How Week 18 results could reshape the 2026 NFL Draft order

The New York Giants had a chance to secure the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft with a loss to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 17, but Geno Smith — who Vegas will almost certainly find a way to move on from this offseason — gave his team one last gift, throwing a pair of interceptions in a 34-10 loss.

Now, the Raiders are squarely in the driver's seat to earn the top pick, but the No. 1 selection isn't guaranteed, and the No. 2 selection is far, far from guaranteed for the Giants. Plenty can still happen, and in a draft that features a number of teams in need of quarterback help with two guys who could go one-two, there's plenty of incentive for certain teams to lose games. Let's take a look at how some Week 18 results could reshape the 2026 NFL Draft order.

Updated NFL Draft order heading into Week 18

1. Las Vegas Raiders (2-14)
2. New York Giants (3-13)
3. New York Jets (3-13)
4. Tennessee Titans (3-13)
5. Arizona Cardinals (3-13)
6. Cleveland Browns (4-12)
7. Washington Commanders (4-12)
8. New Orleans Saints (6-10)
9. Kansas City Chiefs (6-10)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (6-10)
11. Miami Dolphins (7-9)
12. Los Angeles Rams (via ATL (7-9))
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
14. Dallas Cowboys (7-8-1)
15. Detroit Lions (8-8)
16. Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
17. Minnesota Vikings (8-8)
18. New York Jets (via IND (8-8))
19. Carolina Panthers (8-8)
20. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
21. Dallas Cowboys (via GB (9-6-1))
22. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
23. Buffalo Bills (11-5)
24. Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
25. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
26. Houston Texans (11-5)
27. Cleveland Browns (via JAX (12-4))
28. San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
29. Chicago Bears (11-5)
30. New England Patriots (13-3)
31. Denver Broncos (13-3)
32. Seattle Seahawks (13-3)

The Raiders have the inside track for the No. 1 pick

• Raiders lose to the Chiefs: Raiders secure the No. 1 overall pick
• Raiders win and Giants win: Raiders still pick No. 1
• Raiders win and Giants lose: Raiders fall to No. 2 on tiebreaker

The problem? Kansas City is down to its third-string quarterback, and the offense has looked hapless with Chris Oladokun under center, so Vegas shouldn't count its chickens before they hatch. It's definitely within the realm of possibilities that the Raiders are unable to lose this game, especially with reports out that Carroll won't return next season. Why try to lose what might be your final game as an NFL head coach when you won't even be around to reap the reward?

The Giants could jump up to the No. 1 pick

• Giants get the No. 1 overall pick with a loss and Raiders win and if two of the following teams win: Seahawks, Falcons, Browns or Bears.

Giants could jump up to No. 1 with Vegas dropping to No. 2 if the Raiders win and the Giants lose, as the No. 1 pick would go to the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker, with the team with the lowest SOS earning the top pick. New York would still need extra help in that scenario, though: According to NFL Network researcher Jack Andrade, Big Blue needs two wins from the four-team group of the Seahawks, Falcons, Browns and Bears.

This would be a huge swing for the Giants. They don't need a quarterback, which means that in a draft where numerous teams want Fernando Mendoza, the team could get a haul by trading back. There will still be some demand if New York picks No. 2, especially from teams that view Dante Moore highly, but you aren't getting the same kind of return.

Seven teams can still land the No. 2 pick

• Giants get the No. 2 pick with a loss plus Raiders loss
• Jets get the No. 2 pick with a loss plus Giants win
• Titans get the No. 2 pick with a loss plus Giants/Jets/Cardinals wins
• Cardinals get the No. 2 pick with a loss plus Giants/Jets/Titans wins
• Browns get the No. 2 pick with a loss plus Giants/Jets/Titans/Cardinals wins
• Commanders get the No. 2 pick with a loss plus Giants/Jets/Titans/Cardinals/Browns wins

While the battle for the No. 1 pick is easy to parse, the race for No. 2 is very much not. Seven teams could still get that pick depending on different results, with the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker almost certainly in play. The teams that could earn that pick are the Browns, Cardinals, Commanders, Giants, Jets, Raiders and Titans, with the Giants currently in possession of that pick.

The Giants have the edge here, as all they have to do is lose. A Giants win, however, would lead to a number of possibilities.

The Jets have the best shot in the case of a Giants win, with each successive team needing the teams ahead of it in the order to lose. Tennessee and Arizona are also close enough in SOS that they could flip-flop depending on circumstances, but right now, Tennessee has the edge with a .563 opponent winning percentage compared to Arizona's .570.

Earning that second pick would be a disappointment for the Raiders or Giants, but every other team should be clamoring for it. The Jets, Cardinals and Browns could all use Moore, while the Titans and Commanders have young quarterbacks already and could trade down to help build around them.

The Chiefs have a path to the No. 8 pick

• Chiefs get the No. 8 pick with a loss and Saints win

Kansas City entered the season with Super Bowl hopes. They end it hoping for a loss and a few favorable results elsewhere to jump as high as No. 8, which could be enough to get a shot at one of the elite skill position players in this class: wide receivers Jordyn Tyson and Carnell Tate and running back Jeremiyah Love.

The issue for K.C. is that it faces the Raiders this week in a game that's also a must-lose for Vegas. Winning that game could move the Chiefs as high as No. 12 in the draft order, which might be so low that the team misses all three of the aforementioned names. Obviously, good players will still be on the board at that spot, but none of them give Patrick Mahomes a new weapon to help fix this offense.

Tampa Bay's 2026 first-round pick might be the biggest mystery

If the Buccaneers win against the Panthers on Saturday — and the Saints beat the Falcons — then Tampa wins the NFC South. That means Tampa can't pick higher than No. 19 overall. But with a loss, Tampa could move up from its current spot of No. 13 to ... maybe the top 10? Honestly, the tiebreakers and results get pretty convoluted, but I think Tampa could pick at No. 10 (although they would need a lot of help).

The difference in available talent at those spots is huge, but I'm sure Tampa's not thinking about that. This team wants to make the playoffs; it's not clear how much longer franchise legend Mike Evans has left, so getting into the postseason and hoping to make some surprising noise is the Bucs' ideal outcome

However, missing out isn't the end of the world. Tampa's in a good spot here: Either they make the playoffs, or they wind up with a good draft pick with which they can hopefully fill a needed hole.