Week 10 still has a couple of primetime games still to go, but so far it's felt a bit like a statement Sunday. While the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans put together cardiac fourth-quarter comebacks to keep pace in the Wild Card chase, plenty of other would-be contenders left no doubt: The Seahawks, Lions and Rams all won in laughers, while the Patriots never blinked in a tough road date against the Bucs. All four delivered the kind of performances that should have their fan bases dreaming big right now.
But of course, only two teams can be left standing on Super Bowl Sunday. Who has the best chance of going on a deep playoff run? Here's how the full postseason picture looks witih Week 10 almost in the books,
How the AFC bracket would look if the playoffs started with Week 10 almost in the books
Wild Card round
No. 7 Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) at No. 2 Denver Broncos (8-2)
Well, look at the bright side Jacksonville: Sure, you coughed up a sure win over the Houston Texans by allowing three unanswered touchdowns in the fourth quarter to Davis Mills. But at least an all-time choke job wasn't enough to knock you out of the playoffs entirely. Instead, you get to travel to Mile High for the Wild Card round, where Trevor Lawrence will surely handle this Denver defense with poise and accuracy
No. 6 Buffalo Bills (6-3) at No. 3 New England Patriots (8-2)
It feels like the Bills and Pats are on a bit of a collision course right now, and while I've ridden with Buffalo in this matchup for a few weeks now, Sunday was enough to get me to change my tune. This New England team is simply too well-rounded, Drake Maye is prepared beyond his years and I'm just not sure that Buffalo has enough on defense to go into Foxboro and win this game.
No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) at No. 4 Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
Well, we'll find out a lot about this matchup when these two exact teams square off in Pittsburgh on Sunday night. Until then, though, I'm still fading the Steelers at every opportunity, despite the win over the top-seeded Colts last weekend. The Pittsburgh defense will have to show me they can do it over and over again, and I think this is the moment Justin Herbert finally manages to get over the hump.
Divisional round
No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers at No. 1 Indianapolis Colts (8-2)
I'll be honest: I don't have a ton of faith in either of these teams come January; Indy's cooled off a bit as Daniel Jones' worst habits rear their ugly heads, while this Chargers defense has taken a pretty significant step backward from what it was last year. But I can't get the previous meeting between these two out of my head, in which this Colts running game sliced and diced L.A. in a comfortable win.
No. 3 New England Patriots at No. 2 Denver Broncos
Lord help me, I'm backing Maye again here in what will be his first playoff run. Yes, this Broncos defense is terrifying, and Sean Payton always has something special cooked up come January. But Bo Nox and this offense are ugly right now, too ugly for me to trust. New England's defense isn't too shabby either, and I simply think they're the better team right now.
Championship round
No. 3 New England Patriots at No. 1 Indianapolis Colts
Give me the Patriots to make it back to the Super Bowl. Indianapolis will have home-field advantage here, and this offense could just run hot for a few weeks and render everything else moot. But Maye figures to be too much for a secondary that is still a bit wobbly even with Sauce Gardner in tow, and do you really trust Jones to make plays with everything on the line and New England's front seven getting after him? I know I don't.
How the NFC bracket would look if the playoffs started with Week 10 almost in the books
Wild Card round
No. 7 San Francisco 49ers (6-4) at No. 2 Seattle Seahawks (7-2)
The 49ers still hold on to a Wild Card spot despite an ugly home loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, but it's hard to have a ton of confidence in this team right now given how they're playing and just how many stars are banged up. Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle will leave everything on the field, and Mac Jones is doing his best, but at a certain point the dam breaks, and Sam Darnold is white-hot right now.
No. 6 Detroit Lions (6-3) at No. 3 Green Bay Packers (5-2-1)
A rematch of Week 1 that should look next to nothing like that previous game, given how each team has looked since. Detroit's interior of the offensive line is a bit of a mess right now, and they might not be good enough to exploit Green Bay's weakness up the middle on defense. But I believe in Dan Campbell to figure out how to get this offense right, and I also don't trust Jordan Love not to come up small in the biggest moments.
No. 5 Los Angeles Rams (7-2) at No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)
The Bucs have also done an admirable job just staying afloat amid a rash of injuries, but the bill is going to come due in a big-time way in this hypothetical matchup. I'm not sure who can slow down Matthew Stafford, Sean McVay and this Rams offense right now, and that will remain true so long as Puka Nacua and Co. can just stay healthy.
Divisional round
No. 6 Detroit Lions at No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles (6-2)
What a fun matchup this would be. In the end, though, I just have a bit too much faith in Philadelphia, especially at home. If this were last year's Lions I might feel differently, but there are just too many questions that Detroit has yet to answer about the stability of this running game and whether htey can recapture the ruthless efficiency they had under Ben Johnson. Combine that with Jared Goff in the cold under duress, and I'm backing the Birds here.
No. 5 Los Angeles Rams at No. 2 Seattle Seahawks
These two teams are set for their first regular-season meeting next Sunday, and both of them can credibly claim Super Bowl dreams right now. There might not be two quarterbacks playing better than Stafford and Darnold, nor two wide receivers more dangerous than Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Ultimately, I have slightly more confidence in Mike Macdonald than I do in Chris Shula, so I'll take the home team.
Championship round
No. 2 Seattle Seahawks at No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles
Smith-Njigba seems like a nightmare matchup for an Eagles team that's struggled in the secondary in recent weeks, but I think Philly gets back to the Super Bowl. Vic Fangio knows how to take away an offense's lifeblood, and I don't know that Seattle has a plan B if JSN is taken out of the game. Granted, that's easier said than done, but I think the Eagles can win up front and hold on in what would be a thriller.
Super Bowl prediction after Week 10
New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles
From Philly's attempt at a rare Super Bowl repeat to Drake Maye's first foray onto the big stage, this matchup would have a bit of everything. It would also have a bit of a head coaching mismatch in Mike Vrabel against Nick Sirianni, and I would love to see this Eagles offensive line try to impose their will on a sturdy Patriots defense.