcalling. When he was the head coach at Oregon in the early 2010s, Kelly was the belle of the ball — an object of affection and obsession for ADs and GMs across the country. His up-tempo, high-scoring offense felt like a revolution.
But times have changed, as they so often do, and Kelly is no longer the bravura playcalling wizard he was more than a decade ago. After multiple failed coaching stints in the NFL and in college, from the Eagles in Philly to the Bruins of UCLA, Kelly arrived in Las Vegas this summer as a distressed asset. On the surface, hiring him made sense for Pete Carroll and Tom Brady, who no doubt respect Kelly's vast résumé. But so far, it's not working out for the Raiders, and folks around the league are beginning to take notice.
"What I'm hearing from a lot from people around the league is that offensive coordinator Chip Kelly's scheme isn't creating enough advantages to overcome the Raiders' personnel deficiencies, and there's no margin for error if Smith keeps turning the ball over as much as he has," writes ESPN's Dan Graziano.
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler offers more insight on the shortcomings of this Raiders offense, which extend well beyond Kelly's vanilla scheme.
"Scouts I have talked to believe Smith has been too late with the ball this season and is relying on arm talent to force throws into tight windows," he writes. "On the flip side, the Raiders were without their top two tight ends (Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer) and left tackle Kolton Miller on Sunday against Indianapolis. And the receiver depth is not great overall."
Raiders need Chip Kelly and Geno Smith to find a higher gear soon
This season was always going to present a challenge for Pete Carroll and the entire Raiders organization. Smith is a talented quarterback who has led winning teams in Seattle. Maxx Crosby and the defense aren't without personnel advantages. But overall, this is a patchwork roster, still mired in a years-long rebuild. The attempt to transition from NFL basement-dweller to contender was, perhaps, a little bit rushed.
Now the pressure is on Carroll, but even more acutely on Kelly and Smith, to buckle in and start winning games. Carroll has earned all the respect and benefit of the doubt a coach could have. Kelly? Not so much. Smith? Well, the 34-year-old was a late bloomer, but he's still 34. There's only a finite window for most quarterbacks at the highest level of competition.
Smith is still threading the needle on challenging throws and generating explosive plays. He has not lost his fastball, so to speak. He just needs to render quicker decisions (a challenge, given the Raiders' feeble O-line and somehow worse wide receiver room) and avoid these back-breaking mistakes under pressure. He's still going to be under pressure, of course. There's no way around it with this Raiders squad. But Smith cannot let that pressure lead to poor decisions and inaccurate throws. He needs to rise above his circumstances, before it's too late.