In recent years, we've seen former first-round quarterbacks who didn't look like they had a bright NFL future turn their careers around, with Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold being the most notable examples. Unsurprisingly yet somewhat laughably, New York Jets general manager Darren Mougey believes Justin Fields can be the next example of this.
"I do believe Justin can be one of those guys," Mougey said Thursday morning, referring to QBs who have rejuvenated their careers.
Of course, Mougey and the Jets should have some hope for Fields, whom they signed to a two-year $40 million deal this summer. However, Mayfield and Darnold had two things that Fields didn't have: an offensive-minded coach and elite weapons. Yes, talent is a factor, but the supporting cast was crucial for these QBs, and the Jets lack the supporting cast needed for Fields to change his career trajectory.
Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield were gifted the ideal situations
Darnold's future as a starting QB looked bleak until his magical 2024 campaign with the Minnesota Vikings. Before last season, the 2018 No. 3 pick (ironically drafted by the Jets) had a 21-35 record with 63 touchdowns to 56 interceptions, and he had only thrown for more than 3,000 yards once. However, Darnold racked up 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns while leading the Vikings to a 14-3 record.
Kevin O'Connell is one of the best offensive coaches in the league. Plus, Darnold was surrounded by elite weapons, most notably Justin Jefferson, but also Jordan Addison and one of the league's best tight ends in T.J. Hockenson. It remains to be seen if the USC product can sustain this success with the Seattle Seahawks.
Baker was in a similar position before taking over as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers starting QB in 2023. Over the past two seasons, Mayfield has thrown for over 4,000 yards and led the Bucs to consecutive playoff births.
Todd Bowles isn't the same offensive mind as O'Connell. However, Dave Canales and Liam Coen were Baker's offensive coordinators in the past two seasons; both coaches later earned head coaching jobs, with Coen widely considered an offensive guru. The 2018 No. 1 pick is also surrounded by an all-time great receiver in Mike Evans and a Pro Bowl-level WR in Chris Godwin.
Justin Fields is in a difficult situation with the Jets
Frankly, Fields' situation with the Jets pales in comparison. Yes, Fields has Garrett Wilson, but his WR2 is either Allen Lazard or Josh Reynolds. That's a big difference from Godwin or Addison. New head coach Aaron Glenn is a defensive-minded coach who has openly discussed the plan for the Jets to be a run-heavy team.
This is somewhat understandable given Fields' weaknesses as a passer and the Jets' roster construction. However, this all but ensures Fields won't break out to the level of Darnold or Baker. And it will likely make the Jets' offense extremely predictable. Tanner Engstrand is taking over as the Jets' OC. Like Glenn, he comes from the Detroit Lions, where he served as a pass game coordinator. Maybe Engstrand will prove to be the offensive guru, but that remains to be seen.
Of course, the Jets should project that they are confident in Fields; it would be strange if they didn't. However, given the Jets' situation, it shouldn't be expected that Fields turns his career around like Baker or Darnold did.