That sound you heard in the distance on Sunday evening may well have been the Detroit Lions' Super Bowl window slamming shut for good. After losses to the Eagles and Packers in November, Dan Campbell's team got one more shot at taking down an NFC heavyweight in Week 15. Unfortunately, the result was depressingly familiar: Jared Goff and the Detroit offense stalled out after a white-hot start, and a depleted defense was no match for Sean McVay in a 41-34 loss.
After a 4-1 start, the Lions have gone 4-5 over their next nine games and are now 8-6 overall. This looks more and more like a mediocre football team, one whose playoff odds took another major blow with this latest loss. The good news for Detroit is that there remain multiple possible paths back to the postseason. The bad news is those paths are only getting narrower, and now the Lions have fully lost control of their destiny.
How the Detroit Lions can clinch a playoff berth
NFC North scenarios
Not only is the division still not out of reach for Detroit, but you can make the argument it's the more viable of the team's two paths to the playoffs. Right now, here are the current NFC North standings:
Team | Overall record | Conference record | Division record |
|---|---|---|---|
Chicago Bears | 10-4 | 6-3 | 1-3 (1-1 vs. MIN, 0-1 vs. DET and GB) |
Green Bay Packers | 9-4-1 | 7-2-1 | 4-0 (2-0 vs. DET, 1-0 vs. CHI and MIN) |
Detroit Lions | 8-6 | 5-5 | 1-3 (0-2 vs. GB, 1-0 vs. CHI, 0-1 vs. MIN) |
Minnesota Vikings | 6-8 | 4-5 | 2-2 (1-1 vs. CHI, 1-0 vs. DET, 0-1 vs. GB) |
The bad news is that Detroit has two teams, the Bears and Packers, ahead of them in the divisional standings. The good news is that their closing schedule presents a real opportunity: The Lions host the Steelers before ending the year with road trips to Minnesota and Chicago. That Bears game is crucial, as it gives Detroit the chance to complete a season sweep and clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker.
If Detroit wins out:
- Chicago finishes 1-2
- Green Bay finishes 1-2
If Detroit finishes 2-1:
- Chicago loses out
- Green Bay loses out
If the Lions manage to close the year 3-0, they'll be 11-6, winning a head-to-head tiebreaker with Chicago while losing it to Green Bay. If the Bears win their other two games, they'll get to 12 wins and guarantee a finish above Detroit. But if Chicago loses either at home against the Packers or on the road in San Francisco — two very tough matchups — they'll be sitting at either 10 or 11 wins and finish behind the Lions. Green Bay already swept the season series, so Detroit will need to win out and have the Packers drop two of three at Chicago, vs. Baltimore and at Minnesota.
If Detroit loses one of their final three games, the road gets much tougher. Even if they win that all-important showdown with Chicago, they'll still only get to 10-7; the Bears will need just one more win to get to 11, while Green Bay will need just one more to get to 10 and edge the Lions based on the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Wild Card scenarios
Now things get even trickier. Assuming that either Green Bay or Chicago holds on to the division, it's difficult to see Detroit's path. It's almost a lock that the Lions finish behind whichever of the Seahawks or Rams loses the race for the NFC West, given that both teams are already at 11 wins. L.A. just claimed the head-to-head tiebreaker with their win over Detroit this weekend, while Seattle has the leg up thanks to their superior conference record (6-3, vs. 5-5 for the Lions).
So we have the four divisional champs plus at least one Wild Card spot sewn up, leaving Detroit to fight for either the No. 6 or No. 7 seed. We know what it will take for them to beat out whichever of Chicago or Green Bay loses out on the NFC North; realistically, they need to win out and get some help to have a chance. And that's also true for the final team the Lions are looking up at right now: the San Francisco 49ers, 10-4 after a win over the Titans this weekend.
San Francisco has already clinched the tiebreaker over Detroit; they've got eight conference wins, and the most Detroit can get to is seven. So unless the Lions win out and the Niners lose out, San Francisco will finish ahead of Detroit in the standings. What does all this add up to? If the Lions win out to finish at 11-6, they'll need either the NFC North runner-up to go 1-2 or the 49ers to lose out.
What are the Detroit Lions’ playoff chances?
As you might imagine, the odds are against Detroit, though they're not as dead as you might think based on the vibes right now. NFL.com gives the Lions a 41% chance to make the playoffs after Week 15, while The Athletic's playoff simulator puts that number at 25%. ESPN's Football Power Index splits the difference at 37.3%.
What are the Detroit Lions’ chances to win NFC North division?
In short: Don't get your hopes up. The Athletic has Detroit's odds of snatching the NFC North at 5%, while ESPN puts it at 6.7%. Which makes sense: Even if the Lions win out (by no means a sure thing), they'll need not just one but two teams to close the next three games at 1-2. If the Packers simply take care of business, it doesn't matter whether Detroit wins its head-to-head against Chicago; the math simply doesn't work in their favor right now.