Aaron Rodgers is a married man as of this offseason – news that surprised the NFL landscape because Rodgers is typically a public persona – but as it pertains to his play on the football field, the Pittsburgh Steelers should heed this warning. Rodgers has starred for Pittsburgh through eight games, but there is no guarantee that'll continue for the final nine, or into next season for that matter.
Yes, while Rodgers is 41 years old going on 42, some Steelers players have expressed interest in bringing him back for another year. Rodgers himself told The Pat McAfee Show this was likely his final season prior to reporting to training camp in Latrobe, but even he couldn't have imagined his 2025 campaign would go this well. Assuming there's more money on the table – which there should be if he performs this well the rest of the way and the Steelers reach the playoffs – he'll have a tough decision to make.
The Steelers have been here before, but not with Rodgers
Just last season, the Steelers were in a similar position. Pittsburgh barely snuck into the postseason at 10-7, but through eight games, the Steelers had an early AFC North lead over the Baltimore Ravens thanks to the play of Justin Fields and Russell Wilson, the latter of whom was a veteran quarterback Pittsburgh hoped they could build around. In Arthur Smith's offense, Wilson got off to a flying start with numbers no dissimilar to those Rodgers is putting up now.
The 2024 Steelers thrived in the short passing game and relied heavily on the run without many targets (minus George Pickens) for Wilson to throw to on the outside. Russ's patented moonball was a primary feature of Pittsburgh's passing game. Through seven starts, Wilson’s EPA per attempt (0.27) was twice as good as Rodgers. His EPA per dropback (0.11) was more than twice as good as Rodgers (0.05) and his passer rating of was a few ticks higher (103.9) than Rodgers' (103.1).
We all know how last season ended for the Steelers. Wilson struggled down the stretch, and the Steelers lost their final four games of the regular season before being bounced from the postseason in humilating fashion by the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Wild Card Round. Will Rodgers suffer a similar fate?
There are key differences between Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson
The key difference between Rodgers and Wilson is pedigree. Rodgers is a surefire Hall of Famer and one of the best quarterbacks of all-time, while Wilson will be a borderline Canton enshrinee when all is said and done. Rodgers also has one of the quickest releases in NFL history, which has helped him immensely this season in the Steelers quick passing attack.
One can only hope Smith learned something from Pittsburgh's offensive collapse to end the 2024 season, and made the right adjustments as a result. Rodgers gets rid of the ball quickly and isn't afraid to throw it away when his first or second read isn't available. Wilson often held onto the ball too long and put the Steelers offense behind the chains on second or third and long. That's not a winning formula.
All that being said, the Steelers front office can learn a lot from Wilson's downfall from starting quarterback to late-career backup at best. Quarterbacks can fall of a cliff at a rate quicker than Rodgers' steady release. They must be ready to face that reality.
Keeping Aaron Rodgers beyond 2025 comes with risks for the Steelers
The best-case scenario for the Steelers this season is to win a playoff game and perhaps more. They have a two-game lead in the AFC North as of this writing. If Rodgers is able to lead them there, then he can name his price for the 2026 season should he choose to return. But, if there's one thing we've learned about Rodgers over the years, it's that he'll take his time making that decision. Thus, the Steelers must prepare next offseason as if Rodgers isn't coming back.
The good news is the 2026 NFL Draft is in Pittsburgh, and when factoring in likely compensatory picks, the Steelers draft cupboard should be loaded with ammunition to find their quarterback of the future. Whether Rodgers performs well or crashes back to earth like Wilson did a season ago shouldn't change Omar Khan's long-term outlook. This team is lacking its quarterback of the future. They can find one when the offseason lights are brightest on Pittsburgh's north shore.