Trevor Lawrence was supposed to be the next great quarterback, a generational prospect who had been on the national stage since high school. Lawrence won a national title at Clemson and was the runner-up in the Heisman race in 2020 before foregoing his senior season to declare for the NFL Draft, where he was the consensus pick to go No. 1 overall to Jacksonville.
And that's exactly what happened. The Jaguars got what looked, at the time, to be a franchise savior, but it feels like Lawrence's development stalled out following his Pro Bowl 2022 season.
Jacksonville sits at 5-4 on the year right now and Lawrence is playing his worst football since at least his rookie year. It's time for the Jaguars to start asking some difficult questions about Lawrence, because Sunday's loss to the Texans has the team's playoff chances looking the shakiest they have all season.
The Jaguars might have a Trevor Lawrence problem
Lawrence is completing 59.5 percent of his pass attempts this season, which is on track to be the worst mark of his NFL career. His touchdown percentage of 3.2 percent is his lowest since his rookie season and his success rate of 40.4 percent is his lowest ever. His passer rating of 79.3 is the second-lowest mark in the league behind only rookie Cam Ward.
That's not good! This is the point in Lawrence's career when — if he was as good as he was originally projected to be — he'd be ascending into the next tier. A 26-year-old, former No. 1 overall pick should be entering his prime. Instead, there are serious questions about whether Jacksonville can win with Lawrence or not.
The issue is that Jacksonville doesn't have an easy way out of this thing. The only way through is through, right? His 2024 contract extension makes it nearly impossible to move on from him until at least 2028. A 2027 trade would cost the Jaguars $36 million in dead cap. A 2027 post-June 1 trade would cost the same amount but be spread between two seasons, which is still fairly prohibitive, but I guess it's manageable?
Jaguars don't have a way out of Trevor Lawrence's contract
There's no realistic out in 2026, so Jacksonville is at least on the hook for Lawrence as its starting quarterback next year, and then would have to weigh his 2026 performance to decide if it's worth eating a massive cap hit in 2027 or if it's easier to stick with the guy for another season.
The Jaguars need Lawrence to figure things out. Instead, he's playing some of the worst football he's ever played. If we get to the end of the season and that's still the case, it might be time to bring in a young quarterback this offseason as a way of at least thinking about a succession plan. Because right now, Lawrence appears to be holding the Jaguars back from their full potential.
This is especially concerning because Jacksonville was a buyer at the deadline, trading for wide receiver Jakobi Meyers, who is in the last year of his contract. That's a win-now move, but Lawrence is not playing like a win-now quarterback. Is that going to wind up being a complete misfire from this front office?